DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007
...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...
...A LONG TERM DROUGHT CONTINUES BUT RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
HELPED SOME OF THE AREA...
SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST
BROUGHT BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA LAST WEEK.
LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OCCURRED FROM PONTE
VEDRA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH WHICH CAUSED AREAS OF FLOODING. THE LOW
DRIFTED WEST TRAILING ENOUGH MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE TO SPAWN MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH ALSO
PRODUCED LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION AT SITES
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MOST
AREAS RECEIVED AT LEAST 2 TO 3 INCHES OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
DESPITE THE WELCOME RAINS...MOST OF OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONG TERM
DROUGHT. RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR 2007 NOW RANGE FROM AROUND 8 INCHES
AT ALMA TO AROUND 3 INCHES IN GAINESVILLE. THE MOST CRITICALLY DRY
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE AT
LEAST 10 TO 14 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO RECOVER FROM THE 2007
DROUGHT.
THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30 YEAR NORMALS...
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR 2007 FOR SELECTED
CITIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH SEPTEMBER
25TH.
STATION OBSERVED 30 YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL NORMAL
JACKSONVILLE FL 34.24 41.29 -7.05 83
YEAR 2007
GAINESVILLE FL 36.26 38.69 -2.43 94
YEAR 2007
LAKE CITY FL 33.55 44.49 -10.94 75
YEAR 2007
ST SIMONS GA 28.18 35.75 -7.57 79
YEAR 2007
ALMA GA 30.04 37.65 -7.61 78
YEAR 2007
HOMERVILLE GA 29.11 39.56 -10.45 74
YEAR 2007
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...STREAMFLOWS CONTINUE TO RECOVER AS HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS HAVE IMPACTED THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA ALSO
RAISED STREAMFLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL AND INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY IS STILL NEEDED IN THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY. STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH GAGES GENERALLY READING FLOWS THAT ARE AROUND 5%
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SITES ALSO MADE
SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY OVER THE PAST WEEK AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
AFFECTED THE AREA. STREAMFLOWS AND GROUND WATER WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
ALTHOUGH RECENT RAINFALL HAS HELPED REDUCE IMMEDIATE FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS...THE SEASONAL FORECAST OF LA NINA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THIS FALL AND WINTER FAVOR AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER. RESIDENTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER THREATS BY REMOVING YARD DEBRIS
AND CLEARING GUTTERS. ALWAYS USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN CONDUCTING
OUTDOOR BURNS.
SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK (NEXT 10 DAYS)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEK WHICH WILL
BRING A MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO THE LOCAL AREA AND CONTINUE
THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. BY MID-WEEK...MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
TROUGH MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
LOWS NEAR 70 INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LA NINA EPISODE
WHICH MAY PERSIST AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FALL AND
WINTER MONTHS. LA NINA USUALLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
OCTOBER THROUGH MARCH. IF LA NINA CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/
OR THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AT...
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
THIS WILL BE THE LAST BIWEEKLY DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED
BY THIS OFFICE UNLESS DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN TO SEVERE LEVELS PER
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR.
CREDITS...
INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY
DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS
OF FORESTRY FOR FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR
CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT
DISTRICT...SOUTHEAST CLIMATE CONSORTIUM...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC
SURVEY...THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
ENYEDI/HURLBUT