DROUGHT STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
500 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2008
...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT A ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL TO EAST KENTUCKY
ON TUESDAY WITH AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY ONCE
AGAIN GETTING MOST OF THE RAINFALL. AREAS IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF EAST KENTUCKY... WHERE SEVERE DROUGHT STILL
EXISTS ... CONTINUE TO MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIER EVENTS. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY WITH
LEE... MORGAN... AND WOLFE COUNTIES MOVED OUT OF THE /D1/ ABNORMALLY
DRY CATEGORY. OVERALL... TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR AS A COUPLE OF ARCTIC FRONTS MADE THEIR WAY THROUGH
THE REGION... DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
JANUARY 25TH AND 26TH.
THE LATEST EDITION OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR... RELEASED ON
THURSDAY JANUARY 31ST... INDICATES SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS
NOW OCCURRING SOUTH OF A WHITLEY CITY TO HAZARD TO PIKEVILLE LINE.
OTHERWISE... THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTH OF A
SOMERSET... BEATTYVILLE... WEST LIBERTY LINE IS RATED AS
EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ OR MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
.LOCAL AREA AFFECTED...
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR... SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT
CONDITIONS EXIST OVER BELL... HARLAN... AND LETCHER COUNTIES.
MODERATE /D1/ TO SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER
MCCREARY... WHITLEY... KNOX... CLAY... LESLIE... PERRY... KNOTT...
FLOYD AND PIKE COUNTIES.
ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ TO MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER
WAYNE... LAUREL... BREATHITT... MAGOFFIN... JOHNSON AND MARTIN
COUNTIES.
ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER PULASKI...
JACKSON... AND OWSLEY COUNTIES.
.STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS...
AS OF DECEMBER 17TH... HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES REMAIN IN A WATER
SHORTAGE WATCH AS ISSUED BY THE STATE OF KENTUCKY.
.CLIMATE SUMMARY...
JANUARY WAS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL MONTH ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY... DESPITE A VERY COLD SPELL LATE IN THE MONTH. A WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED AT THE JACKSON NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AS 71 DEGREES WAS SEEN ON THE 7TH AND 8TH AND 5
DEGREES OCCURRED ON THE 20TH. DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE SET
AT THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE ON THE 2ND WITH 11 DEGREES AND ON THE
25TH WITH 6 DEGREES. MOST OBSERVING LOCATIONS WERE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MONTH OF JANUARY WITH JACKSON COMING IN AT AN INCH BELOW NORMAL
AND THE LONDON CORBIN AIRPORT COMING IN AT 1.5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
CAVE RUN LAKE WAS THE ONLY OBSERVING LOCATION THAT RECEIVED ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION... WITH AROUND A HALF AN INCH ABOVE NORMAL.
LOOKING LONGER TERM... THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE IS EXPERIENCING
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 60- TO 90-DAY PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER WHERE DECENT DEFICITS CONTINUE... AND THUS THE
DROUGHT LINGERS ON. THE FOLLOWING TABLE BELOW ILLUSTRATES THE
SHORT... MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OR SURPLUSES
BEING OBSERVED AT SEVERAL EAST KENTUCKY OBSERVING STATIONS. THESE
AMOUNTS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION WHICH FELL THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY.
MONTH DEPART| SINCE DEPART| SINCE DEPART
STATION COUNTY TO DATE NRML | 1OCT07 NRML | 1JAN07 NRML
| |
CAVE RUN LAKE ROWAN 3.96 +0.56 | 18.93 +4.87 | 47.26 -3.47
WEST LIBERTY MORGAN 2.51 -0.97 | 17.17 +3.54 | 41.61 -6.71
SLADE 5NE POWELL 1.95 -1.69 | 16.51 +1.35 | 45.52 -6.76
MOUNT VERNON ROCKCASTLE 2.96 -1.36 | 18.83 +2.17 | 43.47 -13.28
BUCKHORN DAM PERRY 3.14 -0.98 | 15.45 +0.76 | 38.11 -12.99
SOMERSET 2N PULASKI 3.41 -0.84 | 18.41 +2.16 | 40.31 -14.73
LONDON ASOS LAUREL 2.47 -1.54 | 14.66 -0.36 | 34.87 -15.68
WFO JACKSON BREATHITT 2.46 -1.10 | 14.81 -0.40 | 37.91 -15.03
MONTICELLO WAYNE 2.69 -1.70 | 13.38 -2.91 | 37.24 -18.13
FISHTRAP LK PIKE 2.03 -1.52 | 9.40 -4.00 | 29.36 -20.01
CARR FORK KNOTT 2.45 -0.78 | 10.83 -2.69 | 29.56 -19.96
MIDDLESBORO BELL 3.80 -1.06 | 10.39 -6.39 | 33.67 -22.48
IT IS ESTIMATED THAT AROUND 16 INCHES OF RAIN WILL NEED TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT THREE MONTHS TO COMPLETELY END THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WOULD EQUATE TO RECEIVING AROUND 3
INCHES MORE THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
.SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
AS OF FRIDAY FEBRUARY 1ST... MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN THE TOP
12 INCHES OF SOIL ARE CURRENTLY AVERAGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND UP TO .6 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE REST OF EAST KENTUCKY. EXPANDING THIS TO INCLUDE THE TOP 72
INCHES OF SOIL REVEALS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST
KENTUCKY.
.RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...
AS OF FRIDAY FEBRUARY 1ST... AREA STREAM FLOWS ARE RUNNING NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS. LEVISA FORK IN THE BIG
SANDY RIVER BASIN IS STILL REPORTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FLOWS.
ALSO... THE CUMBERLAND RIVER AT WILLIAMSBURG IS FLOWING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...
MOST LAKES UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS ARE
NOW IN DRAWDOWN TO WINTER POOL LEVELS.
.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
THE IMMEDIACY OF THE DROUGHT FOR AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS HAS BEEN
LESSENED BY THE RECENT RAINS AND TIME OF YEAR. THE MAIN IMPACT OF
THE RECENT DROUGHT OVER THE WINTER MONTHS... REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS IN THE COMING WEEKS... WILL BE THE SHORT HAY SUPPLY AND
THE EFFECT THIS WILL HAVE ON FARMERS ACROSS THE STATE.
.FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
FIRE WEATHER SEASON IN EAST KENTUCKY STARTS ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 1ST.
FIRE DANGER IS CURRENTLY RATED AS LOW ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY AND
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP THE DANGER
FROM INCREASING.
.PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. EACH STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH... AT THIS
TIME... THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IN THE
FORECAST. THE BEST SHOT AT A MODERATE RAINFALL WILL COME ON TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES BY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN ALTERNATE BETWEEN ABOVE NORMAL AND
BELOW NORMAL AS WAVE AFTER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 60 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
FALL OFF BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK... PROVIDED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER... FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY FEBRUARY 9TH THROUGH FRIDAY
FEBRUARY 15TH... INDICATES A WEATHER PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTHS OF FEBRUARY... MARCH... AND
APRIL OF 2008... ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
INDICATES A WEATHER PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...
FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MADE IN THE DROUGHT AFFLICTED
AREAS AS WE HEAD INTO THE SPRING MONTHS.
.QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
PLEASE CONTACT...
TONY EDWARDS
BRIAN SCHOETTMER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
JACKSON KENTUCKY 41339
606-666-2560
TONY.EDWARDS@NOAA.GOV
BRIAN.SCHOETTMER@NOAA.GOV
.RELATED WEB SITES...
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER WEATHER AND
DROUGHT INFORMATION (ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN LOWER CASE)...
LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFO...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
USGS - HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
COE - HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL
NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV
USDA NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE...7
HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV
MIDWEST CLIMATE WATCH...
HTTP://MRCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/CLIWATCH/WATCH.HTM
UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER CENTER...
HTTP://WWWAGWX.CA.UKY.EDU/DROUGHT.HTML
KENTUCKY DIVISION OF WATER...
HTTP://WWW.WATER.KY.GOV/
KENTUCKY DIVISION OF FORESTRY...
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.KY.GOV/
NWS OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/OHRFC/
.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE
USDA... STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATIONS SITES... COOPERATIVE NETWORK STATIONS...THE USGS...AND
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.
.NEXT ISSUANCE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL NEXT BE UPDATED BY FRIDAY FEBRUARY 8TH.
$$
ABE/SCHOETTMER