Drought Statement: NWS North Platte, NE

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
251 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE...AND 
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MADE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER 
PATTERN IN APRIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES 
MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PLACING WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL 
NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE PERSISTENT 
TRACK...FAVORED SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA FOR 
PRECIPITATION...WHICH INCLUDED HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. THIS PATTERN HAS 
PERSISTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MAY WHICH HAS FAVORED A COOL WET 
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 
SEVEN DAYS FAVORS NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WHICH WILL BRING 
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND NORTH 
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LOCAL AREAS AFFECTED...

AS OF MAY 15TH...ACCORDING TO THE US DROUGHT MONITOR...SEVERE 
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST WEST OF A LINE FROM RUSHVILLE...TO 
ANTIOCH. EAST OF THIS LINE...TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM MERRIMAN...TO 
LISCO...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST. MODERATE DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST WEST OF A GRANT...TO WAUNETA LINE.

.CLIMATE SUMMARY...

APRIL WAS COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL 
NEBRASKA. FOR THE MOST PART...APRIL WAS WETTER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST 
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE EXCEPTION WAS OVER FAR 
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHERE PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH WAS SLIGHTLY 
BELOW NORMAL.

                6 MONTH PRECIP/INCHES     LAST MONTH PRECIP/INCHES 
LOCATION       NOV-APR  NORMAL   DEP   |    APR   NORMAL   DEP       
NORTH PLATTE     5.56     5.27   0.29  |    3.67   1.97    1.70 
VALENTINE        4.08     4.91  -0.83  |    1.39   1.97   -0.58 
BROKEN BOW       4.80     6.03  -1.23  |    3.61   2.28    1.33 
IMPERIAL         3.77     5.61  -1.84  |    2.76   1.94    0.82

                           AVERAGE TEMPERATURE/DEGREE F 
LOCATION      FEB  NORMAL  DEP | MAR  NORMAL  DEP | APR  NORMAL  DEP 
NORTH PLATTE  29.5  29.4   0.1 | 37.0  38.0  -1.0 | 45.0  48.1  -3.1 
VALENTINE     25.4  26.6  -1.2 | 35.5  35.3   0.2 | 44.1  46.1  -2.0 
BROKEN BOW    27.5  26.3   1.2 | 36.5  35.1   1.4 | 44.5  45.5  -1.0 
IMPERIAL      32.1  30.4   1.7 | 39.7  37.8   1.9 | 46.8  47.6  -0.8

.RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED DUE TO RECENT MOISTURE AND 
RUNOFF ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BUT REMAINED BELOW NORMAL. STEADY 
AND NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE RIVER BASINS.

.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...

LAKE LEVELS ENDING THE MONTH OF APRIL REMAINED MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR 
ENDERS DAM AND LAKE MCCONAUGHY.

LAKE MCCONAUGHY GAINED 17500 ACRE FEET FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH TO 
A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 757700 ACRE FEET. THIS WAS AN INCREASE OF 1.5 
PERCENT TO 43.5 PERCENT OF CAPACITY TO END THE MONTH. THIS DOES 
HOWEVER COMPARE TO A LAKE ELEVATION 5.2 FEET ABOVE LAST YEAR'S LAKE 
ELEVATION. TO END THE MONTH...LAKE MCCONAUGHY RECORDED THE HIGHEST 
RESERVOIR STORAGE SINCE MARCH 2003.

ENDERS DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 16900 ACRE FEET WHICH 
REMAINED STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH WITH 39 PERCENT OF CAPACITY. 
RED WILLOW DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 26500 ACRE FEET. 
RESERVOIR CAPACITY ROSE SLIGHTLY TO 73 PERCENT. RED WILLOW DAM 
RECORDED THE HIGHEST RESERVOIR STORAGE TO END THE MONTH SINCE 2000.

OTHER RESERVOIRS WHICH ARE SPRING FED SAW THE USUAL RESERVOIR 
RECHARGE. MEDICINE CREEK DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 36200 
ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY ROSE TO CAPACITY AT 100 PERCENT. 
CALAMUS RESERVOIR RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 127500 ACRE FEET. 
RESERVOIR CAPACITY ROSE TO CAPACITY AT 100 PERCENT. MERRITT 
RESERVOIR RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 66780 ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR 
CAPACITY ROSE TO CAPACITY AT 100 PERCENT.

ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK WAS 107 TO 117 PERCENT OF NORMAL TO END 
THE MONTH OF APRIL...DUE TO THE ALLOTMENT OF UPSTREAM 
RESERVOIRS...DELIVERY OF WATER TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF 
LAKE MCCONAUGHY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. 
THEREFORE LIMITED RELEASES FOR CONSERVATION PURPOSES IS PLANNED...AS 
LAKE MCCONAUGHY REMAINS AT CRITICALLY LOW LAKE LEVELS GOING INTO THE 
IRRIGATION SEASON.

.FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS 
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT THE MOMENT. THIS IS DUE TO THE 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION LIMITING 
THE HIGH FIRE DANGER DAYS TYPICAL IN SPRING BEFORE THE MOISTURE 
RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR SUMMER. THE GROWTH OF COOL SEASON GRASSES 
ARE ALSO LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE FUEL FOR 
BURNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHERE SHORT TO MIXED 
PRAIRIE GRASS STANDS EXIST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN 
TO THE REGION FOR THE SUMMER IN THE FORM OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
LEVELS...LIMITING EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AT LEAST 
TEMPORARILY.

FIRE DANGER CAN BE DETERMINED THROUGH EITHER THE 10-HOUR AND 
100-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURES...OR THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX 
(KBDI). THE KBDI INDEX IS BROKEN INTO FOUR CATEGORIES WHICH ARE USED 
TO DETERMINE THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF GROUND FUELS TO FIRE DANGER. THE 
FOUR CATEGORIES AND A BRIEF DESCRIPTIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

LOW...WET WITH LITTLE DANGER OF FIRE INITIATION
MODERATE...DRYING OCCURRING WITH SOME FIRE DANGER
HIGH...GROUND COVER DRY AND WILL BURN READILY
EXTREME...DEAD AND LIVE FUELS WILL BURN READILY

ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF 
THE KBDI INDEX THANKS TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS OF LIQUID AND FROZEN 
PRECIPITATION. THESE VALUES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MODERATE 
CATEGORY IF A PROLONGED DRY AND WARM PERIOD DEVELOPS ACROSS THE 
REGION...BUT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY JUNE. A DAILY 
GRAPHIC OF THE KBDI INDEX AND DEAD FUEL MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND ON THE 
WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (WFAS) WEB SITE AT:

http://www.wfas.us/

OR THE NORTH PLATTE NWS WEB SITE AT:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lbf/forecasts/firewx/firewx.php

THE NORTH PLATTE NWS WEB SITE ALSO HAS ADDITIONAL DATA AND FORECASTS 
RELATED TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL 
NEBRASKA.

.PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK...AS ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION 
CENTER...CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NEBRASKA. A SIMILAR STORY HOLDS TRUE FOR 
TEMPERATURES...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NORMAL...AND ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH 
THE MONTH OF JUNE.

THE LATEST 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUNE...JULY...AND AUGUST...IS FOR 
EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN 
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD...SLIGHTLY BETTER 
CHANCES EXIST FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WEST OF A LINE FROM 
VALENTINE TO OSHKOSH. EAST OF THIS LINE...EQUAL CHANCES EXIST FOR 
ABOVE...BELOW...AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT 
THIS INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

CHRIS BUTTLER
CLIMATE SERVICES FOCAL POINT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH PLATTE NE
Christopher.Butler@noaa.gov

.RELATED WEB SITES...

LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFORMATION

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lbf/

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND RESERVOIR INFORMATION

http://water.usgs.gov/

US DROUGHT MONITOR

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT
INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...USGS...AND THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PUBLIC POWER
AND IRRIGATION DISTRICT.

.NEXT ISSUANCE...THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED ON THE THIRD THURSDAY 
OF THE MONTH. THE NEXT ISSUANCE WILL BE JUNE 19 2008.

JWS/MM/DP/KAR/CLB