HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008
...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AREA WIDE...
SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA DURING APRIL
BRINGING RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ENDED THE MONTH WITH
0.51 INCHES OF RAINFALL BRINGING THE YEARLY TOTAL UP TO 0.92
INCHES WHICH IS 1.39 INCHES BELOW CLIMATE AVERAGES. NO APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL FELL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WAS NOT SUFFICIENT TO IMPROVE THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER ON APRIL 29...INDICATED D2 DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ACCORDING TO THE USDM...D2
DESIGNATION INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
CONTINUED WARM...DRY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH ALL THE COUNTIES ACROSS THE MIDLAND FORECAST AREA
CONTINUING WITH BURN BANS. AMPLE FUELS FROM THE ABNORMALLY WET
CONDITIONS LAST YEAR CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SEVERAL THOUSANDS OF ACRES HAVE ALREADY BURNED THIS YEAR DUE TO
WILDFIRES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA HAS DELAYED GREEN
UP...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX
(KBDI) AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A
NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS
AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX
RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0 REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND
800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. AS MAY 1...THE KBDI SHOWS THAT MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS FALLS WITHIN THE 500 TO 700 RANGE. THIS RANGE IS
CHARACTERIZED AS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER...EARLY FALL. LOWER LITTER
AND DUFF LAYERS ACTIVELY CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL
BURN ACTIVELY. NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY
TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED BY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. WHEN THESE
CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED OR MET...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS APPROPRIATE.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY THE
TEXAS A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL
IMPACTS WERE NOTED ACROSS WEST TEXAS...HOT...WINDY DAYS WITHOUT
RAIN DRIED OUT PASTURES...LEAVING THEM IN POOR CONDITION. WINTER
WHEAT WAS 80 PERCENT TO 90 PERCENT HEADED AND IN FAIR TO GOOD
CONDITION. PRODUCERS FINISHED THEIR FIRST CUTTING OF ALFALFA.
WATERMELON PLANTING WAS FINISHED IN GLASSCOCK COUNTY. ROW CROP
FARMERS DIVERSIFIED WITH CHILES AND SUNFLOWERS THIS YEAR.
SUNFLOWERS WERE 100 PERCENT PLANTED. CORN WAS IN FAIR TO GOOD
CONDITION...WITH 100 PERCENT PLANTED AND EMERGED. OATS WERE 50
PERCENT HEADED AND IN POOR TO FAIR CONDITION. SOYBEANS WERE IN FAIR
CONDITION.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
ON APRIL 10...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM
BROUGHT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SINCE
MARCH 18. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ENDED UP AFFECTING AREAS FARTHER EAST
WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE WAS REPORTED IN ECTOR COUNTY. IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR HOWARD...SCURRY...AND MITCHELL COUNTIES
DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. OVER
OTHER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDLAND FORECAST AREA..A FEW LOCATIONS
DID RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HELP SLOW
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
ON APRIL 23...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM..DRYLINE...AND COLD FRONT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO MAINLY
THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OCCURRED
ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN AVERAGED 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES. IN ADDITION...REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE AND
SEVERAL TORNADOES WERE RECEIVED.
PRECIPITATION RECORDS INDICATE THAT THE AREA HAS GONE WITH BELOW
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE DECEMBER AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PRIMARILY IMPACTED
AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE AND INCREASED THE RISK FOR WILDLAND
FIRES.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS OUTLOOK ISSUED APRIL 17 INDICATES
THAT WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH
JULY 2008. THESE SIGNALS ARE PRIMARILY A RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LA
NINA CONDITIONS OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN. WHILE LA NINA CONDITIONS
REMAIN STRONG...FORECASTS INDICATED A WEAKENING LA NINA THROUGH
MID SUMMER.
THE LATEST U S SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK SHOWS THAT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH JULY. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND THE PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES THAT TYPICALLY OCCUR
DURING LA NINA EPISODES.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE APRIL 10 AND APRIL 23 STORM SYSTEMS BROUGHT IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO ONLY A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS IN THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA /HSA/. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND EXTREME
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...MOST LOCATIONS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BIG BEND AND MARFA/PRESIDIO REGIONS ONLY
RECEIVED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO NOTHING THROUGH THE MONTH
OF APRIL.
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST INDICATES INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE TIME PERIOD OF MAY 3 THROUGH 7 AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BEGIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...
POOL 24-HR % CONSERVATION
TDY CHG. CAPACITY
LAKE JB THOMAS 2218.85 -0.08 11
LAKE COLORADO CITY 2066.38 -0.02 85
CHAMPION CREEK RESERVOIR 2050.73 -0.02 24
NATURAL DAM SALT LAKE 2447.33 +0.01 49
MOSS CREEK LAKE 2330.35 0.00 72
BRANTLEY RES...CARLSBAD 3199.00 0.00 420
LAKE AVALON - 3N CARLSBAD 3173.18 0.13 28
RED BLUFF DAM 2807.64 -2.99 20
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AREA CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
OUR LOCAL HYDROLOGY WEB PAGE...
http://www.srh.weather.gov/maf/drought/
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
http://www.drought.noaa.gov/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...
http://www.met.tamu.edu/osc/
NWS ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)...
http://www.weather.gov/ahps/
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)...
http://water.usgs.gov/
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE)...
http://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION (IBWC)...
http://www.ibwc.state.gov/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006
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