HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1240 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2008
...DROUGHT/WATER RESOURCE STATEMENT FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE...WATER TABLE
LEVELS...AND STREAM FLOWS ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THESE
FACTORS...THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED FROM SEVERE TO
MODERATE DROUGHT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...AND ARE CLASSIFIED ONLY
AS ABNORMALLY DRY ALONG THE COAST ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MONITOR.
...DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION...
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT WITHIN ONE OF
THESE FIVE CATEGORIES:
D0) ABNORMALLY DRY
D1) MODERATE
D2) SEVERE
D3) EXTREME
D4) EXCEPTIONAL
THE DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON APRIL 8 SHOWS A CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A D1 ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAINS...WITH A D0 TO THE COAST.
A MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED IN ALL OR PORTIONS OF
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DUPLIN, LENOIR, GREENE, PITT, MARTIN.
*DATA PROVIDED BY U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
...PRECIPITATION...
.LAST WEEK/MONTH-TO-DATE...
RAINFALL REPORTS OF 150-300% OF NORMAL SINCE THE FIRST OF APRIL HAVE
DRASTICALLY IMPROVED THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
BEEN PRODUCED FROM SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS ALONG WITH A FEW
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS.
...PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX & NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR...
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS MEASURED BY THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY
INDEX (PDSI) COMPILED FROM DATA THROUGH APRIL 5 SHOWED A DRASTIC
IMPROVEMENT TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN EVENTS SINCE THE LATEST PDSI EXPECT THE NEXT UPDATE
TO SHOW A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT. THE PDSI INDICATES THE PROLONGED AND
ABNORMAL MOISTURE DEFICIENCY OR EXCESS. THE REGIONS ARE CLASSIFIED BY
THEIR CLIMATE DIVISION. THE NUMBERS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
AREA PDSI CATEGORY RAINFALL TO END DROUGHT
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS -0.78 NA 1.97
CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS -0.31 NA
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS -1.95 ABNORMALLY DRY 4.92
...........................................................................
PDSI MODERATE
DROUGHT: -2 TO -2.9
SEVERE DROUGHT: -3 TO -3.9
EXTREME DROUGHT: -4 OR LESS
............................................................................
...RIVER AND STREAM FLOW...
RIVER FLOWS HAVE IMPROVED STATEWIDE. IN THE EAST MANY GAGE SITES ARE
RETURNING TO NORMAL...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING FLOOD STAGE VALUES. WITH
IMPROVED WATER TABLE LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE AND UPSTREAM BASINS EXPECT
STREAM FLOWS TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL LEVELS...IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.
...SOIL MOISTURES...
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
BY ABOUT 25 TO 50 MM FROM THE 5TH OF APRIL...WHICH HAS IMPROVED OUR SOIL
MOISTURE DEFICIT FROM -80 TO -100 MM, TO -40 MM TO -0 MM. THE OUTLOOKS BY
THE GFS FORECAST MODEL FOR SOIL MOISTURE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN SOIL
MOISTURE OF UPWARDS OF 20 MM OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
...CLIMATE OUTLOOK...
CLIMATE REGIME...A MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA EVENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AND HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS. THIS PATTERN
TYPICALLY RESULTS IN BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE SOME MODERATION IN THIS PATTERN IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS SPRING, FOR THE MOST PART, IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MAY
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL.
THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH JUNE CLASSIFIES THE
SOUTHEAST AS "DROUGHT ONGOING, SOME IMPROVEMENT" ACROSS MOST
OF NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE EAST.
THE DROUGHT STATEMENTS WILL NOT BE RE-ISSUED UNLESS A SEVERE DROUGHT (D2)
HAS BEEN RE-CLASSIFIED IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST. WITH A FORECAST OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS NO ADDITIONAL DROUGHT STATEMENTS ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
$$