HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1253 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007
...THE PENNSYLVANIA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION CONTINUES
THE DROUGHT WATCH FOR NINE WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PENNSYLVANIA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION CONTINUES
THE DROUGHT WATCH FOR NINE COUNTIES IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND A
TOTAL OF FIFTY THREE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. AS OF NOVEMBER 15TH...
THE COUNTIES UNDER THE DROUGHT WATCH IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ARE
ARMSTRONG...BUTLER...CLARION...FOREST...GREENE...LAWRENCE...MERCER...
VENANGO AND WASHINGTON.
SEVERAL RAINS OF ONE-HALF INCH OR MORE OVER THE PAST THREE WEEKS
HAVE SLOWED ANY FURTHER DETERIORATION OF THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE GROWING SEASON HAS NEARLY ENDED AND THE WATER
REQUIRED BY VEGETATION IS GREATLY DIMINISHED. MORE OF EACH
RAINFALL WILL NOW GO TO RECHARGING SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUND WATER.
THE 15 NOVEMBER RELEASE OF THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR
INDICATES CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. ONLY
IN MONROE COUNTY OHIO...WETZEL COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA...AND JEFFERSON
COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA WHERE CONDITIONS WERE RATED AS ABNORMALLY DRY.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS
THE PENNSYLVANIA DEP REQUESTS A VOLUNTARY 5 PERCENT REDUCTION IN
NON-ESSENTIAL WATER USE IN ARMSTRONG...BUTLER...CLARION...
FOREST...GREENE...LAWRENCE...MERCER...VENANGO AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. NO IMPACTS OR VOLUNTARY REDUCTIONS HAVE BEEN REQUESTED BY
EITHER THE STATES OF OHIO...MARYLAND OR WEST VIRGINIA.
GROUND WATER IMPACTS...
THE RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER RECENT DAYS HAD A MINIMAL IMPACT
ON THE OVERALL GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS THE 30 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
GROUND WATER LEVEL AT THE USGS GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN THE
NORMAL RANGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
SURFACE WATER IMPACTS...
THE 28 DAY AVERAGE STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL FROM EAST CENTRAL
OHIO ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
SOIL MOISTURE IMPACTS...
SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SOIL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE IN 10 TO 30 PERCENTILE RANGE INDICATING BELOW
NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE IN THE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...SOUTH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
THE FRUIT HARVEST IS NEARLY COMPLETE AND THE CORN HARVEST IS 75 TO
90 PERCENT COMPLETED. THE WINTER WHEAT CROP IS NEARLY ALL PLANTED
WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NAVIGATIONAL IMPACTS...
NO NEAR TERM IMPACTS TO NAVIGATION ON THE REGIONS RIVERS.
RECREATIONAL IMPACTS...
NONE
CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS...
NONE.
.CLIMATE SUMMARY...
OVER THE PAST 90 DAYS PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA HAS GENERALLY AVERAGED
50 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME AREAS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION RECEIVED 100 TO 150 PERCENT NORMAL
RAINFALL.
GROWING SEASON AND YEAR TO DATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
STATION GS PCP GS DFN JAN-PRES PCP JAN-PRES DFN NOV PCP
SLIPPERY ROCK PA 25.84 -1.13 37.54 4.23 1.47
MERCER PA 25.57 -2.26 35.51 -1.83 1.73
BUTLER PA 22.79 -4.53 34.23 -3.03 1.66
PITTSBURGH PA 22.84 -2.69 34.21 0.81 1.75
MOUNT PLEASANT PA 27.52 -2.72 40.21 3.94 2.39
CONNELLSVILLE PA 28.44 0.47 41.70 3.80 2.88
WAYNESBURG PA 24.70 -1.13 36.21 0.98 0.80
CAMBRIDGE OH 20.64 -3.64 34.68 -0.56 0.11
MOUNDSVILLE WV 17.70 -8.06 31.08 -5.49 1.56
GS...GROWING SEASON (1 APRIL - 11 NOVEMBER)
PCP...PRECIPITATION
PRES...PRESENT
DFN...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
.PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST THROUGH NOVEMBER IS FOR A 40
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER
THROUGH FEBRUARY. FOR THE SAME PERIOD THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES FOR
ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN PENNSYLVANIA...WEST VIRGINIA
...AND GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND AND A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN OHIO.
.HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
WITH NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT MONTH OR SO FLOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER SOME FLOWS ARE CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE NORMAL RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
WEEKS.
.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
WITH NO DROUGHT CURRENTLY OCCURRING...THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON
...AND EQUAL OR BETTER CHANCES OF NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE WINTER...
THIS WILL BE THE LAST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT.
SHOULD CONDITIONS DETERIORATE...HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS WILL BE
RESUMED.
.RELATED WEB SITES...
PENNSYLVANIA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER
http://www.depweb.state.pa.us/watershedmgmt/cwp/view.asp?a=1435&q=523309
USGS PENNSYLVANIA DROUGHT CONDITION MONITOR
http://pa.water.usgs.gov/monitor/
USGS GROUND WATER NETWORK
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/
USGS 7-DAY STREAM FLOWS
http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/?m=pa07d&w=maps&r=us
PALMER INDEX
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif
CROP MOISTURE INDEX
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif
SOIL MOISTURE RANKING PERCENTILE
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/img/curr.w.rank.daily.gif
DROUGHT MONITOR OUTLOOK
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif
OHRFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK - GRAPHIC
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml
OHRFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK - TEXT PRODUCT
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ohrfc/HAS/text/wro.txt
.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
PENNSYLVANIA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION (PA-DEP),
PENNSYLVANIA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY (USGS), UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE), UNITED
STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA), OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER
(OHRFC), NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER, CLIMATIC PREDICTION
CENTER, NORTHEAST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER (NRCC), CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER (CPC).
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE PITTSBURGH
192 SHAFER ROAD
MOON TOWNSHIP, PA. 15108.
TELEPHONE: 412-262-2170 FROM 9AM TO 5PM.
EMAIL: PIT-comments@noaa.gov
WJD