HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
800 PM CST FRI FEB 2 2007
...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...
...PERSISTENT BUT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS ENDED THE AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THAT HAS PLAGUED MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION SINCE MAY
2005...
FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OBSERVED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
DECEMBER AND THROUGH MUCH OF JANUARY HAS COMPLETELY REMOVED AGRICULTURAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND WESTERN LOUISIANA, WITH JANUARY MONTHLY
RAINFALL TOTALS OF FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION...WITH AMOUNTS EXCEEDING TEN INCHES COMMON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...GENERALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. MUCH OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FELL BETWEEN THE
THE 13TH AND 15TH OF JANUARY, WHICH CAUSED WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA, AS WELL AS FLOODING OF CREEKS, DITCHES, AND LOW LYING
AREAS. THE RAINFALL RETURNED MANY RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS TO NORMAL OR
HIGHER THAN NORMAL POOL STAGES, ALTHOUGH SEVERAL RESERVOIRS ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS STILL REMAIN SEVERAL FEET BELOW CONSERVATION POOL
STAGE.
AS A RESULT, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TOPSOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS, ALL OF NORTH LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXPERIENCED
SINCE LAST OCTOBER HAS RID THE REGION OF THE AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE MAY OF 2005...BUT SEVERAL MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENTS WILL BE NEEDED TO RID THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS OF
THE ONGOING HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT THAT REMAINS, AS SEVERAL LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS REMAIN SOME TWO TO EIGHT FEET BELOW CONSERVATION POOL STAGE.
TO VIEW THE CURRENT AND SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES (EVERY THURSDAY MORNING)
OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, IT CAN BE ACCESSED ON THE INTERNET AT:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML .
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL DROUGHT STATEMENT ISSUED, UNLESS SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REDEVELOP LATER THIS YEAR.
THE FOLLOWING TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE ACCUMULATED RAINFALL, THEIR
DEPARTURES, AND PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL SINCE THE DROUGHT BEGAN LAST MAY,
2005, WITH TOTALS ENDING ON JANUARY 31, 2007, WHEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS
HAVE OFFICIALLY ENDED:
LOCATION 20+ MONTH RAINFALL TOTAL DEPARTURE % NORMAL
MAY 1, 2005 - JANUARY 31, 2007 FROM NORMAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHREVEPORT LA 68.31 -21.48 76%
MONROE LA 83.40 - 9.04 90%
TEXARKANA AR 61.51 -21.85 74%
LUFKIN TX 69.59 -13.82 83%
TYLER, TX 57.17 -21.78 72%
LONGVIEW, TX 56.66 -29.40 66%
EL DORADO, AR 62.32 -31.96 66%
DEQUEEN, AR 58.40 -38.14 60%
...JANUARY 2007 STATISTICS...
THE TABLE BELOW ARE THE CUMULATIVE JANUARY/YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS,
AS WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...THROUGH JANUARY
31ST:
LOCATION JANUARY: DEPARTURE: % NORMAL (MONTH):
----------------------------------------------------
SHREVEPORT LA 7.64 +3.04 166%
(15TH WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD, DATA SINCE 1872)
MONROE LA 5.86 +0.40 107%
TEXARKANA AR 9.05 +5.48 254%
(7TH WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD, DATA SINCE 1892)
LUFKIN TX 9.94 +5.49 223%
(2ND WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD, DATA SINCE 1948)
TYLER TX 9.29 +5.95 278%
(RECORDS DATA INCOMPLETE, ALTHOUGH THE WETTEST JANUARY SINCE 1985)
LONGVIEW TX 6.93 +2.87 171%
(12TH WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD, DATA SINCE 1902)
EL DORADO AR 7.86 +2.93 159%
(13TH WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD, DATA SINCE 1905)
DEQUEEN AR 4.90 +1.32 137%
(19TH WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD, DATA SINCE 1936)
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS:
BROKEN BOW, OK 5.96 +2.47 171%
IDABEL, OK 5.48 +2.32 173%
MT. HERMAN, OK 5.06 +1.57 145%
OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATIONS:
NASHVILLE, AR 10.12 RUSTON, LA 8.75
MT PLEASANT, TX 8.78 NATCHITOCHES, LA 4.79
MT VERNON, TX 8.25 CLARENCE, LA 4.74
CENTER, TX 8.88 PINELAND, TX 6.08
RUSK, TX 6.30
THE TABLE BELOW ARE THE 4 MONTH OCTOBER 2006 TO JANUARY 2007 RAINFALL
TOTALS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...FOR VARIOUS CITIES
IN THE FOUR STATE REGION (THESE TOTALS HAVE GREATLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE
REMOVAL OF THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA
FOR OVER THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF.):
LOCATION OCTOBER - JANUARY DEPARTURE % NORMAL
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM NORMAL
----------------------------------------------------------
SHREVEPORT, LA 20.20 +1.92 111%
MONROE, LA 29.01 +9.96 152%
TEXARKANA, AR 18.56 +0.95 105%
LUFKIN, TX 29.25 +11.69 167%
TYLER, TX 21.45 +3.73 121%
LONGVIEW, TX 16.79 -1.04 94%
EL DORADO, AR 20.64 +1.78 109%
DEQUEEN, AR 15.33 -4.44 78%
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT FELL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER
HALF OF DECEMBER AND MUCH OF JANUARY HAVE ALLOWED MOST RIVERS AND AREA
LAKES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL POOL STAGE. IN FACT...MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING OCCURRED/IS OCCURRING ON THE NECHES RIVER, ANGELINA RIVER, BAYOU
BODCAU LAKE, BAYOU DORCHEAT, THE OUACHITA RIVER AT FELSENTHAL, THE SULPHUR
RIVER, PORTIONS OF THE SABINE RIVER, WHITE OAK CREEK, LITTLE RIVER, ATTOYAC
RIVER, AND CADDO LAKE. HOWEVER...RESERVOIRS IN NORTHEAST TEXAS SUCH AS LAKE
FORK...LAKE TAWAKONI...LAKE TYLER...AND BOB SANDLIN LAKE REMAIN SOME TWO TO
EIGHT FEET BELOW CONSERVATION POOL STAGE. THIS NUMBER CONTINUES TO DWINDLE
EACH MONTH AS ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS OVER THESE BASINS...BUT SEVERAL
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS ARE REQUIRED TO RETURN THESE RESERVOIRS TO
CONSERVATION POOL STAGE.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
NO BURN BANS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION...AS
TOPSOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. THUS...FIRE DANGERS
REMAIN LOW ACROSS ALL OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
WATER RESTRICTIONS...
VOLUNTARY WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES CONTINUE FOR THE CITY OF
PITTSBURG IN CAMP COUNTY TEXAS, AVINGER AND HUGHES SPRINGS IN CASS
COUNTY, REKLAW IN CHEROKEE COUNTY, LONGVIEW AND WHITE OAK (GREGG
COUNTY), HARLETON (HARRISON COUNTY), JEFFERSON, DAINGERFIELD, LONE
STAR, THE CROSSROADS COMMUNITY AND THE CITY OF NEW LONDON IN NORTHERN
RUSK COUNTY, AND FOR HEMPHILL. THESE CONSERVATION MEASURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONTHS TO COME UNTIL UNDERGROUND WELLS AND AQUIFERS
ARE ABLE TO BECOME FULLY RECHARGED, WHICH COULD TAKE MANY MORE MONTHS.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE PROLONGED COLD AND DAMP WEATHER, MANY EAST TEXAS RANCHERS HAVE
REPORTED HEAVY SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF HAY, RESULTING IN LOW HAY
SUPPLIES. SOME RANCHERS HAVE EVEN RUN OUT OF HAY, AND ARE FORCED TO BUY
ADDITIONAL HAY AT HIGHER PRICES. BUT DESPITE THE COLD AND WET WEATHER
CONDITIONS, CATTLE ARE WELL, AS CALVING SEASON HAS BEGUN.
THREE MONTH SPRING (FEBRUARY-APRIL) OUTLOOK...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, BUT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (IN THE MID 60S) AROUND MIDWEEK. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME (NEXT 6 DAYS OR SO) AS WELL...AS MUCH
OF THE COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. EL NINO CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN,
AND COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY SOMETIME IN FEBRUARY. AS A RESULT, NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MARCH...WHILE WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE.
$$
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