HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1131 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED THROUGH THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER ON APRIL 29...DEPICTS MODERATE AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE MISSED SOME OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS AND SEVERE WEATHER. IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM EVENTS HAVE BROUGHT BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE AREA. JUST IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS...AREAS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY HAVE RECEIVED ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STERLING CITY TO MASON RECEIVED ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO FOUR INCHES. THIS RECENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BROUGHT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO AREA CROPS...BUT THE RAIN HAS MADE CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENTS TO SOIL MOISTURE.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS. THE RAIN HAS ALSO BROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF WILDLAND FIRES CONTINUES AS DRYING WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE FOLLOWED THE RAIN EVENTS. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW DRY AND WINDY PERIODS TO DEPLETE MOISTURE.
AS OF MAY 2...THE FOLLOWING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES SUPPORT A COUNTY WIDE OUTDOOR BURN BAN.
COKE...KIMBLE...STERLING AND SUTTON.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0 REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. AS OF MAY 1...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWS THAT AREAS FROM THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY TO THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY FALL WITHIN THE 400 TO 600 RANGE. THIS RANGE IS CHARACTERIZED AS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER...EARLY FALL. LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS ACTIVELY CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY. NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT. WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE EXCEEDED...EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED APRIL 30 BY THE TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS WERE NOTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...DRY WARM AND WINDY DAYS CONTINUED WITH ALL COUNTIES NEEDING RAIN...A FEW AREAS REPORTED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS... SPRING WORK ON IMPROVED PASTURES IS IN FULL SWING...PRODUCERS WERE APPLYING HERBICIDES AND FERTILIZERS... SOME SORGHUM WAS BEING PLANTED... AREA FARMERS WERE GETTING READY FOR COTTON PLANTING IN THE NEXT MONTH...SMALL GRAINS WERE HEADING OUT BUT MOST STANDS WERE SHORT AND VERY THIN...CUTTING AND BALING OF SOME WHEAT AND OAT FIELDS WAS UNDER WAY...RANGE AND PASTURES IMPROVED WITH RECENT RAINS...LIVESTOCK BODY CONDITIONS IMPROVED AS FORAGES GREENED UP.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
AREAS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS RECEIVED MUCH NEEDED RAIN DURING APRIL. THE FOLLOWING REMARKS SUMMARIZE THE APRIL AND YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL AT ABILENE...SAN ANGELO AND JUNCTION...
IN ABILENE...2.44 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED IN APRIL WHICH WAS 0.77 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL MONTHLY AMOUNT OF 1.67 INCHES. FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY THROUGH APRIL...ABILENE RECEIVED 7.35 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH WAS 2.17 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
IN SAN ANGELO...0.62 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WAS REPORTED IN APRIL WHICH WAS 0.98 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL MONTHLY AMOUNT OF 1.60 INCHES. FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY THROUGH APRIL...SAN ANGELO RECEIVED 5.95 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH WAS 1.36 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
IN JUNCTION...0.86 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WAS REPORTED IN APRIL. THE NORMAL MONTHLY RAINFALL FOR APRIL IN JUNCTION IS ABOUT 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES. FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY THROUGH APRIL...JUNCTION RECEIVED 2.77 INCHES OF RAIN. NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY THROUGH APRIL IN JUNCTION IS ABOUT 5.75 INCHES.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR MAY THROUGH JULY INDICATES THAT THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CLIMATE TRENDS AND INDICATIONS OF WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY THROUGH JULY.
THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MAY THROUGH JULY SHOWS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WHERE IT HAS DEVELOPED. SHORT TERM IMPROVEMENTS OVER AREAS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY SUMMER MONTHS.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... WHILE THE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AREA RESERVOIRS AND STOCK TANKS...THE APPROACH OF SUMMER BRINGS CONCERN THAT OUR SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES WILL RAPIDLY DEPRECIATE. ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATERWATCH... FLOWS IN AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AT THE END OF APRIL 2008...
/ CURRENT CONSERVATION CURRENT % / ELEVATION CAPACITY CAPACITY CONSERVATION RESERVOIR (FT) (AC-FT) (AC-FT) CAPACITY
FORT PHANTOM HILL 1635.60 70036 68870 98 LAKE STAMFORD 1415.70 51570 46170 90 HUBBARD CREEK 1182.58 318070 318070 100 HORDS CREEK LAKE 1897.55 8112 6950 86 LAKE BROWNWOOD 1423.47 131428 124810 95 E.V. SPENCE 1847.72 517272 68750 13 O.C. FISHER 1869.39 119200 9720 8 O.H. IVIE 1541.10 554340 377700 68 TWIN BUTTES (N+S) 1924.20 186200 86610 49 LAKE NASWORTHY 1871.07 10108 8540 84
NEXT ISSUANCE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE... HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/SJT/HTML/CLIMATE/DROUGHT.HTML U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/ OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST... HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/ USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/ CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 7654 KNICKERBOCKER ROAD SAN ANGELO TEXAS 76904 PHONE: 325-944-9445 NWS.SANANGELO@NOAA.GOV
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