DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 340 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2001
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE INTO AUGUST...
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SUMMARY...
THE FLORIDA RAINY SEASON HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF BEING EVEN MORE ACTIVE THAN NORMAL. THE WORD "DROUGHT" NO LONGER ACCURATELY DESCRIBES OUR CURRENT HYDROLOGIC SITUATION. WATER SHORTAGE IS A MUCH BETTER TERM AS AQUIFER LEVELS HAVE YET TO FULLY RECOVER AND THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER REMAINS CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT LONG TERM WATER SHORTAGE... HOWEVER ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SIX WEEKS HAS ELIMINATED MOST OF THE FACTORS COMMONLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DROUGHT. WILDFIRE DANGER IS NO LONGER A THREAT AND AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS HAVE BEEN ALLEVIATED. WHAT REMAINS IS WAITING FOR THE AQUIFER TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. AS EXCESS RAINFALL CAN TAKE A FEW WEEKS TO PERCOLATE DOWN TO THE AQUIFER, SLOW RECOVERY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.
RAINFALL...
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS MEASURED 1.45 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST WHICH IS 0.03 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR...THE TOTAL IS 23.23 INCHES WHICH IS 2.49 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. SINCE THE DROUGHT BEGAN IN OCTOBER 1998...RAINFALL AT TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 30.31 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...FORT MYERS PAGE FIELD HAS MEASURED 3.67 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST WHICH IS 1.93 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR...THE TOTAL IS 28.12 INCHES WHICH IS 3.48 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. SINCE DECEMBER 1998...RAINFALL AT FORT MYERS PAGE FIELD IS 12.74 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
AUGUST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE REGION HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL TOTALS THROUGH THE MORNING OF AUGUST 7 WITH DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL WHEN AVAILABLE.
OBSERVING SITE COUNTY JULY TOTAL DEPT FROM NORM CHIEFLAND LEVY 2.79+0.84 INVERNESS 3SE CITRUS 2.77+0.82 HERN CTY APT (BKV) HERNANDO 1.98 N/A ST. LEO PASCO 4.20+2.38 TAMPA INT APT HILLSBOROUGH 1.45+0.03 PLANT CITY HILLSBOROUGH 4.63+2.70 NWS RUSKIN HILLSBOROUGH 2.19 N/A ST PETE/CLRWTR APT PINELLAS 1.38 N/A ST PETERSBURG PINELLAS 1.10-0.83 LAKELAND POLK 4.61 N/A WINTER HAVEN POLK 3.51+1.84 BRADENTON 5ESE MANATEE 3.35+1.22 VENICESARASOTA 3.66+1.88 AVON PARK 2W HIGHLANDS 2.52+0.91 ARCHBOLD HIGHLANDS 3.53+1.86 PUNTA GORDA 4ESE CHARLOTTE 2.74+0.96 FORT MYERS PAGE LEE3.67+1.93 SW INT APT LEE2.55 N/A
BASED ON INFORMATION FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER... DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO CATEGORY 1...OR MODERATE DROUGHT...ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. CATEGORY 2...OR SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER BASIN. DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TO SUM UP RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS THE REGION...THE HARDEST HIT AREA IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FROM CRYSTAL RIVER TO CHIEFLAND WHERE RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE FROM 32 TO 42 INCHES SINCE OCTOBER 1998. FROM BROOKSVILLE SOUTH TO TAMPA BAY...RAINFALL DEFICITS VARY FROM 12 INCHES TO AS MUCH AS 30 INCHES. DEFICITS OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA ARE GENERALLY 9 TO 19 INCHES. SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHICH INCLUDES THE FORT MYERS AREA IS 4 TO 14 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. AND COASTAL AREAS FROM ST PETERSBURG SOUTH TO VENICE HAVE FAIRED THE BEST WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
STREAM FLOWS HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF TAMPA. THE MYAKKA REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THE ALAFIA IS APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE. THE PEACE...MANATEE...AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVERS ALONG WITH HORSE CREEK ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. IN SHARP CONTRAST...FLOW ON THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER ARE CONTINUES CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW. HOWEVER STAGES HAVE FINALLY CLIMBED ABOVE ONE FOOT.
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT IMPLEMENTED EMERGENCY WATER RESTRICTIONS MAY 1, 2000. THESE RESTRICTIONS LIMIT WATERING TO ONE 3/4 INCH APPLICATION PER WEEK. WATERING MUST BE ACCOMPLISHED BEFORE 10 A.M. OR AFTER 4 P.M. THE EMERGENCY RESTRICTIONS ALSO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO AGRICULTURE, GOLF COURSES, MINING, INDUSTRY AND OTHER WATER USES. AS NECESSARY...LOCAL GOVERNMENTS HAVE IMPOSED TIGHTER RESTRICTIONS.
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT HAS DEVELOPED AN AQUIFER RECOVERY INDICATOR TO MONITOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SINCE GROUND WATER LEVELS RECOVER SLOWER THAN SURFACE WATER...SUCH AS LAKES AND STREAMS...THE WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT WILL USE AQUIFER LEVELS AS A GAUGE ON WHEN TO LIFT EMERGENCY WATER RESTRICTIONS. THIS INDICATOR WILL SHOW HOW CLOSE CURRENT LEVELS ARE TO AVERAGE MONTHLY RANGES. THE NORTHERN AREA COVERS HERNANDO...CITRUS... SUMTER...LAKE...AND MARION COUNTIES. THE CENTRAL AREA COVERS HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS...PASCO...AND POLK COUNTIES. THE SOUTHERN AREA COVERS MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE...AND DESOTO COUNTIES.
AS OF AUG 3...THE AQUIFER WOULD NEED TO RISE THE FOLLOWING AMOUNT TO REACH THE LOWEST RANGE OF NORMAL LEVELS FOR EACH AREA.
NORTH 1.93 FEET UP 0.80 FEET OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS CENTRAL 0.66 FEET UP 1.04 FEET OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS SOUTH 0.89 FEET UP 0.99 FEET OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
RECENT RAINS HAVE ALL BUT ELIMINATED THE THREAT TO THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES. THE AVERAGE COUNTY KBDI IS BELOW 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
SHORT TERM...SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
LONG TERM...FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER...THE FORECAST IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IF THIS FORECAST WERE TO VERIFY, IT WOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON AUG 21.