HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 715 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2008
...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS OF MARCH 1 2008...
AFTER A VERY DRY FALL...MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO ALL WINTER LONG. POWERFUL STORMS CONTINUED TO HIT SOUTHERN COLORADO IN FEBRUARY...RESULTING IN A MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWPACK ON MARCH 1ST. IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN...THE SNOWPACK WAS AT 169% OF AVERAGE...DOWN FROM 173% OF AVERAGE A MONTH AGO AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN HAS NOT SEEN THIS MUCH SNOW ON MARCH 1ST SINCE 1979 WHEN THE SNOWPACK WAS AT 199% OF AVERAGE. IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...THE SNOWPACK WAS AT 152% OF AVERAGE ON MARCH 1ST...UP FROM 147% OF AVERAGE A MONTH AGO. THE ARKANSAS BASIN HAS NOT SEEN THIS MUCH SNOW ON MARCH 1ST SINCE 1962.
AFTER WELL BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER... BOTH THE RIO GRANDE AND ARKANSAS BASINS HAVE SEEN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING EACH OF THE WINTER MONTHS. THE RIO GRANDE BASIN HAS SEEN 296% OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER...222% OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN JANUARY...AND 131% OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN FEBRUARY. THE ARKANSAS BASIN HAS SEEN 232% OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER...163% OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN JANUARY...AND 139% OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN FEBRUARY. WATER YEAR PRECIPITATION IN THE RIO GRANDE AND ARKANSAS BASINS NOW STANDS AT 151% OF AVERAGE...AND 136% OF AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY.
OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE IS RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. STORAGE IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ON MARCH 1ST WAS AT 101% OF AVERAGE OVERALL. IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STORAGE WAS AT 94% OF AVERAGE.
STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE RUNOFF SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN. FOLLOWING ARE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS:
LOCATION % OF AVERAGE RUNOFF PERIOD
RIO GRANDE RIVER RIO GRANDE RESERVOIR INFLOW 150 APR-JUL THIRTY MILE BRIDGE 151 APR-SEP WAGON WHEEL GAP 151 APR-SEP NEAR DEL NORTE 160 APR-SEP SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER SOUTH FORK 167 APR-SEP SAGUACHE CREEK NEAR SAGUACHE 139 APR-SEP ALAMOSA CREEK TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW 164 APR-SEP LA JARA CREEK NEAR CAPULIN 166 MAR-JUL TRINCHERA CREEK TRINCHERA WATER SUPPLY 135 APR-SEP CONEJOS RIVER PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW 150 APR-JUL NEAR MOGOTE 165 APR-SEP CULEBRA CREEK SAN LUIS 135 APR-SEP SAN ANTONIO RIVER ORTIZ 201 APR-SEP LOS PINOS ORTIZ 176 APR-SEP
STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE RUNOFF SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE ARKANSAS BASIN. FOLLOWING ARE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS:
LOCATION % OF AVERAGE RUNOFF PERIOD
ARKANSAS RIVER GRANITE 133 APR-SEP SALIDA 148 APR-SEP CANON CITY 145 APR-SEP ABOVE PUEBLO 142 APR-SEP CHALK CREEK NEAR NATHROP 156 APR-SEP GRAPE CREEK NEAR WESTCLIFFE 153 APR-SEP HUERFANO RIVER NEAR REDWING 155 APR-SEP CUCHARAS RIVER NEAR LA VETA 154 APR-SEP PURGATOIRE RIVER TRINIDAD 125 APR-SEP
THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.
THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON. IF THE ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS OUTLOOK. AN UPDATED OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN EARLY APRIL.
USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY SITUATION. METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.
FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT:
http://weather.gov/pub/
THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COORDINATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE.
LW