FGUS71 KOKX 231640 ESFOKX HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 1140 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2009 WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 2 THIS IS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD FROM JANUARY 23, 2009 THROUGH FEBRUARY 06, 2009. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM JANUARY 28TH THROUGH FEBRUARY 1ST SUGGESTS THAT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM JANUARY 30TH THROUGH FEBRUARY 5TH SUGGESTS THAT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. RECENT PRECIPITATION - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. YEAR TO DATE (JAN 1 - JAN 23, 2009) AVERAGE PRECIPITATION/DEPARTURES IN INCHES... TOTALS / DEP FROM NORMAL NYC AND LONG ISLAND 2 - 3 / -0.5 TO -1.0 SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT 1 - 3 / 0.0 TO -1.0 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY 1 - 2 / -0.5 TO -1.0 LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY 1 - 2 / 0.0 TO -0.5 SNOW CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS PRESENTLY ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW COVER ACROSS NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW COVER ACROSS CONNECTICUT. RIVER ICE - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE US COAST GUARD REPORTS ICE CONDITIONS ON THE HUDSON RIVER... GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE 05% COVERAGE TAPPAN ZEE BRIDGE 20% COVERAGE WEST POINT TO NEWBURGH 100% COVERAGE STREAMFLOW - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS REPORTED ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) WEB PAGES AT HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY WAS ABOVE NORMAL. COMBINED STORAGE IN THE 13 MAJOR RESERVOIRS SERVING NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY IS 95 PERCENT CAPACITY WHICH IS 15 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. COMBINED STORAGE IN THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM IS AT 90 PERCENT CAPACITY WHICH IS 10.5 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE - SOIL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/ AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV. AHPS FLOOD FORECASTS - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) GENERATES PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS (RIVER LEVELS, SOIL MOISTURE, EXTENT AND CONDITION OF ANY SNOWPACK) ALONG WITH 50 YEARS OF HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA. FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS AHPS INDICATES THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ FOR DETAILED AHPS INFORMATION. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. HOWEVER...THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 6TH 2009. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: WEATHER.GOV/NYC. $$