Flood Potential Outlook: NWS Arkansas Red River Forecast Center; Tulsa, OK

FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, ABRFC, TULSA, OKLAHOMA
500 PM CST, THURSDAY, MAR 9, 2005

COLORADO -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN

THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN IN COLORADO HAS EXPERIENCED APPROXIMATELY
79 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND HAS ACCUMULATED 88 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE SNOWPACK THIS WATER YEAR TO DATE (A MORE DETAILED TABLE IS
INCLUDED BELOW). THIS WATER YEAR`S TOTALS, TO DATE, ARE ABOUT 110
PERCENT OF LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME. SNOW PACK IS CONCENTRATED IN THE
HEADWATERS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER ABOVE SALIDA. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ABOVE SALIDA ARE AS MUCH AS 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BELOW
SALIDA AND IN THE HUERFANO, CUCHARAS, AND PURGATOIRE RIVER BASINS,
SNOWPACK IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E
BASED ON MOUNTAIN DATA FROM NRCS SNOTEL SITES
AS OF MONDAY, MARCH 6, 2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION
DATA SITE NAME (FT) % %
CURRENT AVERAGE AVG CURRENT AVERAGE AVG
---------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
APISHAPA 10000 0. 0 6. 7 0 4. 6 9. 6 48
BRUMLEY 10600 10. 7 8. 2 130 3. 5 11. 0 123
FREMONT PASS 11400 18. 7 13. 4 140 16. 3 12. 8 127
MEDANO PASS 9649 0. 0 5. 9 0 5. 6 7. 0 80
PORPHYRY CREEK 10760 12. 3 13. 2 93 11. 4 12. 5 91
SOUTH COLONY 10800 8. 2 15. 2 54 9. 9 19. 5 51
WHISKEY CK 10220 -M 8. 6 * 6. 1 12. 7 48
----- -----

BASIN - WIDE PERCENT OF AVERAGE 88 79

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC), SOIL MOISTURE IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS GENERALLY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. AS A PERCENT
OF NORMAL, SOIL MOISTURE GENERALLY INCREASES AS ONE MOVES FROM THE
MOUNTAINS OUT INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE ARKANSAS RIVER IS FLOWING
AT NEAR - NORMAL LEVELS. AVERAGE RESERVOIR CONTENTS AT THE END OF
FEBRUARY WERE 31 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AND 99 PERCENT OF LAST YEAR.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING (MAR - APR - MAY), THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING INCREASED CHANCES (33 - 40%) OF
EXPERIENCING ABOVE - NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW - NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IN ALL OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE ARKANSAS RIVER ABOVE SALIDA IS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING NORMAL
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS AN AVERAGE RISK OF
FLOODING IN THAT PART OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN INCLUDING THE PURGATOIRE,
CUCHARAS, HUERFANO, AND LOWER ARKANSAS RIVERS AND GRAPE CREEK IS IN
A VERY DIFFERENT SITUATION. WITH BELOW - AVERAGE SNOWPACK, AMPLE
RESERVOIR STORAGE, BELOW - NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, AND
INCREASED CHANCES OF HOT, DRY, SPRING WEATHER, THIS SPRING`S FLOOD
OUTLOOK IS FOR A BELOW - AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING IN THOSE PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS SPRING.

A HOT DRY SPRING MAY RESULT IN A MORE RAPID RUN - OFF OF THE SNOW - MELT
THAN IS NORMALLY EXPECTED. THIS MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING.

A GRAPHICAL AND TABULAR DEPICTION OF SPRING FLOODING CLIMATOLOGY IS
AVAILABLE AT:

WWW. SRH. NOAA. GOV/TUA/FLOODCLIMATE/FLOODCLIMATE. PHP

EXCEPT FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER ABOVE SALIDA,
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE U. S. DROUGHT
MONITOR INDICATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN IN
COLORADO IS ABNORMALLY DRY OR IN A STATE OF MODERATE DROUGHT. THE
CPC`S US SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST OR INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 3 MONTHS.

THIS PRODUCT GENERALLY DEFINES THE RISK OF LONG - TERM RIVER FLOODING.
IT DOES NOT ASSESS THE SHORT - TERM RISK OF FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
FLASH - FLOODING. LOCALIZED, HIGH - INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN CREATE FLASH-
FLOODING AT ANY TIME. THIS IS TRUE EVEN DURING PERIODS OF DROUGHT.

COLORADO ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION
AS OF WEDNESDAY: MARCH 6, 2006

FEB16 - JUN15 50% EXCEEDANCE MAXIMUM WEEKLY 50% EXCEEDANCE
STATION MAXIMUM STAGE (FT) STAGE (FT)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
LEADVILLE 3. 9 3. 9
SALIDA 5. 9 5. 9
WELLSVILLE 6. 9 6. 9
PARKDALE 6. 1 6. 1
CANON CITY 8. 9 8. 9
PORTLAND 5. 7 5. 7
PUEBLO 6. 9 6. 8

NEW MEXICO -- CANADIAN RIVER BASIN

THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN IN NEW MEXICO HAS EXPERIENCED ABOUT 50
PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND 8 PERCENT OF AVERAGE SNOWPACK
ACROSS ITS MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS THIS WATER YEAR (A MORE DETAILED
TABLE IS INCLUDED BELOW). PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE PLAINS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E
BASED ON MOUNTAIN DATA FROM NRCS SNOTEL SITES
AS OF WEDNESDAY: MONDAY, MARCH 6, 2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION
DATA SITE NAME (FT) % %
CURRENT AVERAGE AVG CURRENT AVERAGE AVG
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE BASINS
CULEBRA #2 10500 -M 10. 7 * -M 10. 9 *
ELK CABIN 8210 . 0 3. 8 0 3. 1 8. 6 36
GALLEGOS PEAK 9800 2. 9 9. 9 29 6. 8 11. 6 59
NORTH COSTILLA 10600 . 0 4. 8 0 6. 6 9. 9 67
RED RIVER PASS #2 9850 -M 6. 8 * 4. 8 8. 1 59
SANTA FE 11445 -M 11. 8 * -M 13. 2 *
TOLBY 10180 . 3 7. 1 4 5. 6 10. 1 55
TRINCHERA 10860 -M 8. 3 * 4. 8 9. 3 52
WESNER SPRINGS 11120 . 0 13. 1 0 5. 0 15. 2 33
----- -----
BASIN WIDE PERCENT OF AVERAGE 8 50

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC), SOIL MOISTURE IN
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO IS BELOW NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR
NORMAL IN THE PLAINS. THE CANADIAN RIVER AND ITS HEADWATERS ARE
GENERALLY FLOWING AT NORMAL TO BELOW - NORMAL LEVELS. AT THE END OF
FEBRUARY, CONCHAS RESERVOIR CONTENTS WERE 31 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AND
148 PERCENT OF LAST YEAR.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON (MAR - APR - MAY) THE CPC CALLS
FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE (40 - 50%) OF ABOVE - NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEY
ALSO INDICATE AN INCREASED CHANCE (33 - 40%) OF BELOW - NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THAT PERIOD.

WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF HOT, DRY, SPRING WEATHER, ALMOST NO
SNOWPACK, AND BELOW - NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE, THIS SPRING`S FLOOD OUTLOOK
IS FOR A BELOW - AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING.

A GRAPHICAL AND TABULAR DEPICTION OF SPRING FLOODING CLIMATOLOGY IS
AVAILABLE AT:

WWW. SRH. NOAA. GOV/TUA/FLOODCLIMATE/FLOODCLIMATE. PHP

CURRENT DROUGHT ASSESSMENTS INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS DOMINATE ALL OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. CPC`S US SEASONAL
DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MAY.

NEW MEXICO ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION
AS OF WEDNESDAY: MARCH 6, 2006

FEB16 - JUN15 50% EXCEEDANCE MAXIMUM WEEKLY 50% EXCEEDANCE
STATION MAXIMUM STAGE (FT) STAGE (FT)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
VERMEJO RIV @ DAWSON 3. 8 3. 8
CIMARRON RIV @ CIMARRON 0. 9 0. 9
MORA RIV @ GOLONDRINAS 1. 6 1. 6

THIS PRODUCT GENERALLY DEFINES THE RISK OF LONG - TERM RIVER FLOODING.
IT DOES NOT ASSESS THE SHORT - TERM RISK OF FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
FLASH - FLOODING. LOCALIZED, HIGH - INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN CREATE FLASH-
FLOODING AT ANY TIME. THIS IS TRUE EVEN DURING PERIODS OF DROUGHT.

KANSAS

THE 2006 WATER - YEAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS ARE
ABOUT AVERAGE IN THE WEST BUT ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST.
THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOWPACK IN SOUTHERN KANSAS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) INDICATES THAT SOIL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS IS NORMAL IN THE WEST AND DECREASES TOWARDS
THE EAST. STREAM FLOWS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN KANSAS ARE GENERALLY
NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE ARE
ISOLATED GAGES REPORTING NEAR - NORMAL DISCHARGE. RESERVOIRS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS ARE, ON AVERAGE, AT 98 PERCENT OF THEIR CONSERVATION
POOL WITH MORE THAN 100 PERCENT OF THE FLOOD - CONTROL STORAGE
CURRENTLY AVAILABLE.

THE CPC IS INDICATING EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE - NORMAL, BELOW - NORMAL,
AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS SPRING (MAR - APR-
MAY). CPC IS ALSO CALLING FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE (33 - 40%) OF BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THAT PERIOD. WITH EMPTY FLOOD - CONTROL
POOLS AND NORMAL TO BELOW - NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, THIS
SPRING`S FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS IS FOR A SLIGHTLY BELOW-
AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING.

A GRAPHICAL AND TABULAR DEPICTION OF SPRING FLOODING CLIMATOLOGY IS
AVAILABLE AT:

WWW. SRH. NOAA. GOV/ABRFC/FLOODCLIMATE/FLOODCLIMATE. PHP

THE U. S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES SOUTHERN KANSAS IS ABNORMALLY DRY
AT THE WESTERN BORDER BUT NOT YET IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE SEVERITY
OF CONDITIONS INCREASES TO THE EASTERN BORDER WHERE SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED. CPC`S SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
PERSISTENT OR WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MAY.

THIS PRODUCT GENERALLY DEFINES THE RISK OF LONG - TERM RIVER FLOODING.
IT DOES NOT ASSESS THE SHORT - TERM RISK OF FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
FLASH - FLOODING. LOCALIZED, HIGH - INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN CREATE FLASH-
FLOODING AT ANY TIME. THIS IS TRUE EVEN DURING PERIODS OF DROUGHT.

MISSOURI

PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI HAS BEEN MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE 2006 WATER YEAR (OCTOBER - FEBRUARY). THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO SNOWPACK IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI IS WELL BELOW - NORMAL. RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI ARE FLOWING AT MUCH BELOW - NORMAL LEVELS.

THE CPC IS INDICATING EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE - NORMAL, BELOW NORMAL AND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MAY. WITH MUCH BELOW-
AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, THIS SPRING`S FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR A
BELOW - AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING.

A GRAPHICAL AND TABULAR DEPICTION OF SPRING FLOODING CLIMATOLOGY IS
AVAILABLE AT:

WWW. SRH. NOAA. GOV/TUA/FLOODCLIMATE/FLOODCLIMATE. PHP

THE U. S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI IS
EXPERIENCING A SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT. CPC`S SEASONAL DROUGHT
OUTLOOK CALLS FOR PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MAY ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE IMPROVEMENT IN ISOLATED AREAS.

THIS PRODUCT GENERALLY DEFINES THE RISK OF LONG - TERM RIVER FLOODING.
IT DOES NOT ASSESS THE SHORT - TERM RISK OF FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
FLASH - FLOODING. LOCALIZED, HIGH - INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN CREATE FLASH-
FLOODING AT ANY TIME. THIS IS TRUE EVEN DURING PERIODS OF DROUGHT.

ARKANSAS

PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS FOR THE 2006 WATER YEAR
(OCTOBER - FEBRUARY) ARE MUCH BELOW - AVERAGE. WATER YEAR - TO - DATE TOTALS
DECREASE, AS A PERCENT OF NORMAL, TOWARD THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE
STATE. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOWPACK IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC), SOIL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS IS MUCH BELOW - NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS ARE GENERALLY FLOWING AT
BELOW - NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW - NORMAL LEVELS. RESERVOIRS IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS ARE, ON AVERAGE, NEAR 93 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION STORAGE,
WITH ALL OF THE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE.

THE CPC IS FORECASTING AN INCREASED CHANCE (33 - 40%) OF ABOVE - NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS SPRING. CPC IS ALSO CALLING
FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL, ABOVE NORMAL, OR BELOW - NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. WITH EMPTY FLOOD - CONTROL POOLS, EXTREMELY DRY SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND INCREASED CHANCES OF A HOT SPRING, THIS
SPRING`S FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR A BELOW - AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING.

A GRAPHICAL AND TABULAR DEPICTION OF SPRING FLOODING CLIMATOLOGY IS
AVAILABLE AT:

WWW. SRH. NOAA. GOV/TUA/FLOODCLIMATE/FLOODCLIMATE. PHP

THE U. S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES WESTERN ARKANSAS IS EXPERIENCING
A MODERATE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. CPC`S SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MAY ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT.

THIS PRODUCT GENERALLY DEFINES THE RISK OF LONG - TERM RIVER FLOODING.
IT DOES NOT ASSESS THE SHORT - TERM RISK OF FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
FLASH - FLOODING. LOCALIZED, HIGH - INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN CREATE FLASH-
FLOODING AT ANY TIME. THIS IS TRUE EVEN DURING PERIODS OF DROUGHT.

OKLAHOMA

PRECIPITATION IN OKLAHOMA DURING WATER - YEAR 2006 (OCTOBER - FEBRUARY)
HAS BEEN BELOW - AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FROM
SOUTH - CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD, RAINFALL HAS BEEN EVEN MORE
SCARCE. PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THAT AREA ARE MUCH BELOW NORMAL. THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE IS BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL. THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO SNOWPACK IN OKLAHOMA.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC), SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OKLAHOMA RANGE FROM NORMAL IN THE PANHANDLE TO
BELOW - NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOIL MOISTURE IN A
LARGE PART OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA IS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. STREAMFLOWS
IN WEST - CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. RIVERS IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ARE FLOWING AT BELOW-
NORMAL LEVELS. THE RED RIVER IS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL WITH ISOLATED
GAGES REPORTING NEAR NORMAL DISCHARGE. STREAM GAGES IN THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE ARE REPORTING EXTREMELY LOW
DISCHARGES EVEN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RESERVOIRS IN OKLAHOMA ARE,
ON AVERAGE, NEAR 76 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION STORAGE, WITH MOST OR ALL
OF THE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE.

THE CPC IS INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE (33 - 40%) OF ABOVE - NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS SPRING (MAR - APR - MAY). THEY ALSO CALL FOR AN
INCREASED CHANCE (33 - 40%) OF BELOW - NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE
PANHANDLE. IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE THE CPC CALLS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE - NORMAL, BELOW - NORMAL, AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS
SPRING.

WITH EMPTY FLOOD - CONTROL POOLS, MUCH BELOW - NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED CHANCES OF A HOT, DRY, SPRING, THIS
SPRING`S FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR A BELOW AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING.

A GRAPHICAL AND TABULAR DEPICTION OF SPRING FLOODING CLIMATOLOGY IS
AVAILABLE AT:

WWW. SRH. NOAA. GOV/ABRFC/FLOODCLIMATE/FLOODCLIMATE. PHP

THE U. S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES OKLAHOMA IS EXPERIENCING A
MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN AS ONE MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA ARE DESCRIBED AS
EXCEPTIONAL. CPC`S SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLS FOR PERSISTENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WESTERN OKLAHOMA. IN THE EAST, CPC
INDICATES THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

THIS PRODUCT GENERALLY DEFINES THE RISK OF LONG - TERM RIVER FLOODING.
IT DOES NOT ASSESS THE SHORT - TERM RISK OF FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
FLASH - FLOODING. LOCALIZED, HIGH - INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN CREATE FLASH-
FLOODING AT ANY TIME. THIS IS TRUE EVEN DURING PERIODS OF DROUGHT.

TEXAS

PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS FOR THE 2006 WATER - YEAR
(OCTOBER - FEBRUARY) HAVE VARIED. RAINFALL IN THE PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
ABOUT AVERAGE. AS COMPARED TO THE 30 - YEAR NORMALS, RAINFALL HAS
DECREASED TO THE EAST, DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST CORNER OF TEXAS, PRECIPITATION SINCE OCTOBER IS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC), SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE WATER - YEAR - TO-
DATE PRECIPITATION FIGURES. SOIL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOIL MOISTURE DECREASES TO
THE EAST AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. SOILS IN THE TEXAS - ARKANSAS - OKLAHOMA TRI - STATE AREA ARE
EXTREMELY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE CANADIAN RIVER AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE GENERALLY FLOWING AT BELOW-
NORMAL LEVELS WITH ISOLATED GAGES NEAR NORMAL. RESERVOIR STORAGE IN
THE NORTH TEXAS RESERVOIRS VARIES CONSIDERABLY. LAKE MEREDITH IS AT
7. 9 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION POOL WHILE LAKE TEXOMA IS AT 94 PERCENT.

THE CPC IS INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE - NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR NORTHERN TEXAS (33 - 40%) AND THE PANHANDLE(40 - 50%) THIS SPRING
(MAR - APR - MAY). THEY ALSO INDICATE AN INCREASED (33 - 40%) CHANCE OF
BELOW - NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE PANHANDLE. CPC CALLS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES FOR ABOVE - NORMAL, BELOW - NORMAL, AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH FLOOD CONTROL AND CONSERVATION STORAGE
GENERALLY AVAILABLE, DRY SOILS AND HOT, DRY SPRING WEATHER MORE LIKELY,
THE RISK OF SPRING FLOODING IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN TEXAS AND IN THE PANHANDLE.

A GRAPHICAL AND TABULAR DEPICTION OF SPRING FLOODING CLIMATOLOGY IS
AVAILABLE AT:

WWW. SRH. NOAA. GOV/ABRFC/FLOODCLIMATE/FLOODCLIMATE. PHP.

THE U. S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES NORTHERN TEXAS IS EXPERIENCING A
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE
PANHANDLE AND CONDITIONS WORSEN TOWARDS THE EASTERN END OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. CPC`S SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLS FOR PERSISTENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE AND RED RIVER VALLEY.
THEY CALL FOR POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA - TEXAS - ARKANSAS TRI - STATE BOUNDARY.

THIS PRODUCT GENERALLY DEFINES THE RISK OF LONG - TERM RIVER FLOODING.
IT DOES NOT ASSESS THE SHORT - TERM RISK OF FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
FLASH - FLOODING. LOCALIZED, HIGH - INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN CREATE FLASH-
FLOODING AT ANY TIME. THIS IS TRUE EVEN DURING PERIODS OF DROUGHT.

THANKS TO USGS FOR STREAMFLOW CONDITION DATA, USACE FOR RESERVOIR
CONDITION DATA, THE NRCS FOR SNOTEL DATA, AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER FOR SOIL MOISTURE DATA.

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