UPPER MIDWEST - SPRING OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER CHANHASSEN MN
1100 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006
FOR A LINK TO THE NCRFC 2006 SPRING OUTLOOK SUMMARY...WHICH
CONTAINS SEVERAL GRAPHICS THAT RELATE TO THE SNOWMELT SEASON
ANTECEDENT AND CURRENT HYDROMETEORLOGIC CONDITIONS REFER
TO THE NCRFC WEB PAGE http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc/
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LATE MARCH 2006 BASIN CONDITIONS
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HUDSON BAY DRAINAGE
CURRENT CONDITIONS
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH RIVER BASIN:
SNOW DEPTHS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED SINCE MID MARCH BUT HIGHER LEVELS
OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT REMAIN. BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF WATER IS
COMMON FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL
ESPECIALLY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION FOR
MARCH HAS AVERAGED AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW...SOIL MOISTURE
LEVELS CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... ESPECIALLY FOR THE HEADWATERS AREA
SOUTH OF FARGO ND.
DEVILS LAKE BASIN:
SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WESTERN PORTION UP TO 3 TO
6 INCHES IN THE EASTERN PORTION. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES. TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR MARCH.
SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL.
SOURIS RIVER BASIN:
ONLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN IS REPORTING SNOW ON THE GROUND...
JUST 1 OR 2 INCHES WITH WATER CONTENTS LESS THAN AN INCH. PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MARCH HAS CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL.
FORECAST CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FORECAST TEMPERATURES AVERAGE IN THE 40S FOR
HIGHS AND AROUND FREEZING FOR LOWS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF APRIL. ADDITIONALLY,THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THE RATE OF SNOWMELT.
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GREAT LAKES DRAINAGE
CURRENT CONDITIONS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR:
REMAINING SNOW COVER IS 6 TO 12 INCHES. TEMPERATURES AVERAGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MARCH.
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS:
SNOW COVER IS 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA...WITH 20 TO 30
INCHES IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MARCH.
MENOMINEE RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BASINS:
SNOW DEPTHS ARE 10 TO 15 INCHES FOR SOME AREAS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND IN THE MENOMINEE BASIN OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER
PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL FOR MARCH.
GRAND...KALAMAZOO...ST. JOSEPH...SAGINAW...WHITE RIVER BASINS AND
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN STREAMS:
THERE IS LITTLE OR NO SNOW REMAINING IN THESE BASINS...HOWEVER ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH HAS KEPT STREAM FLOWS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH AVERAGED AROUND NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR MARCH.
FORECAST CONDITIONS
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS AROUND FREEZING OR ABOVE.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF
APRIL...ESPECIALLY FOR UPPER MICHIGAN. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S COULD INCREASE EFFICIENCY OF THE SNOWMELT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRAINAGE
CURRENT CONDITIONS
TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAINSTEM
MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER - MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN:
VERY LITTLE SNOW COVER REMAINS. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WERE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.
WISCONSIN TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER - CHIPPEWA AND
WISCONSIN RIVER BASINS:
FOR THE UPPER REACHES OF THESE BASINS SNOW COVER IS AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES
WHILE LITTLE OR NO SNOW REMAINS IN THE SOUTH. WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW
IS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES. SOIL MOISTURE AVERAGES NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
IOWA TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER - SKUNK...WAPSIPINICON...
MAQUOKETA...CEDAR...IOWA RIVERS...DES MOINES RIVER BASINS:
PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH FOR MUCH
OF IOWA EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE TOTALS AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. NO
SNOW COVER REMAINS IN IOWA. TEMPERATURES AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH.
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER - ROCK RIVER...
KASKASKIA...BIG MUDDY RIVER...ILLINOIS RIVER...MERAMEC...FABIUS...FOX...
SALT...AND CUIVRE RIVER BASINS:
NO SNOW COVER REMAINS IN MISSOURI OR ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES AVERAGED
BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH. SOME FLOODING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND SNOW IN MID MARCH BUT STREAMFLOWS HAVE RETURNED TO NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL CONDITIONS.
MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAINSTEM
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM THE HEADWATER AREA TO RED WING MN:
ONLY 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ON THE GROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI HEADWATERS...WITH LITTLE SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS AREA IS 2 TO 4
INCHES. TEMPERATURES AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL FOR MARCH.
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LAKE CITY MN TO CHESTER IL:
THERE CURRENTLY IS NO SNOW COVER AND NO GROUND FROST HAS BEEN REPORTED.
FORECAST CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FORECAST TEMPERATURES AVERAGE IN THE 40S FOR
HIGHS AND AROUND FREEZING FOR LOWS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF APRIL. ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THE RATE OF SNOWMELT.