SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON MA 1004 PM EDT THU APR 13 2006
...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /9/
THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MAINE. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED FOR THIS SEASON ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RIVER ICE HAS...BY IN LARGE...MOVED OUT OF NORTHERN MAINE RIVERS DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...
AFTER A VERY WET FALL AND EARLY WINTER ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THE LAST 2 MONTHS HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. NOW THAT WE HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO SPRING...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF APRIL INTO EARLY MAY. CURRENTLY...MEDIUM RANGE NUMERICAL MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW NO REAL DOMINANT PATTERN TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY NEUTRAL AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF APRIL WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA (PNA) PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM NEGATIVE TO NEUTRAL OR PERHAPS WEEKLY POSITIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF MAY.
SINCE THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT SHOWING ANY CLEARLY DEFINED TREND TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN OVER NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. WE DO BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS WHICH IS QUITE TYPICAL OF SPRING. WHERE THEY EXACTLY SET UP WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH IF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. RIGHT NOW...WE DON'T SEE ANY MAJOR STORMINESS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE REGION...HOWEVER...IN SPRING...THINGS CAN CHANGE QUITE RAPIDLY. THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR 21 THROUGH 27 APRIL CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. PRECIPITATION DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH BELOW NORMAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF MAINE...THE MELT SEASON IS NEARING ITS COMPLETION NOW. ELSEWHERE...ONLY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE HAVE ANY SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND...AND THAT SNOW IS FOUND MAINLY ABOVE 1500 FEET ON NORTH FACING SLOPES.
...NEW YORK STATE...
THE ONLY SNOW OF ANY CONSEQUENCE LEFT IN NEW YORK STATE IS FOUND ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAIN RANGE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND EVEN THERE...SNOW IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET NOW. ABOVE ABOUT 1500 FEET...THERE IS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND MAINLY ON NORTH FACING SLOPES. THERE IS MUCH LESS SNOW ON SOUTH FACING SLOPES EVEN ABOVE THE 1500 FOOT MARK. ON AVERAGE...THE SNOWPACK ABOVE 1500 FEET CONTAINS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN WELL SHELTERED AREAS AND LOWER AMOUNTS IN EXPOSED OPEN AREAS. SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ARE NOW NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS TYPICALLY GONE BY MID APRIL. OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...HOWEVER...SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SPRING.
...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS NO SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND. WHILE THAT IS NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...TYPICALLY IN MID-APRIL THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AT LEAST THE BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
ACROSS THE STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE...THE ONLY SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. IN THESE AREAS...THE SNOW IS MOSTLY FOUND ABOVE 1500 FEET ON NORTH FACING SLOPES AND IN HEAVILY WOODED AREAS. NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...SECOND CONNECTICUT LAKE REPORTED 11 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND AS OF THIS MORNING. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY FOUND ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE WHITE MOUNTAIN RANGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR MOUNT WASHINGTON. THE DEEPER SNOWPACK REGIONS STILL CONTAIN BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF WATER...HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOW COMPRISING ONLY A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF MOST DRAINAGE BASINS SO THEY ARE NOT TREMENDOUSLY SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICALLY. SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE GRANITE STATE...EXCEPT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE IT IS NORMAL FOR THE SNOW TO BE GONE BY NOW.
...VERMONT...
ACROSS THE STATE OF VERMONT...ANY SNOW IS CONFINED TO THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. IN THESE AREAS...ANY SNOW IS GENERALLY FOUND ABOVE 1500 FEET WHERE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 INCHES STILL COVERS SOME NORTH FACING SLOPES ABOVE 2000 FEET. FOR EXAMPLE...AS RECENTLY AS YESTERDAY...15 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW WAS REPORTED AT AN ELEVATION OF 2500 FEET ON EAST HAVEN MOUNTAIN IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT AND THE PACK CONTAINED ABOUT 6 INCHES OF WATER. MUCH LIKE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...THIS SNOW ONLY COMPRISES A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF INDIVIDUAL DRAINAGE BASINS SO IT IS NOT TREMENDOUSLY SIGNIFICANT. ACROSS VERMONT...SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT NEAR NORMAL IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WHERE IT IS TYPICAL FOR THE SNOW TO HAVE DISAPPEARED BY THE MIDDLE OF APRIL.
...MAINE...
IN MAINE...SNOW IS NOW CONFINED TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGIONS AND NORTHWEST LOGGING WOODS. ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE VALLEYS ARE MOSTLY BARE NOW. ABOVE 1000 FEET...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW FOUND ON ESPECIALLY NORTH FACING SLOPES WHERE DEPTHS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES ARE PROBABLY STILL COMMON. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LOGGING WOODS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ON THE GROUND IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED AREAS ALTHOUGH ANY EXPOSED AREAS ARE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO BARE GROUND NOW. SNOW DEPTHS IN MAINE ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE BUT BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR MAINE. ALONG THE COAST...SNOW DEPTHS ARE NEAR NORMAL AS THE SNOW HAS TYPICALLY ALL BUT MELTED AS OF THE MIDDLE OF APRIL.
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGIONS OF MAINE...LESS THAN AN INCH OF WATER IS FOUND IN ANY SNOWPACK BELOW 1000 FEET. ABOVE 1000 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SHELTERED NORTH FACING SLOPES...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WERE STILL BEING REPORTED AS OF EARLIER THIS WEEK. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LOGGING WOODS OF MAINE ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE NOW ALTHOUGH EXPOSED AREAS ARE REPORTING MUCH LESS WATER IN THE PACK. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MAINE ARE NOT THAT FAR FROM NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF APRIL. ALONG THE COAST AS WELL...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR NORMAL SINCE THE SNOW IS USUALLY GONE BY NOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR MAINE...HOWEVER...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS POINT IN THE SPRING.
...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...
WITH THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS AND LACK OF SNOWCOVER IN MOST SOUTHERN AREAS...SOIL MOISTURE STATES HAVE BEEN DECLINING STEADILY. THIS IS A FAR CRY FROM EARLIER IN THE WINTER WHEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND REPORTED WELL ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE STATES. AS OF 11 APRIL...THE ONLY AREAS REPORTING SOIL MOISTURE STATES WETTER THAN NORMAL WERE FOUND FROM NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF MAINE. THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE REPORTED SOIL MOISTURE STATES CLOSE TO NORMAL MID-APRIL LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS FOUND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND SOUTH COAST WHERE THE LACK OF SNOW AND VERY DRY WEATHER IS NOW STARTING TO MANIFEST ITSELF AS SOIL MOISTURE STATES ARE BEGINNING TO DROP BELOW NORMAL.
LOOKING AT GROUNDWATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION TELLS AN INTERESTING STORY. THE RECENT DRY WEATHER IS CERTAINLY STARTING TO AFFECT GROUNDWATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SNOWCOVERED REGIONS...GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN DECLINING STEADILY OVER THE PAST MONTH OR SO AT A TIME WHEN THEY WOULD USUALLY BE RISING DUE TO SNOWMELT RECHARGING THE GROUNDWATER SYSTEM. IN FACT...RECORD LOW LEVELS FOR APRIL HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED IN MONITORING WELLS AT AMHERST AND KENDUSKEAG IN MAINE AS WELL AS AT WILMINGTON IN MASSACHUSETTS. THESE WELLS ARE ALL FOUND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE SNOW HAS NOT BEEN AVAILABLE TO RECHARGE THE GROUNDWATER SYSTEM THIS SPRING. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL. IN CONTRAST...WHERE SNOW CONTINUES TO MELT OFF ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN VERMONT...GROUNDWATER LEVELS REMAIN NEAR TO EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO...ACROSS LONG ISLAND IN NEW YORK STATE AND CAPE COD IN MASSACHUSETTS...GROUNDWATER READINGS CONTINUE AT ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS OF THE BEGINNING OF APRIL. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT ACROSS BOTH OF THESE AREAS...UNDERGROUND AQUIFERS ARE SO LARGE THAT THEY TAKE MONTHS TO REACT TO DRY WEATHER. AS A RESULT...THEY ARE STILL REFLECTING THE VERY WET PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF 2005.
MOST LARGE WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE HEADING INTO SPRING. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT MOST OF 2005 WAS WET AND WE WERE AT HIGH LEVELS GOING INTO THIS WINTER BUT ALSO DUE TO THE FACT THAT SOME RESERVOIR OPERATORS REACTED TO THE DRY WEATHER RECENTLY BY STORING SNOWMELT RUNOFF. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...HEADING INTO APRIL...INDIAN LAKE AND GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE REMAINED WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WHILE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...FIRST CONNECTICUT LAKE AND LAKE FRANCIS WERE STORING 277 AND 204 PERCENT OF NORMAL VOLUME RESPECTIVELY. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH SNOWMELT RUNOFF...RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE CLOSER TO OR BEGINNING TO SLIP A BIT BELOW NORMAL NOW. THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF 7 LARGE RESERVOIRS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WAS AT 91.9 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF 12 APRIL 2006 WHICH IS 5 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...LARGE STORAGE RESERVOIRS LIKE THE QUABBIN IN MASSACHUSETTS AND SCITUATE IN NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND STILL WERE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS OF THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.
IN SUMMARY...DESPITE THE VERY DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST FEW MONTHS...DEEP GROUNDWATER AQUIFERS AND LARGE RESERVOIR SYSTEMS HAVE ADEQUATE WATER SUPPLY FOR THIS SPRING AND INTO SUMMER. IF THIS DRY SPELL CONTINUES THROUGH THE SPRING HOWEVER...WE COULD START TO SEE SOME WATER SUPPLY PROBLEMS LATE THIS SPRING OR SUMMER IN AREAS THAT RELY ON SHALLOW WATER WELLS OR SMALL RESERVOIRS TO FEED THEIR WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS.
...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...
RIVER FLOWS ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF APRIL. IN FACT...NUMEROUS SITES IN DOWNEAST MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE ARE AT RECORD LOW FLOW LEVELS FOR TODAY...13 APRIL. THIS IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE DRY WEATHER AND LACK OF SNOWPACK DURING THE LATTER ONE-HALF OF THIS PAST WINTER. SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS REPORTING RECORD LOW FLOWS FOR 13 APRIL INCLUDE:
STATE RIVER LOCATION
MAINE DENNYS DENNYSVILLE MASSACHUSETTS IPSWICH SOUTH MIDDLETON MASSACHUSETTS WESTFIELD WESTFIELD RHODE ISLAND BLACKSTONE WOONSOCKET CONNECTICUT WILLIMANTIC COVENTRY CONNECTICUT WEST BR FARMINGTON RIVERTON NEW YORK MOHAWK LITTLE FALLS
THE ONLY AREAS NOT REPORTING BELOW NORMAL RIVER FLOWS ARE FOUND FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHEAST INTO FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF MAINE. IN THESE AREAS...CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT HAS ALLOWED RIVER FLOWS TO REMAIN AT NEAR TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. FOR EXAMPLE...ALONG THE UPPER REACHES OF THE SAINT JOHN RIVER IN NORTHERN MAINE...FLOWS AT NINE MILE BRIDGE AND DICKEY ARE IN THE HIGHEST 10 PERCENT OF THE HISTORICAL RECORD FOR 13 APRIL.
THERE IS NO LONGER ANY SIGNIFICANT RIVER ICE IN RIVERS ACROSS THE NERFC SERVICE AREA. THE LAST OF THE RIVER ICE HAS BY IN LARGE BROKEN UP AND MOVED OUT OF RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE DURING THE LAST WEEK TO 10 DAYS. WE DID HAVE ONE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER NEAR NINE MILE BRIDGE DURING BREAKUP ON 2 APRIL 2006...OTHERWISE...IT WAS A RELATIVELY QUIET BREAKUP PERIOD FOR NORTHERN MAINE.
...IN CONCLUSION...
BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MAINE. THIS INCLUDES BASINS LIKE THE UPPER AND MIDDLE SAINT JOHN...BIG BLACK...SAINT FRANCIS AND ALLAGASH. IN THESE AREAS...ANTECEDENT MOISTURE STATES ARE WETTER THAN NORMAL...RIVER FLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD LEAD TO A SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN GOING FORWARD DOES NOT SEEM TO FAVOR ANY MAJOR RUNOFF EVENTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THEREFORE...WE THINK THE REMAINING SNOW SHOULD RUNOFF IN A FAIRLY ORDERLY MANNER...THEREBY JUSTIFYING A NEAR NORMAL THREAT FOR FLOODING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY MAY.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND AND ALL OF NEW YORK STATE...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE...ANY REMAINING SNOW WATER PRESENT IN THE MOUNTAINS IS BELOW NORMAL...RIVER FLOWS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AS WELL. IN ADDITION...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF ANY MAJOR RUNOFF EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE FACT THAT WITHOUT A MAJOR RUNOFF EVENT (WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT SEEN IN ANY GUIDANCE)...FLOODING IS CERTAINLY LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN IN A NORMAL SPRING MELT SEASON...HENCE...A BELOW NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL SEEMS JUSTIFIED IN THESE AREAS.
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE...RIVER FLOWS ARE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL...SOIL MOISTURE STATES ARE NEAR TO IN SOME INSTANCES BELOW NORMAL...AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL. WITH NO SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND...IT WOULD LIKELY TAKE MORE THAN ONE MAJOR RUNOFF EVENT IN QUICK SUCCESSION TO BRING RIVER LEVELS UP TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND RIGHT NOW THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY. IN ADDITION...GRASS AND TREES ARE BEGINNING TO BUD OUT ACROSS A LOT OF THE REGION SO ADDITIONAL WATER WILL BE USED FOR THEIR GROWTH NEEDS...FURTHER INHIBITING RUNOFF DURING ANY RAINFALL EVENTS. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW YORK STATE IS DEEMED AS MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED FOR THIS SEASON ACROSS THE NERFC SERVICE AREA. THE LAST OF THE RIVER ICE HAS BY IN LARGE BROKEN UP AND MOVED OUT OF NORTHERN MAINE RIVERS DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS. ONE SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM OCCURRED DURING BREAKUP ALONG THE SAINT JOHN RIVER NEAR NINE MILE BRIDGE ON 2 APRIL 2006...OTHERWISE...IT WAS AN ORDERLY ICE-OUT OF FAR NORTHERN MAINE RIVERS. WHILE ICE STILL REMAINS ON A LOT OF THE RIVERBANKS FROM THE RECENT BREAKUP...THE RIVERS ARE BASICALLY FLOWING OPEN NOW SO THE THREAT FOR ANY ICE JAMMING IS DEEMED TO HAVE PASSED FOR THIS SEASON.
A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT...
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/sfpog.html
UNLESS A WIDESPREAD...SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM OCCURS DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL BE THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL ISSUANCE FROM THE NERFC FOR THE 2005/2006 SEASON.
HORWOOD