FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER
200 PM EST THU MAR 30, 2006

                      FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DURING APRIL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR ALL WATERSHEDS
IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DRAINAGE EXCEPT THE HEADWATERS OF
THE ALLEGHENY WATERSHED WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.

NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS MODERATE TO HIGH FLOWS WITH SOME
FLOODING EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS LOW TO
MODERATE FLOWS WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

REFER TO http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ohrfc/ FOR THE PROBABILITY OF 
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL AT SPECIFIC FORECAST 
POINTS WITHIN THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DRAINAGE.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER/SPRING FLOODING.
THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS... REALIZING THAT ACTUAL CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE DURING THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE WATER CONTENT
OF THE SNOWPACK, THE WETNESS OF THE SOILS, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL,
HIGH STREAMFLOWS AND RESERVOIR LEVELS, AND ICE COVERAGE ON THE
RIVERS.

THERE IS NO SNOWPACK IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 90 DAYS HAS AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL OVER
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA EASTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO AS WELL AS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD HAS FALLEN
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA, CENTRAL AS WELL AS NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
OHIO LOCALS DOWNSTREAM OF HUNTINGTON WEST VIRGINIA. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS THE
WATERSHEDS ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.

SOILS RANGE FROM WET TO MOIST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF APRIL WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
WITH STORM SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY EVERY THREE OR
FOUR DAYS PRODUCING 1/2 TO 1 INCH RAINS.

....PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOW AND FLOOD FLOW FOR SOME MAINSTEM POINTS
    ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS OF MARCH 30, 2006 ARE AS FOLLOWS:

DASHIELDS:   27% /  7%
HUNTINGTON   32% / 12%
CINCINNATI   32% / 14%
LOUISVILLE   35% / 15%
EVANSVILLE   32% / 16%

.... PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOW FOR TRIBUTARIES THAT FLOW INTO THE OHIO
     RIVER AS OF MARCH 30, 2006 ARE BELOW.

ALLEGHENY   -   25% TO  35%         KENTUCKY     - 20%  TO  30%
MONONGAHELA -   20% TO 100%         LICKING      - 10%  TO  25%
BEAVER      -   15% TO  20%         GREEN        - 15%  TO  20%
MUSKINGUM   -   30% TO  40%         WHITE        - 40%  TO  75%
KANAWHA     -   40% TO  100%        WABASH       - 30%  TO  70%
SANDY       -   30% TO  40%         LTL. WABASH  - 25%  TO  130%
SCIOTO      -   15% TO  40%         MAUMEE       - 25%  TO  35%
MIAMI       -   50% TO  60%         CUMBERLAND   - 20%  TO  60%

RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LEADING TO FLOODING. HEAVY OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR EVEN
WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.

MJW/REC/JJN