SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER, ATLANTA, GA
1230 PM EST THU MAR 30 2006

EASTERN REGION ONLY -- NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA

...THE SERFC IS CALLING FOR BELOW NORMAL FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE
REST OF SPRING 2006...

EXISTING CONDITIONS

SOIL MOISTURE -- WIDESPREAD SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS ARE NOTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  DEFICITS ARE MOST NOTABLE FOR UPPER SOIL
MOISTURE DUE TO WELL-BELOW-NORMAL WINTER RAINFALL.  LOWER SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALSO AS THE AREA
GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM MORE NORMAL 2005 RAINFALL.  SOIL MOISTURE HAS
BEEN TRENDING BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR WITH
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED.

DROUGHT MONITOR -- ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED OVER ALL
OF VIRGINIA, NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.  CONDITIONS HAVE
BECOME WORSE OVER ALL OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA SINCE THE START OF
FEBRUARY. THESE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING AND
SLOWLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY.

AVERAGE DAILY STREAM FLOW IS RUNNING WELL-BELOW-NORMAL OVER ALL OF
THIS OUTLOOK AREA. MOST SPOTS ARE RUNNING LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...WITH SOME SPOTS INDICATING 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL DAILY 
STREAMFLOW OR LESS. SINCE THIS IS THE MOST CRITICAL TIME FOR RECHARGE
OF SOILS AND RESERVOIRS...UNLESS THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
DURING APRIL, PROBLEMS FROM RAINFALL DEFICIT WILL BEGIN OCCURRING IN
LATE SPRING.

PAST RAINFALL -- SINCE THE START OF 2006...A MAJORITY OF THIS REGION
HAS ONLY RECEIVED 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS -- POOL LEVELS OF MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS
WITHIN THIS AREA ARE RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO THE "RULE CURVE," OR
TARGET LEVELS, FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  HOWEVER, INFLOWS INTO
RESERVOIRS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL AND RESERVOIR OPERATORS
ARE ALREADY REGULATING FLOWS APPROPRIATELY.  THEREFORE, MOST
STREAMFLOW MEASUREMENTS THAT ARE BELOW RESERVOIRS ARE GOING TO
REMAIN EXTREMELY LOW.  THE ESP TRACES THAT HAVE BEEN ANALYZED
LOOKING AT INFLOWS INTO RESERVOIRS SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
INFLOWS FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK -- AN EARLY SEASON BERMUDA HIGH IS PREVENTING
STORMS FROM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  WEATHER SYSTEMS KEEP MOVING
OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HINT AT THAT THE BERMUDA HIGH BREAKING DOWN AND
MORE OF THESE SYSTEMS HAVING THE OPPORTUNITY TO BRING RAINFALL TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS MOMENT, IT WILL PROBABLY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS.

LONGER TERM, WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZE THE PREDOMINANT
CLIMATE SIGNAL.  THE APRIL RAINFALL OUTLOOK CALLS FOR OVERALL NORMAL
TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WHILE THE LONGER-TERM TREND THROUGH JUNE
CONTINUES TO CALL FOR BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL.  THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A WEAK LA NINA SIGNAL. HOWEVER, A WEAK LA NINA SIGNALS A MORE
ACTIVE TROPICAL SEASON.  CPC OUTLOOKS REFLECT THIS IN THEIR SEASONAL
OUTLOOKS DURING TROPICAL SEASON.

OUTLOOK...OVERALL...THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA, NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MANY SIGNS POINTING
TOWARDS A CONTINUATION OF THIS TREND THROUGH THE REST OF SPRING. IT
WILL TAKE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PRODUCE NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL
FLOODING AND AT THIS MOMENT AND THAT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

SERFC WATER WATCH TEAM