HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
449 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WHICH INCLUDES THE PINE RIVER BASIN...AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE MANISTEE...THUNDER
BAY...AU SABLE...CHEBOYGAN...BOARDMAN...AND RIFLE RIVER BASINS.
TRIBUTARIES IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE SAGINAW RIVER BASIN ARE ALSO
INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY THAT THE RIVER LEVEL AT THE GIVEN GAGE LOCATION COULD
EXCEED THE LISTED STAGE DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE
AU SABLE RIVER AT RED OAK HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 7 FEET. UNDER THE
COLUMN LISTED 40% IS A STAGE OF 4.6 FEET. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 4.6 FEET IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.
A COMPARISON OF CURRENT OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES TO HISTORICAL
PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND AT OUR WEB SITE:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=APX
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING LISTED STAGE AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID MARCH 14, 2006 THROUGH JUNE 12, 2006
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
PINE RIVER
RUDYARD--RUDM4 17 7.3/ 8.2/ 9.0/ 9.4/ 9.9/10.3/10.8/11.4/12.5
BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--MYFM4 7 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.5/ 4.6/ 4.9
AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK--RDOM4 7 4.1/ 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.5/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 5.3
MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN--SHRM4 15 13.1/13.2/13.5/13.6/13.7/13.8/14.1/14.5/14.9
LOCATION FS(FT) CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE NEXT 90 DAYS
-------- ------ --------------------------------------------
PINE RIVER
RUDYARD 17 LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD 7 LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK 7 LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN 15 AROUND 10 PERCENT
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGIC DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT RIVER
CONDITIONS...SOIL MOISTURE..AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE
PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN HAVE RANGED FROM
A QUICK START TO WINTER IN NOVEMBER AND EARLY DECEMBER...TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN IN JANUARY AND BACK TO RECORD SETTING SNOWFALL
FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURES THIS PAST WINTER
RANGED FROM NORMAL IN DECEMBER...TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING JANUARY. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER AND WEST-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY RANGED FROM 16 TO 54
INCHES...AND FOR THE SEASON TO DAY FROM 45 TO 110 INCHES.
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN ARE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL (ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=APX). THE
OUTLOOK INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT
THIS SPRING. HOWEVER...ICE JAMS AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE RISK FOR
FLOODING. MINOR FLOODING IS DEFINED AS MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE...BUT POSSIBLY SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.
SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN RANGED FROM 15 TO 25
INCHES. ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SNOW DEPTHS GENERALLY RANGED
FROM 3 TO 10 INCHES...WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES RANGE
FROM 2.0 INCHES OR LESS NEAR THE LAKE SHORES...WITH 4.0 TO 5.0 OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN LOWER AND UP TO 7.0 INCHES IN
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. FROST DEPTHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 12
INCHES IN NORTHERN LOWER TO 2 FEET IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
THE LATEST 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER FOR THE PERIOD FROM MARCH 15-19...CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. OUTLOOKS FOR THE MONTH
OF MARCH CALL FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE
90 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
VISIT OUR HOMEPAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX FOR MORE WEATHER AND
CLIMATOLOGY INFORMATION AND WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=APX
FOR RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.
THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK.
THE NEXT LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE
END OF APRIL.
$$
MJP/JPB