HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL 945 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2005
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...
STREAMFLOW DATA PROVIDED BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS AND ALABAMA POWER COMPANY.
...NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS SPRING...
INTRODUCTION... AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY JANUARY THE WEATHER PATTERN IN CENTRAL ALABAMA IN FEBRUARY HAS RETURNED TO ONE IN WHICH WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE REGULARLY AFFECTING THE AREA DUE TO AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA ON A REGULAR BASIS...AND THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY SUNDAY... WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTH ALABAMA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN DURING NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. INFLOWS INTO SOME RESERVOIRS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT LAKE LEVELS ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL. AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND COULD PRODUCE SOME RISES.
OUTLOOK... AVERAGE CHANCES FOR FLOODING SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS SPRING. ALTHOUGH INFLOWS INTO MANY RESERVOIRS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LAKE LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEMS HAVE SO FAR KEPT THE AREA FROM HAVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SLOWLY OR PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN A SMALLER AREA, MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND THUS AN AVERAGE SPRING FLOOD SEASON IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED. PROGRESSIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY HAVE DURING THE PAST MONTH...BRINGING PERIODIC RAINFALL..
THE 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS CALL FOR NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
CONSIDERING ALL OF THE PRECEDING INFORMATION THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A "NORMAL" POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED MARCH 11TH FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA.
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