HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 335 PM EST FRI MAR 31 2006
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
THIS IS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ISSUED INTO EARLY SPRING BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA. THESE OUTLOOKS PERTAIN TO THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND...AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT. THESE STATEMENTS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED BIWEEKLY ON FRIDAYS INTO EARLY SPRING.
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS IS OVER FOR THE SEASON.
...PRECIPITATION...
MARCH RAINFALL HAS BEEN SCANT. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH SO FAR ARE LISTED BELOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE HARTFORD AREA NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IF NO RAIN FALLS BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE AMOUNTS BELOW WILL BE TOTALS AND DEPARTURES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.
BOSTON...... 0.56 INCH. DEPARTURE -3.29 INCHES. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD FOR BOSTON. THE DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD IS A TRACE...SET BACK IN 1915. RECORDS GO BACK TO 1872.
WORCESTER... 0.50 INCH. DEPARTURE -3.73 INCHES. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD FOR WORCESTER. THE DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD IS 0.04 INCH...SET IN 1915. RECORDS GO BACK TO 1892.
HARTFORD.... 0.78 INCH. DEPARTURE -3.10 INCHES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IF 0.17 INCH OR LESS FALLS BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE THIRD DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD FOR HARTFORD. THE DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD IS 0.27 INCH...SET IN 1981. RECORDS GO BACK TO 1905.
PROVIDENCE.. 0.57 INCH. DEPARTURE -3.86 INCHES. THIS WILL BE THE THIRD DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD FOR PROVIDENCE. THE DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD IS 0.07 INCH...SET IN 1915. RECORDS GO BACK TO 1905.
THE UNUSUALLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING MARCH HAVE BROUGHT YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TO BELOW NORMAL TOTALS AS WELL. THE FOLLOWING IS A LISTING OF YEAR TO DATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS /THROUGH MARCH 30TH 2006/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL AT THE LONGER TERM CLIMATE SITES.
BOSTON....... 7.80 INCHES. DEPARTURE -3.14 INCHES. WORCESTER.... 9.29 INCHES. DEPARTURE -1.97 INCHES. HARTFORD..... 9.27 INCHES. DEPARTURE -1.28 INCHES. PROVIDENCE... 8.43 INCHES. DEPARTURE -3.67 INCHES.
... SOIL CONDITIONS AND RIVER LEVELS...
AS OF MARCH 31ST...GAGED RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS RHODE ISLAND...MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE WERE RUNNING BELOW OR MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TYPICALLY IN MARCH AND APRIL...AREA SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL COMBINE TO FORM WHAT CAN BE THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED RIVER LEVELS OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE TWO REASONS FOR THE BELOW NORMAL RIVER LEVELS. FIRST IS THE THE LOW MARCH RAINFALL. THE SECOND IS A LACK OF SNOWPACK IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK RIVER BASINS AS A WHOLE.
SOIL MOISTURE IS NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AREAS OF SHALLOW STORAGE THAT ARE TYPICALLY FULL OF WATER IN EARLY SPRING HAVE BEGUN TO DRY OUT IN SOME AREAS.
GROUND WATER LEVELS VARIED FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. AN OVERALL FALLING TREND IN GROUND WATER LEVELS HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH.
THE ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION FROM LATE IN 2005 PROVIDED MUCH RUNOFF TO FILL AREA RESERVOIRS. AS OF LATE MARCH QUABBIN RESERVOIR WAS AT 100.2 PERCENT OF CAPACITY...WACHUSETT RESERVOIR AT 95.5 PERCENT...AND SCITUATE RESERVOIR AT 103.3 PERCENT CAPACITY.
...SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...
EAST OF THE BERKSHIRES...THERE IS NO LONGER A SNOW PACK IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO...FLOOD THREAT DUE TO ICE JAMS IS OVER FOR THE SEASON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
...FORECAST... TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY. ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE SHOWERS TO AN END.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY....WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...CALLS FOR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION... DURING APRIL 9TH TO THE 14TH.
...SUMMARY... FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS IS OVER FOR THE SEASON.
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS FOR SEVERAL REASONS. MARCH RAINFALL HAS BEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS HAS PROMPTED SOIL TO RETURN TO NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE CONTENT. AREAS OF SHALLOW STORAGE THAT ARE TYPICALLY FULL IN EARLY SPRING HAVE BEGUN TO DRY OUT...AND WOULD HELP TO CONTAIN INITIAL RUNOFF IN THE EVENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. NO SNOW PACK REMAINS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...NOR IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK RIVER BASINS AS A WHOLE.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE SEASON.
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