HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
925 AM CST FRI MARCH 10 2006

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS OUTLOOK USES THE TERM DODGE CITY SERVICE AREA TO REFER TO THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

  - THE ARKANSAS RIVER FROM THE KANSAS-COLORADO STATE LINE TO BELOW  
    LARNED, KANSAS
  - THE SALINE AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS IN TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES
  - THE WALNUT CREEK IN NESS AND RUSH COUNTIES
  - THE PAWNEE CREEK AND BUCKNER CREEK
  - THE RATTLESNAKE CREEK AND CROOKED CREEK
  - THE CIMARRON RIVER AND MEDICINE LODGE RIVER

...BELOW AVERAGE CHANCE FOR FLOODING THROUGH MARCH BASED ON CURRENT 
AND FORECAST CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 10,2006 THROUGH MARCH 24, 2006.

OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED 
NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING.  THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE, 
SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS 
ISSUED.  OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION.  THUS, IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL, THEN 
ACTUAL CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF 
FLOOD EVENTS IN THE DODGE CITY SERVICE AREA RESULT FROM SHORT 
PERIODS OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION...OR LONGER PERIODS OF 
EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION.

VERY DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH AN DECREASED 
PROBABILITY OF WETTER WEATHER DURING THE MARCH TO MAY PERIOD WILL 
DECREASE THE PROBABILITY OF RIVER FLOODING IN ALL OF THE DODGE CITY 
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

THE SHORT REPRIEVE FROM DROUGHTY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED LAST 
SPRING/SUMMER HAS ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WAY TO DRIER CONDITIONS.  ONLY A 
TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WAS RECORDED AT THE DODGE CITY WEATHER 
FORECAST OFFICE FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.  FOR THE 3-MONTH PERIOD 
DECEMBER TO FEBRUARY...ONLY 0.25 INCHES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 
HAS FALLEN.  TOPSOIL MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AT THIS TIME. 
BLUSTERY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MARCH CLIMATOLOGY MIGHT RAISE THE 
POSSIBILITY OF DUST-INDUCED INCIDENCES OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES ON 
SUSCEPTIBLE ACREAGE.  THIS ASSESSMENT DOES APPEAR TO CONTRAST WITH 
THE CURRENT CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY 
INDEX...WHICH CHARACTERIZES THE DODGE CITY SERVICE AREA AS NEAR 
NORMAL.  THE CPC CROP MOISTURE INDEX (5 FOOT PROFILE) ALSO INDICATES 
SLIGHTLY DRY TO FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONDITIONS. 

CPC 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL 
CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE 
30 DAY OUTLOOK SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES...AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION.  

THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN 
THE HEADWATERS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN IN CENTRAL COLORADO IS 
RUNNING AT 83 PERCENT OF NORMAL...TOTAL PRECIPITATION AT 81 PERCENT 
OF NORMAL.  THE WATER SURFACE ELEVATION AT JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR IN 
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO STANDS AT 3806.90 FEET...AN DECREASE OF EIGHT 
FEET FROM MARCH 2004...AND APPROXIMATELY 45 FEET BELOW THE TOP OF 
THE CONSERVATION POOL...PROVIDING AMPLE RESERVOIR STORAGE FOR SPRING 
SNOWMELT IN THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN.  

ACCORDINGLY, THE CHANCE OF FLOODING ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER IN 
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A RESULT OF SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE HEADWATERS OF 
THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN IN CENTRAL COLORADO IS DEEMED BELOW 
AVERAGE. ELSEWHERE, THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING IN THE REMAINDER OF 
THE DODGE CITY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS ALSO DEEMED BELOW NORMAL.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK 
ISSUED FOR THIS YEAR.

VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DDC/ FOR MORE WEATHER AND 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION. 
 

$$

SLOAN