HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
940 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
-MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FROM THE HEADWATERS TO
FT. RIPLEY
-WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
-CHIPPEWA RIVER BASIN IN WISCONSIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID MARCH 13, 2006 - JUNE 11, 2006
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE ST. LOUIS RIVER AT SCANLON HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 10.5 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 7.9 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
ST. LOUIS RIVER AT SCANLON
10.5 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.5 8.7 9.3 10.3
PRAIRIE RIVER NEAR TACONITE
10 6.1 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.7 9.4
SNAKE RIVER AT PINE CITY
9 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.3 7.9
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AITKIN
12 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.3 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.6 18.1
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT FORT RIPLEY
10 9.1 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.5 11.0 11.4 12.1 12.9
THE ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW HYDROLOGIC MODEL WAS RUN USING THE RECENT
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW COVER AND THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK
PROVIDED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. DETAILS OF THE
CLIMATE OUTLOOK USED ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOKS_INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER
CASE)
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGICAL
PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).
CURRENT CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY MARCH PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WERE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FEBRUARY AND ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
EARLY MARCH.
DROUGHT STATUS
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER CONSIDERS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO BE FREE OF ANY DROUGHT DESIGNATION.
RIVER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE NORMAL FLOW RATES
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE CROW WING RIVER
NEAR PILLAGER WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL.
CLIMATE OUTLOOK
THE 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS SHOWS NO STRONG DEVIATION FROM NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OR PRECIPITATION.
FLOOD OUTLOOKS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE FALL RAINS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE BEFORE THE COLD WEATHER
SEASON. SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM A FEW FEET AT SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW, TO 2.0 INCHES IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AROUND BAYFIELD. MODELED WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW RANGES
FROM OVER 7.0 INCHES AROUND THE PIGEON RIVER ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AROUND BAYFIELD COUNTY, WISCONSIN.
IN THE ST. LOUIS RIVER WATERSHED...WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW IS IN
THE 2.0 TO 3.0 INCH RANGE IN THE UPPER PART OF THE WATERSHED AND A
LITTLE ABOVE 3.0 INCHES IN THE LOWER PART OF THE BASIN. THE ST.
LOUIS RIVER AT SCANLON IS CURRENTLY FLOWING AT SLIGHTLY LESS THAN AT
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE RESERVOIRS IN THIS WATERSHED ARE BEING
DRAWN DOWN AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO CAPTURE THE SPRING RUNOFF IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE AREAS.
THE CHANCE OF SPRING FLOODING IS BELOW HISTORICAL AVERAGES.
CHIPPEWA RIVER BASIN
OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
RIVER FLOWS WERE NORMAL DURING MOST OF THE FALL OVER THE CHIPPEWA
BASIN. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE BASIN HAS SNOW COVER AND THE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM A 0.25 OF AN INCH SOUTH TO AROUND 3.0
INCHES IN THE NORTH. FROST DEPTHS ARE SHALLOW OVER MOST OF THE
BASIN. CURRENT MODEL STATES INDICATE THE UPPER SOIL LEVELS ARE
SATURATED OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN.
THE CHANCE OF SPRING FLOODING IS BELOW HISTORICAL AVERAGES.
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FROM THE HEADWATERS TO FT. RIPLEY
DURING THE SUMMER OF 2005...PRECIPITATION WAS NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE BASIN. HOWEVER...FALL PRECIPITATION WAS 125 PERCENT IN THE
NORTH...BUT AS HIGH AS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE CROW WING RIVER. FROST DEPTHS
THROUGHOUT THE BASIN ARE ABOUT A FOOT OR LESS...WHICH IS ABOUT A
FOOT SHALLOWER THAN LAST YEAR. ALSO...THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF ICE
LAYERS IN THE SNOWPACK AT THIS TIME.
MODEL SIMULATED WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4.0 INCHES.
THESE SIMULATED AMOUNTS ARE BELOW AVERAGE COMPARED TO SIMULATED
AVERAGES FOR THE LAST 50 YEARS. AS A RESULT OF THE WET FALL...SOME
MIDWINTER SNOWMELT...AND A SHALLOW FROST...FLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT MOISTURE DEFICIT IN THE
HEADWATERS AREA...MODELED SOIL MOISTURE STATES ARE QUITE WET. SINCE
MID FEBRUARY...UP TO A HALF INCH OF NEW WATER EQUIVALENT FELL OVER
THE HEADWATERS AREA OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATERSHED.
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL ICE JAMS THIS WINTER ON THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AT FT. RIPLEY. THESE HAVE BEEN MAINLY FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHICH
OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WINTER...BUT HAVE DISSIPATED DURING THE
RELATIVELY WARM MONTH OF JANUARY. RECENT COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
AFFECTING RIVER LEVELS SLIGHTLY...BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DEGRADED ICE
COVER THIS LATE IN THE SEASON...ICE JAMS THIS SPRING ARE NOT A BIG
CONCERN IN THE BASIN. THE HEADWATERS RESERVOIRS ARE STILL HOLDING
STEADY AT ABOUT A HALF FOOT ABOVE THEIR NORMAL DRAWDOWN LEVEL FOR
THE WINTER BECAUSE OF A BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK.
THE CHANCE OF SPRING FLOODING IS ABOVE HISTORICAL AVERAGES.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH/AHPS (LOWER CASE) FOR
MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION.
$$
GSF