HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 223 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THIS SPRING SNOWMELT FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE DES MOINES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...WHICH INCLUDE THE DES MOINES...RACCOON... CEDAR...IOWA AND SKUNK RIVER BASINS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA...AND THE EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER AND GRAND RIVER TRIBUTARIES IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN IOWA.
OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED NOTICE OF POSSIBLE SNOWMELT FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE... SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE...AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED. OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. THUS...IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL...THEN THE MAGNITUDE OF FLOODING EXPERIENCED WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK.
OUTLOOK: DUE TO A LACK OF SNOW IN THE ABOVE WATERSHEDS...NO FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL AT ANY TIME CAN LEAD TO FLOODING...EVEN WHEN THE SNOWMELT FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 9O DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE S FK CHARITON RIVER AT PROMISE CITY HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 18 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE REACHING 20.5 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID 03/14 2006 - 06/12 2006
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
E FK DES MOINES RIVER ALGONA 14 10.3 11.0 11.3 11.8 13.1 13.7 14.5 15.2 16.9 DAKOTA CITY 20 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.1 12.0 12.6 13.3 13.6 15.8
BOONE RIVER WEBSTER CIT 10 4.1 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.1 7.2 7.8 8.9 10.2
BEAVER CREEK GRIMES 12 4.6 6.5 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.5 10.1 10.4 11.3
N RACCOON RIVER JEFFERSON 10 6.5 7.8 8.7 10.1 11.0 11.4 12.1 13.4 15.5 PERRY 13 5.6 7.8 9.3 11.0 12.2 12.9 13.9 14.9 16.7
S RACCOON RIVER REDFIELD 14 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.6 7.6
RACCOON RIVER VAN METER 13 4.6 6.3 7.6 8.4 9.5 10.4 11.2 12.9 14.8 DSM - FLEUR 12 1.9 4.1 7.0 8.4 9.2 10.1 10.6 12.0 13.5
NORTH RIVER NORWALK 18 5.2 5.6 6.4 6.8 7.4 8.7 12.1 15.5 18.5
MIDDLE RIVER INDIANOLA 19 7.7 9.2 10.8 11.7 12.0 12.9 13.5 14.4 15.4
SOUTH RIVER ACKWORTH 26 7.0 8.5 9.6 10.3 11.0 11.4 12.3 13.6 15.6
CEDAR CREEK BUSSEY 18 5.4 8.0 9.8 10.6 11.4 12.7 14.3 15.3 19.5
DES MOINES RIVER ESTHERVILLE 7 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.7 8.0 9.0 9.9 10.9 11.7 EMMETSBURG 10 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.4 7.5 8.4 9.9 10.6 11.8 HUMBOLDT 8 5.6 6.0 6.7 7.2 7.7 8.0 9.0 9.7 10.8 FORT DODGE 10 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.5 7.1 7.9 8.4 8.9 10.7 STRATFORD 14 8.9 9.7 10.8 11.8 13.2 13.9 15.1 16.1 19.1 DSM-2ND AVE 23 15.0 15.7 16.7 17.4 18.3 18.5 18.6 19.0 19.2 DSM-SE 6TH 24 13.7 15.5 17.7 19.0 20.3 21.3 22.0 23.3 24.3 TRACY 14 4.6 6.8 8.2 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.9 11.4 OTTUMWA 10 3.2 5.6 6.3 7.1 7.4 7.9 8.5 8.9 10.0
CEDAR RIVER JANESVILLE 11 3.7 4.2 4.8 5.4 5.8 6.5 7.0 8.2 10.1 CEDAR FALLS 88 82.0 83.3 84.4 85.1 86.0 87.1 88.1 90.0 91.8 WATERLOO 12 7.1 7.8 8.4 8.8 9.4 9.9 10.7 12.8 14.6
W FK CEDAR RIVER FINCHFORD 12 8.6 9.3 10.2 10.7 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.8 13.7
WINNEBAGO RIVER MASON CITY 7 4.1 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.4 8.5
SHELL ROCK RIVER SHELL ROCK 12 9.2 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.5 12.5 13.3
BEAVER CREEK NEW HARTFRD 10 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.6 7.2 8.2 10.3
IOWA RIVER MARSHALLTWN 15 10.9 11.6 12.5 13.3 14.2 15.2 16.1 16.7 17.7
SOUTH SKUNK RIVER AMES 3N 9 4.9 5.8 6.4 6.6 7.2 7.5 8.5 9.1 9.5 AMES 5SE 20 12.7 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.9 19.5 20.3 21.1 COLFAX 17 8.8 10.3 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.9 14.9 15.7 17.1 OSKALOOSA 17 9.4 11.6 13.7 14.9 16.8 17.8 19.0 19.4 20.5
SQUAW CREEK AMES 9 2.8 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.3 5.1 5.8 6.7 7.7
E FK NISHNABOTNA RIVER ATLANTIC 17 4.1 5.5 6.4 6.7 7.1 8.6 9.7 13.0 16.9
E 102 RIVER BEDFORD 21 13.2 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.2 18.7 19.8
THOMPSON RIVER DAVIS CITY 9 0.7 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.2 5.0 6.2 7.1 8.6
CHARITON RIVER CHARITON 15 10.4 12.0 13.0 13.6 14.2 14.6 15.3 16.4 16.6 MOULTON 35 19.1 21.5 22.7 23.7 25.8 28.6 31.6 32.9 34.3
S FK CHARITON RIVER PROMISE CITY18 5.4 9.9 12.1 15.0 17.1 17.6 18.8 19.7 20.5
PRESENT CONDITIONS: THERE IS NO SNOWCOVER CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DES MOINES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOIL MOISTURE IS RANGING FROM NEAR NORMAL IN EXTREME NORTHERN IOWA...TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...GENERALLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 20 IN THE NORTH...TO HIGHWAY 92 IN CENTRAL IOWA. SOUTHERN IOWA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 TO THE MISSOURI BORDER IS ENDURING SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. RECENT STORMS PASSING ACROSS IOWA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE HELPED...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO IMPROVE THE OVERALL SOIL CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
FUTURE CONDITIONS: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING STORMS TO CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...WITH ANY SNOW LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ADDITIONAL LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS FOR RIVER CONDITIONS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT ON THE DES MOINES NWS INTERNET. VISIT OUR HOMEPAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DMX/ (LOWER CASE) FOR MORE WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION.
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BAKER