HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1205 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND INCLUDES RIVERS IN THE SAGINAW RIVER BASIN AND THE CLINTON...ROUGE...HURON AND RAISIN RIVER BASINS...
THE DETROIT/PONTIAC OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL THE MODEL LOCATIONS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED BASINS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.
THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID MARCH 13 2006 TO JUNE 11 2006.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE PINE RIVER AT MIDLAND HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 5.9 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- PINE RIVER MIDLAND 12.0 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.3 TITTABAWASSEE RIVER MIDLAND 24.0 21.2 22.2 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.5 26.0 SHIAWASSEE RIVER OWOSSO 7.0 4.4 4.7 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.0 6.4 7.0 7.7 FERGUS 10.0 5.4 5.8 6.3 7.1 7.9 8.4 9.1 10.0 11.4 KEARSLEY CREEK DAVISON 10.0 5.9 6.4 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.2 8.6 9.0 9.6 FLINT RIVER FLINT 13.0 6.9 7.1 7.4 8.3 8.5 9.1 9.6 10.5 11.0 CASS RIVER CASS CITY 14.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.9 VASSAR 14.0 8.0 8.3 8.7 9.3 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.9 12.2 FRANKENMUTH 17.0 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.5 15.8 16.2 17.6 18.0 20.0 SAGINAW RIVER SAGINAW 19.0 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.3 N.BR.CLINTON RIVER MT CLEMENS 15.0 9.3 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.7 CLINTON RIVER CLINTON TOWNSHIP 16.0 11.4 12.9 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.5 MT. CLEMENS 16.0 7.1 7.6 8.1 8.5 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.1 11.9 ROUGE RIVER DETROIT 15.0 10.3 11.0 11.6 12.2 12.6 13.3 13.7 14.4 15.6 MIDDLE ROUGE RIVER GARDEN CITY 10.0 5.3 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.9 8.1 8.5 9.1 LOWER ROUGHED RIVER INKSTER 10.0 5.8 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.7 7.8 8.3 9.2 10.6 MILL CREEK DEXTER 12.0 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.8 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.6 HURON RIVER HAMBURG 6.5 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.7 7.2 ANN ARBOR 15.0 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.8 14.9 RIVER RAISIN TECUMSEH 13.0 7.6 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.8 10.5 ADRIAN 18.0 8.2 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.6 11.8 12.2 13.7 BLISSFIELD 683.0 677.9679.2680.0680.2680.5680.8681.1681.8683.3 DUNDEE 650.0 642.1643.7644.3644.8645.2645.6646.0647.2649.7 MONROE CITY 9.0 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.5 9.0
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE... AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT:WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTW/(INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH...NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH...THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
AS OF MARCH 10...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM ABOUT 4 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WITH ZERO SNOW DEPTH ELSE WHERE. THERE IS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER IN THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.
...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS...
CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS RANK ABOVE NORMAL AS LATE FALL AND WINTER HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL IN PRECIPITATION. FROST DEPTHS RANGE FROM ZERO TO VERY SHALLOW.
...RIVER CONDITIONS...
MOST RIVERS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS FROM RECENT RAINS.
...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE 6 TO 10 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH COVERS THE LATTER PART OF MARCH...INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
THE OUTLOOK INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE TITTABAWASSEE RIVER... CASS RIVER AND THE HURON RIVER IN HAMBURG.
MINOR FLOODING IS DEFINED AS MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE...BUT POSSIBLY SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE. MODERATE FLOODING IS DEFINED AS A THREAT TO PROPERTY.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT:WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/(INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL LOWER CASE).
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NCRFC/DRC