YDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1226 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2006 THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
CALLING FOR NORMAL FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE - SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO OCCASIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS PRODUCING
RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA.

AVERAGE DAILY STREAM FLOW IS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL.  OCCASIONAL
VARIANCES HAVE OCCURRED DUE TO PERIODIC RAINFALL...BUT OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE YEAR.

PAST RAINFALL - BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS PREVAILED SINCE THE 
BEGINNING OF THE YEAR ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THE AREA WAS GENERALLY 60 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN A NEAR NORMAL AREA
OF RAINFALL IN NORTH GEORGIA FROM ROME TO COMMERCE TO WASHINGTON
TO CARROLLTON. THIS AREA RECEIVED 9 TO 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL AND
INCLUDES THE ATLANTA METRO COUNTIES. ONLY ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING 
OCCURRED IN THIS AREA AFTER RAIN EVENTS OF TWO INCHES OR MORE.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A
SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THIS RAINFALL. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS - POOL LEVELS OF MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO THE "RULE
CURVE", OR TARGET LEVELS, FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, INFLOWS
INTO RESERVOIRS ARE BEGINNING TO RUN BELOW NORMAL IN SOME CASES.
IT IS DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT MANY OPERATORS PLAN TO FILL
THEIR RESERVOIRS TO SUMMER LEVELS. NORMAL RAINFALL SHOULD TAKE
CARE OF THAT SITUATION.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK - THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WEATHER MOVES INTO A
MORE TRANSITIONAL ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN SPRING AND SUMMER AND THE
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE. RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE IN THE
NORMAL RANGE.

LONGER TERM, WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZE THE PREDOMINANT
CLIMATE SIGNAL.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THE AREA WILL SEE BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  THE ISSUE TO WATCH CLOSELY IS SPRING RAINFALL 
AS THERE IS A REASONABLY STRONG CORRELATION BETWEEN SPRING RAINFALL 
TOTALS AND LATER SEASON RAINFALL. IF THERE IS A DRY SPRING...A DRY 
LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER IS MORE LIKELY.  WITH A WET SPRING...A 
WET LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER IS LIKELY.

...OUTLOOK...

NORMAL CHANCES FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF 2006 FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED ON
NEAR NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS.

&&

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC

AND CLICK ON "RIVERS & LAKES AHPS".

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFVSMAP.SHTML

FOR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFPAGE.HTML

$$