HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
830 AM MST FRI MAR 10 2006

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS OUTLOOK USES THE TERM GOODLAND SERVICE AREA TO REFER TO MAJOR 
RIVERS LOCATED 
  - IN YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO
  - IN DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA
  - IN 13 NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES WHOSE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARIES
      ARE DELINEATED BY GREELEY...WICHITA...LOGAN...GOVE...
      GRAHAM...AND NORTON COUNTIES. 

THESE RIVER SYSTEMS INCLUDE   
  - THE NORTH AND SOUTH FORKS OF THE REPUBLICAN RIVER   
  - THE REPUBLICAN RIVER
  - BEAVER...SAPPA AND PRAIRIE DOG CREEKS
  - SOUTH AND NORTH FORKS OF THE SOLOMON RIVER
  - THE SALINE AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS.

...NO FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH MARCH BASED ON CURRENT 
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS...  

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 10, 2006 THROUGH MARCH 24, 2006.

OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED 
NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE... 
SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED. 
OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION. THUS...IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL...THEN 
ACTUAL CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF 
FLOOD EVENTS IN THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS 
OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION...OR LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE 
PRECIPITATION.

LITTLE RELIEF FROM EXTENDED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAS MATERIALIZED 
DURING THIS WINTER...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DEFICITS CONTINUE TO GRIP 
MUCH OF THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA. HOWEVER...COMPARED TO THIS TIME 
LAST YEAR...A ONE-CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT IN THE US DROUGHT MONITOR 
INDEX HAS TRANSPIRED. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR 
(HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML) INDICATES THAT ABNORMALLY 
DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOW PERSIST OVER MOST OF 
NORTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. 
SUB-SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS IN SHORT SUPPLY. 

CONSEQUENTLY...WATER LEVELS AT MOST AREA RESERVOIRS CONTINUE 
LOW...WHILE AMPLE CAPACITIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFLOWS FROM RAINFALL OR 
SNOWMELT REMAIN. CONSERVATION POOL CAPACITIES AT SWANSON...BONNY... 
AND KEITH SEBELIUS RESERVOIRS RANGE FROM 25 TO 33 PERCENT...WHICH IS 
SIMILAR TO READINGS FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO WINTERS. THE CONSERVATION 
POOL CAPACITY AT ENDERS RESERVOIR IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS AT 27 
PERCENT WHICH IS SIMILAR TO LAST WINTER. OTHER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA 
RESERVOIRS AT HARRY STRUNK AND HUGH BUTLER...HOWEVER...CONTINUE 
IMPROVING...AND ARE NOW AT 80% AND 57% OF CONSERVATION CAPACITY.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 17-23 INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR 
ABOVE OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND ABOVE OR BELOW AVERAGE 
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA. THE 90 DAY 
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK SHOWS A VERY WEAK BIAS TOWARD AN 
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER RELATIVE TO CLIMATE 
NORMALS...AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES. 

GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW PACK...BELOW NORMAL RIVER LEVELS AND SOIL 
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UNFAVORABLE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE 
PROBABILITY OF FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GLD FOR MORE WEATHER AND 
FLOOD INFORMATION.  

$$

SLOAN/BULLER