HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1022 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...
THE GRAND RAPIDS OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN THE GRAND...MUSKEGON...CHIPPEWA...PINE...KALAMAZOO... AND ST JOSEPH RIVER BASINS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID MARCH 13 2006 TO JUNE 11 2006.
BELOW IS TABLE 1 WHICH SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE DURING THE VALID 90 DAY TIME FRAME. FOR MORE DETAILS SUCH AS CHANCES OF EXCEEDING CERTAIN STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS PLEASE REFER TO TABLE 2.
LOCATION FS(FT) CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE NEXT 90 DAYS -------- ------ -------------------------------------------- MUSKEGON RIVER EVART 12.0 LESS THAN 10 % CROTON 9.0 BETWEEN 10% AND 20% LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER MORLEY 6.0 LESS THAN 10% WHITE RIVER WHITEHALL 6.0 LESS THAN 10% PERE MARQUETTE RIVER SCOTTVILLE 5.5 LESS THAN 10% CHIPPEWA RIVER MT PLEASANT 8.0 LESS THAN 10% PINE RIVER ALMA 8.0 LESS THAN 10% RED CEDAR RIVER WILLIAMSTON 9.0 LESS THAN 10% EAST LANSING 7.0 LESS THAN 10% LOOKING GLASS RIVER EAGLE 7.0 BETWEEN 20% AND 30% MAPLE RIVER MAPLE RAPIDS 9.0 BETWEEN 10% AND 20% THORNAPPLE RIVER HASTINGS 7.0 BETWEEN 20% AND 30% CALEDONIA 10.0 LESS THAN 10% ROGUE RIVER ROCKFORD 8.0 LESS THAN 10% FLAT RIVER SMYRNA 6.0 BETWEEN 10% AND 20% GRAND RIVER JACKSON 14.0 LESS THAN 10% EATON RAPIDS 6.0 LESS THAN 10% DIMONDALE 8.0 LESS THAN 10% LANSING 11.0 LESS THAN 10% GRAND LEDGE 11.0 LESS THAN 10% PORTLAND 12.0 LESS THAN 10% IONIA 21.0 LESS THAN 10% LOWELL 15.0 LESS THAN 10% ADA 20.0 LESS THAN 10% GRAND RAPIDS 18.0 LESS THAN 10% KALAMAZOO RIVER MARSHALL 8.0 LESS THAN 10% BATTLE CREEK 9.0 LESS THAN 10% COMSTOCK 9.0 LESS THAN 10% NEW RICHMOND 11.0 LESS THAN 10% BATTLE CREEK BATTLE CREEK 4.0 LESS THAN 10% ST JOSEPH RIVER BURLINGTON 6.5 LESS THAN 10% PORTAGE RIVER VICKSBURG 5.0 LESS THAN 10%
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT EVART HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 11.1 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- MUSKEGON RIVER EVART 12.0 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.5 CROTON 9.0 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.7 9.1 LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER MORLEY 6.0 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.9 WHITE RIVER WHITEHALL 6.0 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.5 5.1 5.3 PERE MARQUETTE RIVER SCOTTVILLE 5.5 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.7 CHIPPEWA RIVER MT PLEASANT 8.0 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 7.2 7.8 PINE RIVER ALMA 8.0 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 6.2 6.6 7.2 RED CEDAR RIVER WILLIAMSTON 9.0 5.1 5.5 5.7 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.6 EAST LANSING 7.0 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 LOOKING GLASS RIVER EAGLE 7.0 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.8 7.2 8.2 MAPLE RIVER MAPLE RAPIDS 9.0 6.4 6.8 7.3 7.6 8.2 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.2 THORNAPPLE RIVER HASTINGS 7.0 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.9 6.3 7.1 7.8 CALEDONIA 10.0 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.6 ROGUE RIVER ROCKFORD 8.0 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.8 7.5 FLAT RIVER SMYRNA 6.0 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.3 GRAND RIVER JACKSON 14.0 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.9 13.1 EATON RAPIDS 6.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.2 5.4 DIMONDALE 8.0 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.5 LANSING 11.0 4.9 5.4 5.8 6.4 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.3 10.1 GRAND LEDGE 11.0 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.7 8.7 PORTLAND 12.0 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.3 8.8 9.0 9.4 9.9 IONIA 21.0 13.1 13.7 15.3 16.5 17.2 17.6 18.3 18.8 20.7 LOWELL 15.0 8.0 8.5 8.8 9.9 10.4 10.8 11.4 12.5 14.4 ADA 20.0 11.0 11.6 12.1 13.6 14.3 15.5 16.2 17.3 18.6 GRAND RAPIDS 18.0 7.3 8.2 9.0 10.5 11.4 12.3 12.9 14.3 15.7 KALAMAZOO RIVER MARSHALL 8.0 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 6.3 BATTLE CREEK 9.0 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.2 COMSTOCK 9.0 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.1 6.5 NEW RICHMOND 11.0 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.5 8.8 BATTLE CREEK BATTLE CREEK 4.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 ST JOSEPH RIVER BURLINGTON 6.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.9 PORTAGE RIVER VICKSBURG 5.0 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE... AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE AREA...AS OF MARCH 10...ARE BELOW NORMAL AND RANGED FROM NONE IN THE ST JOSEPH...KALAMAZOO...AND GRAND RIVER BASINS TO NEAR EIGHT INCHES IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN. LIQUID WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOWPACK RANGED FROM ZERO IN THE ST JOSEPH RIVER BASIN... TO CLOSE TO TWO INCHES IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN.
...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS...
SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA IS ABOVE NORMAL AND FROST DEPTHS ARE ZERO.
...CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS...
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN HIGH RIVER LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SOME RIVERS RUNNING AS MUCH AS THREE TIMES GREATER THAN NORMAL. AS OF MARCH 10...RIVERS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA BUT BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
...WEATHER OUTLOOKS...
THE 6 TO 10 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK...VALID THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MARCH...INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
THE 30 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK INDICATES TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL FALL WITHIN THE NORMAL CLIMATIC RANGE.
THE 90 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITHIN THE NORMAL CLIMATIC RANGE... AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
THESE OUTLOOKS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE INTERNET AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS (LOWER CASE)
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
THE OUTLOOK INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS SPRING. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT OR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING. MINOR FLOODING IS DEFINED AS MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE...BUT POSSIBLY SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT:WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRR/(INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH...NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH...THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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