HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 215 PM EST SAT APR 01 2006
...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
THIS IS THE EIGHTH IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASONS. THESE ARE ISSUED EVERY 2 WEEKS ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT SEASON. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS ASSESSED FOR THE FOLLOWING 2 WEEK PERIOD BASED ON SEVERAL FACTORS.
...RIVER FLOWS AND ICE CONDITIONS...
RIVER FLOWS HAVE DROPPED STEADILY OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS DUE TO THE DRY WEATHER AND ARE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE VERY MILD WEATHER OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEGUN TO MELT ANY REMAINING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MANY OF THE HEADWATER STREAMS ARE STARTING TO RISE BECAUSE OF THIS SNOW MELT.
RIVER ICE IS NOW GONE FROM JUST ABOUT ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. ANY ICE THAT REMAINS IN NORTHERN AREAS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOFT TO PREVENT ANY ICE JAMS FROM FORMING.
...RESERVOIR AND GROUND WATER LEVELS...
RESERVOIR LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT ARE FALLING. THE KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN RESERVOIRS ARE 9.5 AND 15.8 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL RESPECTIVELY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
SHALLOW WELLS ARE NEAR NORMAL WITH DEEPER GROUND WATER LEVELS BEING ABOVE NORMAL. GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE DROPPING BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT TYPICAL OF SPRING. IF AT LEAST NORMAL RAINFALL DOESN'T OCCUR BEFORE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION KICKS IN...IT IS LIKELY THAT GROUND WATER LEVELS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 WEEKS.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 2 WEEKS...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.
...SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...
IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE THE GROUND IS BARE. IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SNOW DEPTH IS PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES AT MOST. IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COOS COUNTY SNOW DEPTH IS MORE COMPLETE AND ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 INCHES.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE RANGES FROM AND INCH OR SO IN THE VALLEYS WITH 4 TO AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
IN WESTERN MAINE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS THE SNOW IS GONE. IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST MAINE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EVEN IN THIS AREA SOME OF THE SNOW IS NOW BECOMING PATCHY.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF MAINE RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ARE MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR IN BOTH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. MOST SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT READINGS ARE IN THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT.
...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 WEEKS. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
...IN CONCLUSION...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.
TFH