HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 355 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE SPRING.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ISSUES A SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ONCE EACH SPRING. IT IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SOIL MOISTURE...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS...RESERVOIR LEVELS...AND FUTURE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. SNOW COVER IS ALSO FACTORED IN IF IT HAS OCCURRED.
.CURRENT CONDITIONS... 2006 STARTED OUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE RAINFALL BOOKS...BUT A DRY FEBRUARY HAS LED TO MOST AREAS FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR CALENDAR YEAR 2005.
IN 2005...MOST OBSERVING LOCATIONS RECORDED BETWEEN 80 AND 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL. SO FAR IN 2006...RAINFALL IS NEAR NORMAL TO SEVERAL INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL. LONG TERM DROUGHT MONITORING INDICATES CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TRIBUTARIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE MAINSTEM TENNESSEE RIVER. THE PAINT ROCK RIVER NEAR WOODVILLE WAS AT ONLY 12 PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOW...AND THE FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO WAS AT ONLY 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOW.
.7 DAY FORECAST... ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY...A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY...APRIL 14TH. SOME AREAS MAY SEE EVEN MORE THANKS TO A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
.8-14 DAY OUTLOOK... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
.SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY... EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS... PROBABILITIES OF LONG-TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE PROVIDED WEEKLY BY THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER IN SLIDELL LOUISIANA. THESE PROBABILITIES ARE USED FOR PLANNING PURPOSES AND FACTOR IN HISTORICAL CONDITIONS IN MULTIPLE SCENARIOS. THEY DO NOT INCLUDE FUTURE RAINFALL.
THESE PROBABILITIES INDICATE A NEAR AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING FOR THE 90 DAY PERIOD ENDING JUNE 4TH 2006...ABOUT 20 PERCENT ON THE ELK RIVER NEAR FAYETTEVILLE...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ON THE FLINT RIVER NEAR CHASE...ABOUT 25 PERCENT ON THE PAINT ROCK RIVER NEAR WOODVILLE...AND ABOUT 40 PERCENT ON THE BIG NANCE CREEK AT COURTLAND.
THESE FIGURES ARE FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY. DO NOT USE THEM AS A MEANS OF IGNORING FLOOD THREATS THAT MAY OCCUR WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. IF FLOOD OUTLOOKS...WATCHES...OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND PROPERTY.
.WRAPUP... THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2005 IS AVERAGE.
THIS PRODUCT IS DESIGNED TO GIVE THE PUBLIC AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AN OUTLOOK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THIS AND OTHER HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE UNDER THE RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS MENU.
NATIONAL FLOOD SAFETY AWARENESS WEEK IS MARCH 20TH THROUGH 24TH. VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE TO LEARN MORE.
STREAM AND RAINFALL DATA ARE PROVIDED BY THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COOPERATIVE AND BACKYARD WEATHER OBSERVERS.
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