HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
904 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THIS OUTLOOK APPLIES TO THE WICHITA HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WHICH
INCLUDES THE ARKANSAS RIVER, SMOKY HILL RIVER, VERDIGRIS RIVER AND
NEOSHO RIVER AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES IN CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE, SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND
STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED. OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO
BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. THUS...IF
FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL...THEN THE MAGNITUDE OF FLOODING
EXPERIENCED WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FLOOD EVENTS IN THE WICHITA SERVICE AREA RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS
OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION...OR LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION.
THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL AT
ANY TIME CAN LEAD TO FLOODING...EVEN WHEN THE SNOWMELT FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS LOW.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE NEOSHO RIVER AT OSWEGO HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 17 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE REACHING 19.0 FEET.
A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE
FORECASTS IS GIVEN BELOW THE TABLE.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID TO MAY 25, 2006
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
ARKANSAS RIVER
GREAT BEND 12.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.7
HUTCHINSON 8.0 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.3 4.4
HAVEN 10.0 3.0 3.3 3.5 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.6 6.2 8.3
DERBY 12.0 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.6 5.1 5.4 8.7 11.3
MULVANE 16.5 7.7 8.1 8.3 8.5 9.0 9.4 9.7 13.2 16.3
OXFORD 17.0 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.8 11.4 12.0 12.6 16.3 19.2
ARKANSAS CITY 17.0 10.7 11.0 11.6 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.3 17.5 21.0
WALNUT CREEK
ALBERT 24.0 2.9 3.0 3.3 4.6 6.4 7.9 10.3 11.5 14.0
COW CREEK
LYONS 18.0 4.3 5.8 7.2 8.2 9.8 10.8 12.6 15.1 17.3
LITTLE ARKANSAS RIVER
ALTA MILLS 22.0 2.0 4.0 5.7 6.4 10.2 11.9 12.9 16.4 23.5
HALSTEAD 25.0 6.5 8.0 9.2 9.7 12.7 14.2 15.0 18.3 24.7
SEDGWICK 22.0 4.3 5.3 6.3 8.0 9.4 10.4 11.1 18.2 23.4
COWSKIN CREEK
AT 119TH ST 18.0 7.2 8.8 9.2 9.8 11.1 12.5 13.2 14.3 18.7
SOUTH FORK NINNESCAH RIVER
MURDOCK 8.0 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.8 8.9
NINNESCAH RIVER
PECK 17.0 4.9 5.2 5.4 6.3 6.7 7.0 8.2 11.4 16.2
BELLE PLAINE 23.0 10.7 11.0 11.4 12.2 12.7 13.0 14.6 17.5 21.4
WHITEWATER RIVER
TOWANDA 22.0 3.4 4.2 4.9 5.5 7.6 8.6 10.1 12.5 21.8
AUGUSTA 21.0 5.3 5.6 6.4 7.6 8.9 10.3 11.9 15.2 22.0
WEST BRANCH WALNUT RIVER
EL DORADO 21.0 7.3 8.6 9.0 11.5 12.6 14.3 15.2 16.1 18.8
WALNUT RIVER
EL DORADO 19.0 3.5 4.5 4.6 5.5 7.1 9.0 10.1 11.5 13.6
AUGUSTA 23.0 6.8 7.8 8.9 9.4 11.4 13.5 16.3 18.7 23.0
WINFIELD 18.0 3.6 4.5 5.4 6.4 7.3 8.8 11.5 15.9 29.0
ARKANSAS CITY 18.0 5.5 6.2 7.2 8.2 9.1 10.9 12.6 14.3 19.0
CHIKASKIA RIVER
CORBIN 10.0 2.3 3.6 6.1 6.8 7.9 8.5 9.7 10.8 13.2
FALL RIVER
FREDONIA 17.0 4.3 6.7 7.6 8.4 10.1 10.9 12.4 14.6 18.0
VERDIGRIS RIVER
ALTOONA 23.0 4.1 6.8 8.7 10.0 11.8 12.8 14.0 18.8 23.5
INDEPENDENCE 30.0 4.6 10.0 11.4 14.5 16.5 19.1 21.0 22.6 26.8
COFFEYVILLE 18.0 2.0 3.3 3.8 4.6 5.5 6.5 8.7 10.0 15.0
COTTONWOOD RIVER
FLORENCE 22.0 4.3 5.2 5.9 6.7 7.5 12.7 23.1 24.2 25.2
COTT.WOOD F. 9.0 1.7 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.9 5.0 7.1 8.0 12.2
PLYMOUTH 32.0 6.0 8.6 10.0 11.3 14.3 19.3 25.8 31.1 33.7
NEOSHO RIVER
IOLA 15.0 8.8 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.5 12.6
CHANUTE 23.0 11.4 12.4 13.2 13.7 15.9 16.4 17.3 19.1 20.9
ERIE 29.0 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.8 19.8 20.4 21.8 24.5 28.0
PARSONS 21.0 10.7 11.5 12.1 13.7 14.7 15.4 17.1 19.9 23.4
OSWEGO 17.0 8.6 9.1 9.5 10.5 11.0 11.3 12.4 15.9 19.0
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY DETERIORATED ACROSS MUCH OF
WICHITA'S HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SERVICE AREA RECEIVED NO PRECIPITATION
AT ALL FOR FEBRUARY WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS RECEIVED LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR FEBRUARY RANGES
FROM 0.75 INCHES IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WAY BELOW NORMAL...
LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOWPACK IN
THE WICHITA SERVICE AREA.
MOISTURE DEFICITS DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA HAVE TOTALED BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES.
THIS ANNOTATES THE 90 DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT BELOW NORMAL
VALUES BETWEEN 5 TO 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH A FEW AREAS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BETWEEN 25 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
THE PERSISTENT DRYNESS HAS LEAD TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE SERVICE AREA. THE LATEST U.S.DROUGHT MONITOR
(HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML) INDICATES THAT MODERATE
TO SEVERE DROUGHT HAS ENCOMPASSED 90 PERCENT OF WICHITA'S SERVICE
AREA AND THE OTHER 10 PERCENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS REMAINS UNDER
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S (CPC)
SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLS FOR PERSISTENT OR WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH MAY.
STREAM FLOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ARE RUNNING BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS EXPERIENCING NORMAL
TO BELOW NORMAL FLOWS. RESERVOIRS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ON AVERAGE
AT 98 PERCENT OF THEIR CONSERVATION POOL WITH MORE THAN 100 PERCENT
OF THE FLOOD-CONTROL STORAGE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE.
THE CPC IS INDICATING EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL, BELOW NORMAL,
AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA THIS SPRING (MAR-APR-
MAY). CPC IS ALSO CALLING FOR INCREASED CHANCE (33-40%) OF BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THAT PERIOD. WITH EMPTY FLOOD-CONTROL
POOLS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS, THIS SPRING'S FLOOD OUTLOOK IS A BELOW AVERAGE RISK
OF FLOODING.
$$
SPURGEON