HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
800 AM CST FRI MARCH 10 2006
...SPRING 2006 FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...
-ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HENRY TO BEARDSTOWN
-SPOON RIVER FROM LONDON MILLS TO SEVILLE
-MACKINAW RIVER
-SANGAMON RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES
-LITTLE WABASH RIVER NEAR CLAY CITY
-EMBARRAS RIVER FROM STE MARIE TO LAWRENCEVILLE
ACCORDING TO THE ILLINOIS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...SINCE JULY OF 2005
AND UP AND INCLUDING JANUARY 2006...PRECIPITATION ACROSS ILLINOIS HAS
AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL IN 4 OF THE PAST 7 MONTHS...INCLUDING JANUARY
2006. HOWEVER...SEVERE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS IN MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE MARCH THROUGH JUNE 2005 TIME FRAME WERE
STILL CAUSING PROBLEMS THROUGH FEBRUARY 2006 WITH LOW
STREAMFLOWS...DEPLETED SOIL MOISTURE AND LOW GROUNDWATER AND
RESERVOIR LEVELS.
THE PATTERN WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF CHANGING DURING THE FIRST WEEK IN
MARCH...AND PERHAPS BRINGING AN IMPROVEMENT TO THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LINCOLN
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). STREAMFLOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH
HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED AS SEVERELY AS ACROSS THE NORTH...WERE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL INTO THE START OF MARCH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE HSA
SINCE MARCH 8TH...AFFECTING THE LITTLE WABASH...EMBARRAS AND PARTS
OF THE SANGAMON RIVER BASINS.
RIVER BASINS AT GREATEST RISK...AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
MARCH...INCLUDE THE SANGAMON...VERMILION... EMBARRAS AND LITTLE
WABASH. CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY WITHIN EACH OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BASINS AND USERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE MOST RECENT
HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS FOR UPDATES. PLEASE REFER TO THE WEB PAGE LISTED
AT THE END OF THIS PRODUCT FOR THE MOST RECENT FLOOD
INFORMATION...INCLUDING THE EXTENDED PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS THROUGH
SPRING 2006.
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES...AHPS...ENABLES
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...NWS...TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...THE CHANCES OF THE RIVER RISING ABOVE THE
LISTED STAGE DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLES USING THE TABLE BELOW THIS SECTION...
THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 14 FEET.
WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS...THERE IS A 47 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 14 FEET.
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID MAR 13 2006 - JUN 11 2006
ALL STAGES IN FEET
LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
ILLINOIS RIVER
HENRY 23.0 15.6 16.7 17.8 18.8 19.8 20.4 21.1 22.8 25.0
PEORIA 18.0 11.5 12.1 13.0 13.7 14.3 15.8 17.5 18.9 20.9
HAVANA 14.0 9.1 10.9 12.7 13.5 14.2 14.7 15.7 17.8 19.4
BEARDSTOWN 14.0 10.3 10.9 11.9 12.7 13.8 14.4 16.0 19.0 21.2
SPOON RIVER
LONDON MILLS 15.0 4.6 5.6 7.0 9.1 10.5 11.6 14.6 15.9 17.4
SEVILLE 22.0 7.6 9.2 10.7 12.0 14.1 15.9 18.2 21.1 22.7
MACKINAW RIVER
CONGERVILLE 13.0 3.8 4.6 5.7 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 11.0 13.7
SANGAMON RIVER
MONTICELLO 13.0 9.1 10.4 11.2 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.5
RIVERTON 23.0 7.3 9.5 12.2 14.2 15.4 17.7 18.8 21.6 23.7
PETERSBURG 23.0 7.5 8.1 9.8 11.1 12.8 14.2 17.7 23.2 24.8
SALT CREEK
GREENVIEW 16.0 4.7 6.0 7.8 9.4 10.6 11.3 12.6 14.1 18.4
LOCATION FS / 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
SANGAMON RIVER
OAKFORD 471.0
459.7 461.4 463.0 464.3 465.7 466.6 468.9 470.7 473.4
CHANDLERVILLE 456.6
446.8 448.2 449.8 451.4 452.8 453.8 455.9 457.7 460.1
LOCATION FS (FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
VERMILION RIVER
DANVILLE 18.0 7.7 8.7 10.1 13.2 15.8 21.3 24.6
LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CLAY CITY 16.0 14.7 16.2 18.8 19.6 21.0 22.0 24.2
EMBARRAS RIVER
STE MARIE 19.0 5.8 6.6 10.1 13.2 17.1 19.4 21.1
LAWRENCEVILLE 30.0 22.3 24.2 26.5 28.9 33.3 35.5 38.1
THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK (MARCH 14TH THRU MARCH 18TH) CALLS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WHILE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD ARE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHILE EARLY MORNING LOWS
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. AVERAGE PRECIPITATION RANGES
FROM A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.
FURTHER OUT...THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WHILE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT MONTH AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL. FOR THE NEXT
MONTH..."NORMAL" PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FROM 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES.
NOTES...
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SPRING SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SNOW COVER AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC
NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS ARE PART
OF THE AHPS SUITE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
___________________________________________________________________
FOR MORE INFORMATION...
VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX (USE LOWER CASE) FOR
MORE OFFICIAL NWS RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION. TO VIEW GRAPHICAL
AHPS INFORMATION...INCLUDING FORECASTS...SELECT "AHPS/RIVER INFO"
FROM THE LIST ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE WEB PAGE. FULL AHPS GRAPHICS
ARE AVAILABLE ALL FORECAST POINTS IN THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
FOR 30...60 AND 90 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...
VISIT THE WEB PAGE OF THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV (USE LOWER CASE).
FOR CURRENT CLIMATIC INFORMATION FOR ILLINOIS AND THE MIDWEST...VISIT
THE MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER CLIMATE WATCH WEB PAGE AT...
HTTP://MCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/CLIWATCH/WATCH.HTM (USE LOWER CASE).
$$
SMITH/KELLY