HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1102 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN THE SAINT JOSEPH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF LAFAYETTE INDIANA IN NORTHERN INDIANA...THE KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF DUNNS BRIDGE IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND THE MAUMEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO UPSTREAM OF GRAND RAPIDS OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES.
...FLOOD POTENTIAL RANGES FROM BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST FLOOD POTENTIAL EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA...
THIS OUTLOOK IS ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THERE IS ONE TABLE FOR THE SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND ANOTHER TABLE FOR THE UPPER WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. BOTH TABLES DISPLAY THE CHANCE OF RIVERS EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS FOR THE UPPER WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS
... VALID MARCH 12 2006 - JUNE 10 2006...
MAUMEE RIVER BASIN... LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
ST. JOSEPH RIVER... MONTPELIER OH 12 8.9 10.3 11.9 12.9 13.8 15.6 16.6 NEWVILLE IN 12 8.6 9.8 12.2 12.9 13.6 15.1 15.9 ST. JOE FT W. IN 12 4.8 5.1 8.2 9.4 11.2 14.4 18.9
ST. MARYS RIVER... DECATUR IN 17 9.6 11.0 13.0 16.0 17.5 21.1 21.9 MULDOON BRIDGE 14 5.5 6.9 7.6 9.8 11.6 15.4 17.3
MAUMEE RIVER... FORT WAYNE IN 17 7.6 8.5 11.0 14.3 17.7 19.0 19.5 DEFIANCE OH 10 3.7 4.0 5.7 7.8 9.4 11.3 11.4 NAPOLEON OH 12 4.0 4.4 6.7 9.2 10.9 12.6 12.8
TIFFIN RIVER... STRYKER OH 11 8.0 9.5 11.0 12.9 13.9 15.7 16.2
BLANCHARD RIVER... OTTAWA OH 23 15.5 17.5 19.1 20.7 21.9 23.1 23.4
AUGLAIZE RIVER... FORT JENNINGS OH 13 5.3 6.3 8.1 11.1 13.2 15.2 16.1 DEFIANCE OH 21 9.6 10.3 11.9 14.5 16.3 18.9 19.3
UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN...
LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
WABASH RIVER... LINN GROVE 11 6.6 6.8 8.1 8.9 9.7 11.7 12.7 BLUFFTON IN 10 5.3 5.9 7.3 8.8 9.8 12.4 13.3 WABASH IN 14 7.8 8.7 9.4 10.9 12.5 13.9 15.0 LOGANSPORT IN 15 6.4 6.6 7.4 8.1 9.1 9.8 10.1
TIPPECANOE RIVER... ORA IN 12 7.5 8.4 9.6 10.7 12.0 12.9 13.8 WINAMAC IN 11 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.5 6.9 8.5 9.4
MISSISSINEWA RIVER... MARION IN 12 3.2 4.5 5.4 6.5 7.5 9.6 12.3
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS FOR THE UPPER KANKAKEE AND ST. JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN
... VALID MARCH 13 2006 - JUNE 11 2006 ...
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% KANKAKEE RIVER... DAVIS IN 10.0 7.9 8.4 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.3 10.6
YELLOW RIVER... PLYMOUTH IN 13.0 7.0 7.9 8.5 9.3 9.8 10.5 11.3 12.1 12.4 KNOX IN 10.0 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.6 8.8
ST. JOSEPH RIVER... THREE RVRS MI 7.0 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.8 MOTTVILLE MI 8.0 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.4 ELKHART IN 24.0 20.1 20.6 20.8 21.2 21.5 21.7 22.1 22.5 23.2 SOUTH BEND IN 5.5 1.3 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.6 4.0 4.6 5.2 NILES MI 11.0 6.2 6.8 7.3 7.7 8.2 8.3 8.8 9.4 10.0
ELKHART RIVER... GOSHEN IN 7.0 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.4 6.0 6.6
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE... SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT... AS OF MARCH 10 2006 THERE WAS NO SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MILD WEATHER OVER THE PAST TWO AND A HALF MONTHS HAS MELTED ALL THE SNOW THAT FELL LAST DECEMBER.
...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH... SOIL MOISTURE AS MEASURED BY THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FOR DATA THROUGH MARCH 4 2006 RANGED FROM MINUS 2.5 OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA TO A PLUS 2.9 OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHEAST INDIANA HAD VALUES RANGING FROM MINUS 0.7 TO PLUS 0.4. SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO HAD VALUES BETWEEN PLUS 1.3 AND PLUS 1.9
READINGS BETWEEN PLUS 2 AND PLUS 3 INDICATE UNUSUAL MOIST SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. READINGS BETWEEN PLUS 1.9 AND MINUS 1.9 INDICATE NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE AND READINGS BETWEEN MINUS 2 AND MINUS 2.9 INDICATE MODERATE DROUGHT.
THE DROUGHT MONITOR WITH DATA THROUGH MARCH 7 2006 INDICATE THAT NORTHWEST INDIANA IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT WITH FAR NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN HAVING ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE AREA HAD NORMAL OR MORE MOIST CONDITIONS.
WITH THE WARM WEATHER OVER THE PAST TWO AND A HALF MONTHS...THE SOILS ARE COMPLETELY THAWED.
...RIVER CONDITIONS... CURRENTLY FLOWS ON THE MAUMEE AND UPPER WABASH RIVER BASINS ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH PERCENT FLOWS RUNNING FROM 10 TO 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN HAD FLOWS AS MEASURED BY THE USGS IN THE 10 TO 24 PERCENTILE RANGE...WHILE THE ST. JOSEPH MICHIGAN RIVER BASIN HAD FLOWS IN THE 25 TO 74 PERCENTILE RANGE. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA WITH ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. ALL RIVERS AND LAKES ARE CURRENTLY ICE FREE.
...WEATHER OUTLOOKS... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM FRIDAY MARCH 10 THROUGH TUESDAY MARCH 14. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN IN SEVERAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN BEING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM WEDNESDAY MARCH 15 2006 TO SUNDAY MARCH 19 2006 CALLS FOR A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30 DEGREES. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS AROUND A HALF INCH.
THE 30 DAY CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. BY THE END OF MARCH NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH IS AROUND 2.9 INCHES.
...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY... LOW RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DRY SOILS IN OUR NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL AS THAWED SOIL POINT TO BELOW NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL. HOWEVER MORE MOIST SOILS TO OUR EAST INCREASE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. FLOOD POTENTIAL RANGES FROM BELOW NORMAL FOR THE UPPER KANKAKEE...ST. JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN AND UPPER WABASH RIVER BASINS TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE MAUMEE RIVER BASIN. HEAVY RAINS INCREASE FLOOD POTENTIAL.
WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE IN AREAS WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.
THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAJOR FLOODING...50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE FLOODING AND 90 PERCENT CHANCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE ST. JOSEPH /OHIO/ RIVER WHICH IS IN THE MAUMEE RIVER BASIN. THERE IS ALSO A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE FLOODING AND A 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE TIFFIN RIVER IN NORTHWEST OHIO WHICH IS ALSO PART OF THE MAUMEE RIVER BASIN. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE AND 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING ON THE ST. MARYS RIVER WHICH IS ALSO IN THE MAUMEE RIVER BASIN. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE FLOODING AND A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE AUGLAIZE RIVER WHICH IS ALSO A PART OF THE MAUMEE RIVER BASIN.
THERE IS A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING IN THE ST. JOSEPH /MICHIGAN/ RIVER BASIN WHICH COVERS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING IN THE KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN.
THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE FLOODING AND A 25 PERCENT ON THE TIPPECANOE RIVER WHICH IS PART OF THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING ON THE WABASH RIVER WHICH IS IN THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN.
...FLOOD TERMINOLIGY... THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE. HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.
THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TO SAVE PROPERTY. SOME EVACUATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED.
THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND PROPERTY DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (INTERNET ADDRESS IN ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK UNLESS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION WILL BE ISSUING ITS 2006 SPRING OUTLOOK ON THURSDAY...MARCH 16. VISIT: WWW.NOAA.GOV TO OBTAIN INFORMATION ABOUT THIS NATIONAL OUTLOOK.
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