HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 120 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
RAINFALL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... OVERALL RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FALL AND WINTER. WETTER THAN NORMAL PERIODS HAVE BEEN MIXED IN WITH DRYER THAN NORMAL PERIODS. SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUND WATER CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS... FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RIVER LEVELS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. AT THESE LEVELS...A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.
RIVER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. MULTIPLE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS WOULD LIKELY BE NECESSARY TO PRODUCE FLOODING IN THE SUWANNEE AND SANTA FE BASINS.
SEASONAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST... WITH A WEAK LA NINA ONGOING RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH MARCH AND INTO APRIL. BECAUSE OF THE WEAK NATURE OF THE LA NINA EVENT...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO LATE SPRING.
SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IS CHARACTERIZED AS AVERAGE DUE TO THE NEAR NORMAL OBSERVED RAINFALL...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS...AND BELOW NORMAL FORECAST RAINFALL.
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA IS CHARACTERIZED AS AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE NEAR NORMAL OBSERVED RAINFALL...MODEST RIVER LEVELS...AND BELOW NORMAL FORECAST RAINFALL.
A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HOWEVER MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT MONTH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.
THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...SAINT JOHNS WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE USGS PROVIDED DATA IN SUPPORT OF THIS SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK.
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CAMP