HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1258 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF
KENTUCKY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY...BIG
SANDY...AND LICKING RIVER BASINS.
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 10TH THROUGH MARCH 23RD.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE CUMBERLAND RIVER AT WILLIAMSBURG HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF
21.0 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 25.5 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD 3/12/2006 - 6/10/2006
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- ---
RUSSELL FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
ELKHORN CITY 21.0 9.1 9.9 10.8 13.1 15.2 19.1
LEVISA FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
PIKEVILLE 35.0 14.3 18.0 25.0 32.9 35.0 38.4
PRESTONSBURG 40.0 12.9 16.7 26.3 32.0 37.0 40.8
PAINTSVILLE 35.0 12.1 18.0 26.3 31.2 39.1 45.2
CUMBERLAND RIVER
CUMBERLAND 12.0 4.9 5.9 6.6 8.3 9.3 9.7
BAXTER 16.0 3.7 6.6 8.5 14.0 16.0 19.3
PINEVILLE 1002.0 982.0 986.9 993.8 1000.3 1011.6 1014.0
BARBOURVILLE 27.0 10.7 18.5 23.6 28.2 35.5 38.2
WILLIAMSBURG 21.0 12.2 17.0 20.6 25.5 32.7 35.2
NORTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
HAZARD 20.0 6.0 7.7 11.8 15.3 18.7 22.0
JACKSON 29.0 8.3 12.0 17.6 24.7 32.2 36.9
SOUTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
ONEIDA 29.0 13.1 14.5 18.8 22.2 29.3 33.0
BOONEVILLE 27.0 11.4 14.8 20.3 29.0 36.0 37.3
KENTUCKY RIVER
RAVENNA 21.0 17.3 18.5 21.4 26.5 34.8 39.3
HEIDELBERG 20.0 15.5 16.8 18.7 21.0 23.6 25.0
RED RIVER
CLAY CITY 17.0 8.5 9.9 12.3 15.4 18.1 19.2
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS
OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).
THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING DUE TO CURRENT
CONDITIONS OF GROUND MOISTURE...RIVER FLOWS...AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. SNOWMELT AND ICE JAMS ARE
USUALLY NOT A FACTOR IN FLOODING IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.
FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH TO DATE...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE BETWEEN ONE
HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH IS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF THE
MONTH. SOILS ARE DRIER THAN NORMAL...AND STREAMFLOW IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HOWEVER RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE NEAR
NORMAL.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID MARCH 17 THROUGH 23...CALLS FOR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
BETWEEN SEVEN AND EIGHT TENTHS OF AN INCH.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...BELOW
NORMAL...AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORMAL MARCH PRECIPITATION IS
AROUND FOUR AND A HALF INCHES.
THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY...CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCE
OF ABOVE NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL...AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF EVERY MONTH.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY (ALL LOWER CASE)
$$
WESTERGARD