HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1100 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
SUMMARY... THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE IMPROVED IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2006...RUNNING FROM ABOUT ONE HALF INCH BELOW NORMAL NEAR ALEXANDRIA TO MORE THAN 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AT BEAUMONT. DESPITE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER CALCASIEU RIVER RECENTLY...STREAMFLOWS ON MANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RIVER BASINS: NECHES AND SABINE
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL ALONG SOME OF THE SMALLER BAYOUS AND TRIBUTARIES...WHILE THE LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. STREAMFLOW ALONG THE NECHES RIVER JUST BELOW DAM B NEAR TOWN BLUFF ARE NEAR RECORD LOW VALUES AS RELEASES HAVE BEEN REDUCED AT STEINHAGEN LAKE DUE TO LOW WATER LEVELS.
WATER LEVELS ON SOUTHEAST TEXAS RESERVOIRS ARE BELOW NORMAL POOL LEVELS. WATER LEVELS AT SAM RAYBURN RESERVOIR ARE ABOUT 2 FEET BELOW NORMAL, WHILE AT STEINHAGEN LAKE AND TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR, WATER LEVELS ARE 5 TO 6 FEET BELOW NORMAL.
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AND ON NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS, FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NECHES AND SABINE RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES.
CENTRAL LOUISIANA RIVER BASIN: RED
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST TO OCCUR. STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING MUCH BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH STREAMFLOW AT ALEXANDRIA ABOUT 9% OF NORMAL.
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS, AND ON NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS, A BELOW AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER RED RIVER BASIN.
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA RIVER BASINS: CALCASIEU...MERMENTAU AND VERMILION
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING, BUT MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE UPPER CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR GLENMORA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINS. OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING MUCH BELOW NORMAL. OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS AS OF MARCH 9 ARE GIVEN BELOW:
3/9 CALCASIEU RIVER GLENMORA LA 14% WHISKY CHITTO CREEK MITTIE LA 19% CALCASIEU RIVER KINDER LA 37%
BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS, AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CALCASIEU, MERMENTAU AND VERMILION RIVER BASINS.
OUTLOOK... THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SPRING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
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LOCKWOOD