HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1000 AM EST FRI MAR 24 2006
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
AND THE OHIO RIVER FROM MADISON INDIANA TO TELL CITY INDIANA.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT FRANKFORT LOCK HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF
31.0 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 22.8 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD 3/26/2006 - 6/24/2006
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- ---
OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 451.0 431.9 434.1 442.5 446.8 450.7 451.7
MCALPINE UPPER 23.0 14.5 15.9 19.5 22.5 27.3 28.4
MCALPINE LOWER 55.0 33.5 36.0 48.1 52.5 58.2 59.5
CANNELTON LOCK 42.0 27.5 30.9 40.0 42.5 44.6 45.0
TELL CITY 38.0 26.4 29.8 39.2 42.0 43.9 44.3
KENTUCKY RIVER
FORD LOCK 26.0 15.6 16.8 19.0 21.6 24.3 29.2
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 30.0 15.8 17.2 20.4 23.9 29.8 38.2
FRANKFORT LOCK 31.0 11.3 12.3 17.3 22.8 29.1 37.2
SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 32.0 4.7 6.2 8.3 13.5 23.6 27.7
ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 35.0 14.6 24.5 29.3 39.7 45.0 48.5
MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 20.0 9.7 12.3 17.7 20.8 22.7 25.1
GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 28.0 6.3 9.6 12.7 18.1 29.4 35.2
BROWNSVILLE 18.0 10.4 12.1 13.6 15.0 19.0 23.6
WOODBURY 33.0 13.8 19.9 27.5 37.3 43.9 45.1
ROCHESTER 17.0 11.5 13.5 15.8 21.0 25.4 26.8
BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 28.0 9.0 11.3 15.8 23.0 27.1 32.6
ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 25.0 16.1 18.0 20.2 24.5 28.0 28.6
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS).
THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA BUT A NORMAL CHANCE IN KENTUCKY DUE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
GROUND MOISTURE...RIVER FLOWS...AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT TWO WEEKS. SNOWMELT AND ICE JAMS ARE USUALLY NOT A FACTOR IN
FLOODING IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.
FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH TO DATE...PRECIPITATION WAS RANGED FROM
ABOUT FOUR TO FIVE INCHES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHERN INDIANA TO ONE TO
TWO INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN KENTUCKY. SOILS ARE MOST IN INDIANA BUT
DRY IN KENTUCKY. STREAMFLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL IN INDIANA BUT BELOW
NORMAL IN KENTUCKY. FLOWS ON THE OHIO RIVER ARE BELOW NORMAL.
RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID MARCH 31 THROUGH APRIL 6...CALLS FOR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS AROUND SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH.
THE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL CALLS FOR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN FOUR AND FIVE INCHES.
THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR APRIL THROUGH JUNE...CALLS FOR NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF EVERY MONTH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPRING FLOOD AND
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK THIS YEAR.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE AT...
http://weather.gov/lmk/
CALLAHAN