HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1130 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD THREAT BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...
THIS SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR RIVERS IN THE UPPER ILLINOIS BASIN IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND THE UPPER ROCK RIVER IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID MAR 13 2006 TO JUN 11 2006
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
FOR EXAMPLE: THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DUNNS BRIDGE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 9.9 FT.
LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- KANKAKEE RIVER DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 5.2 5.8 7.1 7.8 8.4 8.9 9.4 9.9 10.7 KOUTS 11.0 6.2 6.8 7.9 8.7 9.3 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.6 SHELBY 9.0 6.6 7.8 8.5 8.9 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.0 MOMENCE 5.0 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.8 6.0 WILMINGTON 6.5 2.9 3.3 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.5 6.3
IROQUOIS RIVER IROQUOIS 18.0 14.4 15.5 16.0 16.9 17.9 18.6 19.9 20.5 21.2 CHEBANSE 16.0 8.1 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.4 11.5 12.4 13.4 14.8
DES PLAINES RIVER RUSSELL 7.0 4.2 5.0 5.5 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.7 GURNEE 7.0 3.0 3.7 4.2 4.6 5.1 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.4 DES PLAINES 5.0 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.9 4.5 6.0 RIVERSIDE 7.0 4.3 4.7 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.4
FOX RIVER ALGONQUIN 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 DAYTON 12.0 7.3 7.7 8.7 9.7 10.2 10.5 11.2 11.9 12.6
VERMILION RIVER PONTIAC 14.0 5.5 6.5 7.4 7.9 8.6 9.6 11.2 12.9 14.4 LEONORE 16.0 5.8 7.1 7.9 9.5 10.5 11.4 13.4 17.0 18.4
THORN CREEK THORNTON 10.0 5.4 6.4 7.1 7.6 8.8 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.6
LITTLE CALUMET RIVER MUNSTER 12.0 7.8 8.6 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.0 10.4 11.0 11.6 SOUTH HOLLAND 13.0 8.8 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.9 12.9 13.5 14.9 15.9
ILLINOIS RIVER MORRIS 16.0 7.6 9.1 11.0 12.4 12.9 13.4 15.3 16.7 18.7 LA SALLE 20.0 14.3 16.3 18.4 20.1 20.7 21.4 22.8 24.4 25.9
KISHWUAUKEE RIVER BELVIDERE 9.0 2.1 2.7 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.7 5.1 6.0 6.7 PERRYVILLE 12.0 6.8 7.4 8.1 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.4 11.1 11.7
SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER DE KALB 10.0 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.6 7.3 7.5 7.9 8.4 9.8
ROCK RIVER ROCKTON 10.0 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.7 8.3 10.6 LATHAM PARK 10.0 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.7 7.1 7.6 8.2 10.2 ROCKFORD 9.0 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.4 8.8 BYRON 13.0 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.9 9.5 10.0 10.5 12.3
PECATONICA RIVER SHIRLAND 12.0 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.8 8.4 9.4 10.5 11.6
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.
...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT... NO SNOW COVER REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OR NORTHWEST INDIANA.
...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS... AVERAGE RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH FELL OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER ROCK...UPPER FOX...UPPER DES PLAINES...AND KANKAKEE RIVER BASINS DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS. THIS RAIN BROUGHT MOISTURE IN THE UPPER SOIL PROFILE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. DEEPER SOIL MOISTURE HOWEVER REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE NORTHERN THIRD OF ILLINOIS CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WHILE NORTHWEST INDIANA WAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE ELIMINATED ANY SIGNIFICANT FROST IN THE SOIL.
...RIVER CONDITIONS... SOME OF THE SMALLER URBAN BASINS AROUND THE CHICAGO METRO AREA HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL...HOWEVER STREAMFLOW ON THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVERS WITHIN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA REMAINS BELOW NORMAL.
...WEATHER OUTLOOKS... THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST VALID MARCH 15-19 INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 40S WITH NORMAL LOWS AROUND 30. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD IS AROUND 1/2 INCH.
THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF MARCH INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY... DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO OFFICE IN ROMEOVILLE ISSUES LONG RANGE AHPS OUTLOOKS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT IS UPDATED MONTHLY AROUND MID-MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
FLOOD CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR THE MOST CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO.
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WDM