HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EST THU MAR 30 2006

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...NUMBER 7

...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA IN MODERATE DROUGHT...

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE 
STERLING FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE DROUGHT CATEGORY AS OF TODAY.
THE MODERATE DROUGHT AREA RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE 
FROM ANNAPOLIS TO CHARLOTTESVILLE. 

PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR MARCH WILL SHATTER AT BALTIMORE AND 
WASHINGTON DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL. AT REAGAN NATIONAL 
AIRPORT...ONLY 0.05 INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS MONTH SO FAR. THE 
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 0.57 INCH WHICH OCCURRED 96 YEARS AGO IN 1910. 
IN BALTIMORE...0.18 INCH OF PRECIPITATION FELL IN MARCH. THE 
PREVIOUS DRY RECORD WAS SET IN 1910 ALSO WHEN 0.46 FELL IN THE CITY. 
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW 
NIGHT...BUT DUE TO TIMING AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED...IT DOES 
NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE RECORDS FROM BEING BROKEN FOR 
MARCH.  

NEITHER STATION HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH OF 
PRECIPITATION FROM ONE EVENT SINCE THE SNOWSTORM OF FEBRUARY 11TH 
AND 12TH. 

RIVER FLOW ON THE POTOMAC JUST ABOVE WASHINGTON IS WELL BELOW 
NORMAL. AS OF NOON TODAY...DISCHARGE WAS 4110 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND. 
THE AVERAGE FOR MARCH IS 23540 CFS. THE RECORD LOW FLOW AT THE SITE 
OCCURRED IN SEPTEMBER 1966...WHEN A FLOW OF ONLY 66 CUBIC FEET PER 
SECOND WAS MEASURED. ON THE RAPPAHANNOCK JUST ABOVE FREDERICKSBURG
...DISCHARGE WAS 614 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
AVERAGE FOR MARCH IS 2698 CFS. RIVER FLOW DATA COMPLIMENTS OF THE 
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY. 

THE 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR THE AREA INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT TILT 
OF THE ODDS TOWARD WETTER OR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. IN THE 
SHORTER TERM...NO SIGNIFCANT RAINFALL IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 
NEXT 7 DAYS. 

THE MID ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER INDICATES THAT RESERVOIR 
CONDITIONS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME. 

GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND LACK OF RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST...THE 
RISK OF FLOODING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS IS QUITE LOW. THE RISK 
OF WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IF DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. 

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: 

	http://www.weather.gov/washington/

HITCHENS 
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NWS FORECAST OFFICE STERLING VA