HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
...FOR SPRING 2006, NORMAL FLOODING POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.
EXISTING CONDITIONS
SOIL MOISTURE -- SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR
ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE
PASCAGOULA BASIN. OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING MUCH
BELOW NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST TO OCCUR. THE
OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW.
3/9
LEAF RIVER MCLAIN MS 25%
CHICKASAWHAY RIVER LEAKESVILLE MS 39%
PASCAGOULA RIVER MERRILL MS 35%
BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS, AND
NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS, AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PASCAGOULA RIVER BASIN.
AVERAGE DAILY STREAM FLOW IS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OCCASIONAL
VARIANCES OCCUR IF THERE HAS BEEN RECENT RAINFALL, OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE
NO RIVERS CURRENTLY AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK -- AS THE SOUTHEAST MOVES INTO A MORE
TRANSITIONAL ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN SPRING AND SUMMER, THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL ARE INCREASING. RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE IN THE
NORMAL RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
OUTLOOK... NORMAL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
2006. WITH NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED ON NEAR NORMAL SOIL, MOST
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA, SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR SPRING 2006.
FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA...VISIT OUR INTERNET
WEB SITES AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB
$$