HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
922 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
IN THE TABLES BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90
DAYS. EXAMPLE...THE OHIO RIVER AT SHAWNEETOWN HAS A FLOOD STAGE
OF 33 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 75 PERCENT CHANCE THE
RIVER WILL REACH AND RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 3/13/2006 - 6/11/2006
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD 20 15.7 17.9 19.3 20.3 21.2 22.2 23.6 24.7 30.0
MURPHYSBORO 22 13.0 16.9 18.9 20.7 22.6 25.5 27.2 29.8 33.9
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 3/12/2006 - 6/10/2006
LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
OHIO RIVER
OWENSBORO 40 28.0 29.6 33.3 38.0 41.1 42.7 43.4
NEWBURGH LOWER 38 30.7 32.7 37.1 42.3 44.3 45.2 45.8
EVANSVILLE 42 26.7 29.4 33.8 39.2 41.6 43.3 43.5
MOUNT VERNON 35 27.1 28.9 32.4 37.9 40.6 43.3 43.4
JT MYERS LOWER 37 26.8 30.8 33.8 40.5 43.4 47.2 47.8
SHAWNEETOWN 33 26.8 31.0 33.8 41.0 44.3 48.2 48.8
GOLCONDA 40 31.4 32.8 34.6 40.7 44.0 47.3 48.4
GREEN RIVER
PARADISE 380 371.4 374.1 379.2 383.8 389.7 395.5 396.9
CALHOUN 23 13.5 14.3 15.8 17.0 21.2 28.0 29.3
WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY 15 8.8 11.4 13.8 15.9 18.5 19.0 20.0
PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON 18 9.2 10.4 14.0 18.5 21.1 23.5 24.5
LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI 27 15.0 17.2 22.1 26.9 32.1 34.3 35.9
SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY 15 7.6 8.1 9.8 12.1 18.1 21.1 23.3
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS
OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.
...SNOW...FROST AND SOIL CONDITIONS...
NO SNOW OR FROST EXISTS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA. DURING THE FALL AND
EARLY WINTER...DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXISTED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 90 DAYS HAS AVERAGED
BELOW NORMAL. UP UNTIL MARCH 9...SOIL CONDITIONS WERE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY DRY. HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
LAST 48 HOURS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTENED THE REGION. SOIL
CONDITIONS ARE NOW MOIST TO WET ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PORTIONS
OF KENTUCKY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS.
...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
DURING THE LAST 90 DAYS STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT HEAVY RAINS AVERAGED
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES.
LEVELS ON MANY OF THE SMALLER LOCAL RIVERS ARE NOW ELEVATED AND
WILL REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE DURING THE NEXT
WEEK. LOCATIONS ON THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING 20 TO 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL BUT WILL RISE SLOWLY OVER THE
NEXT WEEK.
...WEATHER OUTLOOKS...
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR MARCH 17 TO 23...CALLS FOR NORMAL
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME RUN BETWEEN 46 AND 50
DEGREES AND 7 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH. THE
30 DAY METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK FOR MARCH CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WEST KENTUCKY
AND NORMAL ELSEWHERE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS...MARCH THROUGH
MAY...FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR
BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION...MEANING THERE ARE EQUAL
CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL...NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS.
...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITY FOR EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. AN AVERAGE FLOOD
POTENTIAL OR A NORMAL PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE FOR
MAINLY MINOR FLOODING EXISTS ELSEWHERE. FLOODING IN THIS REGION
OCCURS MAINLY DUE TO CONDITIONS OF GROUND MOISTURE...RIVER
FLOWS...AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. SNOWMELT AND ICE JAMS ARE
USUALLY NOT A FACTOR IN FLOODING IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PADUCAH (ALL LOWER CASE)
$$