HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 800 AM MST FRIDAY MARCH 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER ABOVE PUEBLO IS AVERAGE... ...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IS BELOW AVERAGE...
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 10 2006 THROUGH JUNE 22 2006.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THAT THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS BETWEEN MARCH 10 AND JUNE 22 2006. EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5.0 FEET. THROUGH JUNE 22 2006...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 4.1 FEET.
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
ARKANSAS RIVER LEADVILLE 5.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 SALIDA 9.0 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.7 WELLSVILLE 9.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.6 PARKDALE 9.0 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.4 CANON CITY 9.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.8 PORTLAND 9.0 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.8 PUEBLO 8.0 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.5 6.7 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.1 AVONDALE 7.0 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.3 5.5 6.0 6.3 6.6 9.3 NEPESTA 16.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.0 15.1 OLNEY SPRINGS 8.0 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.7 5.9 6.1 8.3 ROCKY FORD 10.0 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8 6.3 LA JUNTA 10.0 6.7 7.3 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.5 11.6 LAMAR 11.0 6.0 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.8 10.4
FOUNTAIN CREEK COLORADO SPRINGS 8.0 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.2 FOUNTAIN 8.0 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.6 7.9 PINON 7.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.9 6.0 PUEBLO 10.0 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.7 6.7
ST CHARLES RIVER VINELAND 12.0 3.0 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.3 5.1 5.8 6.3 10.7
PURGATOIRE RIVER MADRID 6.0 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 TRINIDAD RSVR 10.0 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.9 TRINIDAD 11.0 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.6 4.1 LAS ANIMAS 9.0 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.0 7.1 7.6 9.9
IN THE TABLE BELOW...PEAK FLOWS FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF SEASON ARE INDICATED ALONG WITH THE PERIOD IN WHICH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FLOWS ARE INDICATED IN CUBIC FEET PER SECOND (CFS). FOR EXAMPLE... THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AT DEL NORTE IS FORECAST TO HAVE A PEAK FLOW OF 2000 TO 4000 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND (CFS) SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD EARLY MAY TO MID JUNE.
LOCATION PEAK FLOW (CFS) PERIOD OF PEAK FLOW
RIO GRANDE RIO GRANDE RESERVOIR INFLOW 600- 1200 CFS EARLY MAY - MID JUNE WAGON WHEEL GAP 1500- 3000 CFS " " DEL NORTE 2000- 4000 CFS " " MONTE VISTA 800- 2000 CFS " " ALAMOSA 500- 1500 CFS " " NEAR LA SAUSES 200- 1400 CFS " " NEAR LOBATOS 200- 1500 CFS " " SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE SOUTH FORK 200- 1200 CFS EARLY MAY - MID JUNE SAGUACHE CREEK SAGUACHE 50- 250 CFS EARLY MAY - MID JUNE ALAMOSA CREEK TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW 200- 1000 CFS EARLY MAY - MID JUNE CONEJOS RIVER NEAR MOGOTE 800- 1800 CFS MID MAY - MID JUNE NEAR LA SAUSES 200- 1200 CFS " " SAN ANTONIO RIVER NEAR MANASSA 100- 500 CFS LATE APRIL - LATE MAY CULEBRA CREEK CULEBRA 100- 300 CFS MID MAY - MID JUNE
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS SPRING AND SUMMER...FROM SNOWMELT ALONE...IS AVERAGE ABOVE SALIDA AND BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH OF SALIDA. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS SPRING AND SUMMER...FROM SNOWMELT ALONE...IS BELOW AVERAGE. ANY FLOODING...IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE BUT SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE. THIS ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND AN OUTLOOK OF WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. IF UNUSUALLY WARM OR WET WEATHER DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION DURING THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF PERIOD...THEN MUCH MORE SEVERE FLOODING COULD OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION HAS RANGED FROM NEAR AVERAGE OVER THE ARKANSAS HEADWATERS ABOVE SALIDA...TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE ELSEWHERE.
SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS IS HIGHLY VARIABLE...RANGING FROM ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN NORTH OF SALIDA...TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN SOUTH OF SALIDA AND IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN. IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...THE SNOWPACK IS AT 113% OF AVERAGE IN THE HEADWATERS NORTH OF SALIDA. SOUTH OF SALIDA...THE SNOWPACK RANGES FROM JUST 34% OF AVERAGE IN THE CUCHARAS AND HUERFANO BASINS...TO A MERE 10% OF AVERAGE IN THE PURGATOIRE BASIN. IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...THE SNOWPACK IS MORE UNIFORM...RUNNING AROUND 40 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL.
STREAMFLOW IS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE IN THE ARKANSAS AND RIO GRANDE BASINS. SOIL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE. OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO RUN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. AT THE END OF FEBRUARY...STORAGE IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN WAS AT 65% OF AVERAGE...WHILE STORAGE IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WAS AT JUST 72% OF AVERAGE.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL AND MAY...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE BELOW AVERAGE.
THE PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THIS OUTLOOK ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT SNOW COVER... STREAMFLOW...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS).
THE IS THE ONLY SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR 2006. UPDATED OUTLOOKS MAY BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR UNDER THIS SAME PRODUCT NAME AND HEADING.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUB FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
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LW