HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1043 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
...FLOOD POTENTIAL WELL BELOW AVERAGE AREAWIDE FOR THIS SPRING...
EASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS WINTER OF 2005 AND 2006 AS WELL AS THE PRECEDING DRY AUTUMN OF 2005. ONLY HURRICANE RITA PROVIDED WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL WAY BACK DURING SEPTEMBER 24TH. RAINFALL DID RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA DURING FEBRUARY OF 2006...HOWEVER...FURTHER WEST INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL CONTINUED AND MAINTAINED EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WITH DEFICITS RANGING FROM ONE FOOT TO UPWARDS OF TWO FEET SINCE THE BEGINNING OF MAY OF 2005 RESULTED IN RIVERS...LAKES...AND BAYOUS RECEDING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS AND DISCHARGES AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT 2005 AND INTO 2006. THE RED RIVER AT FULTON ARKANSAS CONTINUED TO RECORD SOME TWO TO FOUR PERCENT OF NORMAL DISCHARGE AND REMAINS IN THE NEGATIVE STAGE TERRITORY FOR THE TENTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH. ALL EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW THEIR COLLECTIVE CONSERVATION POOL STAGES AS WELL. ONLY LAKES AND RESERVOIRS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL POOL STAGES WITH TIMELY AND ABOVE NORMAL FEBRUARY RAINFALL.
WITHOUT TIMELY AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS SPRING...WATER SHORTAGES BECOME A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY BY LATE SUMMER AND AUTUMN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE HIGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MONTHS. FORTUNATELY...SHORT TERM ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE PROSPECTS IMPROVED DURING FEBRUARY BUT CONTINUED TIMELY AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS NECESSARY TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN AGRICULTURAL PROSPECTS FOR THIS SUMMER.
UNFORTUNATELY...LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS WELL THROUGHOUT THIS SPRING. IN GENERAL...LA NINA PRODUCES NEAR NORMAL SPRINGTIME RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA...BUT BELOW NORMAL SUMMER RAINFALL AND MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS DURING SUMMERTIME.
THIS SUMMARY DESCRIBES CONDITIONS IN THE FOUR MAIN BASINS OF THE SHREVEPORT HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA AND INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING: RED RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES...OUACHITA RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES...SABINE RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES...AND NECHES-ANGELINA RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES.
...RED RIVER BASIN... EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES IN THE RED RIVER BASIN ABOVE FULTON ARKANSAS. ALL RESERVOIRS IN THE RED RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MILLWOOD AND THE TRI-LAKES OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS (GILLHAM...DE QUEEN..AND DIERKS LAKES) REMAIN WELL BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE CONSERVATION POOL STAGES. THE FULL FLOOD CONTROL CAPACITY OF THE ENTIRE RED SYSTEM REMAINS AVAILABLE FOR USE IN THE INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY EVENT THIS DRY PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSFORMS TO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS SPRING. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BELOW FULTON ARKANSAS THROUGH SIMMESPORT LOUISIANA...MOISTURE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY WITH STREAMFLOWS ONLY FIVE TO TEN PERCENT OF NORMAL. FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE RED RIVER BASIN THIS SPRING REMAINS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
...OUACHITA RIVER BASIN... ALTHOUGH THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR ERASED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE OUACHITA RIVER BASIN (EXCEPT FOR THE HEADWATERS AREA WHERE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES)...WELL BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS OF FIVE TO FIFTEEN PERCENT CONTINUE ON THE OUACHITA RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. LAKES AND RESERVOIRS TO THE OUACHITA RIVER'S TRIBUTARIES HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR THEIR CONSERVATION POOL STAGES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE OUACHITA RIVER BASIN REMAINS WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS SPRING.
...SABINE RIVER BASIN... EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SABINE RIVER BASIN OF EASTERN TEXAS. ALL RESERVOIRS IN THE BASIN REMAIN WELL BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE CONSERVATION POOL STAGES AND WITH CONTINUED NEAR RECORD LOW STREAMFLOWS AND STAGES ON THE SABINE RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES (ONLY FIVE TO TEN PERCENT OF AVERAGE AT BEST)...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS SPRING REMAINS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
...NECHES-ANGELINA RIVER BASIN... MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NECHES RIVER MAINSTEM AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE ANGELINA RIVER BASIN AND ITS MAIN TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS ATTOYAC AND AYISH BAYOUS...STREAMFLOWS AND STAGES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL. WITH LAKES AND RESERVOIRS IN THE BASIN REMAINING WELL BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE CONSERVATION POOL STAGES...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS SPRINGTIME REMAINS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
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ROSS SERVICE HYDROLOGIST WFO SHREVEPORT LA