HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
831 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2006
SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2
THIS SPRING SNOWMELT FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TOPEKA HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE KANSAS RIVER...MARAIS DES CYGNES
RIVER...NEOSHO RIVER...AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS.
OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED
NOTICE OF POSSIBLE SNOWMELT FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL
MOISTURE...SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE...AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE
OUTLOOK IS ISSUED. OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. THUS...IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT
NORMAL...THEN THE MAGNITUDE OF FLOODING EXPERIENCED WILL DIFFER FROM
THIS OUTLOOK.
OUTLOOK: DUE TO A LACK OF SNOW IN THE ABOVE WATERSHEDS...NO FLOODING
DUE TO SNOWMELT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL AT ANY TIME
CAN LEAD TO FLOODING...EVEN WHEN THE SNOWMELT FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A STREAM COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE TURKEY CREEK AT SENECA
8NW HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 21 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 14.2 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID TO MAY 25 2006
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
TURKEY CREEK
SENECA 8NW 21 3.9 5.7 7.1 8.1 8.7 10.7 12.2 14.2 17.3
COTTONWOOD RIVER
EMPORIA 20 3.9 5.5 6.3 6.9 8.5 12.2 17.7 21.4 24.7
NEOSHO RIVER
AMERICUS 26 5.5 6.8 7.6 9.9 11.3 12.4 15.3 23.7 26.6
EMPORIA 19 10.3 10.8 11.2 12.5 12.8 13.3 14.5 19.6 23.9
NEOSHO RAPIDS 22 3.9 5.2 6.4 7.0 8.4 12.0 15.1 18.9 25.1
BURLINGTON 27 8.7 10.9 12.0 13.3 14.9 17.4 17.6 18.5 19.2
LEROY 23 7.1 10.1 11.0 12.5 15.2 16.3 16.9 17.7 19.5
RECENT CONDITIONS: TEMPERATURES DURING MARCH HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL....WHILE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL.
PRESENT CONDITIONS: THERE IS NO SNOW ACROSS THE TOPEKA HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOIL MOISTURE IS BELOW NORMAL...AND THE
FLOW IN AREA STREAMS IS BELOW NORMAL.
FUTURE CONDITIONS: THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR BOTH ABOVE AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MONTHS OF MARCH...APRIL...AND
MAY...THERE IS AN EQUAL PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH..APRIL..AND MAY
IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED ON FRIDAY MARCH 24 2006...IF WARRANTED. VISIT OUR HOME PAGE
AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP/ FOR MORE WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION.
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PREDMORE