Skip Navigation Link www.nws.noaa.gov  
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Hydrology Laboratory
   
Local forecast by
"City, St"

 
Short Course
on Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Forecasting
Sponsored by the American Meteorological Society's Hydrology Committee
January 13, 2002
Orlando, Florida

Instructors
Richard Fulton
Hydrology Laboratory
Office of Hydrologic Development
National Weather Service
Silver Spring, Maryland

Norman W. Junker
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Nat'l Center for Environmental Prediction
National Weather Service
Camp Springs, Maryland

Dr. Roderick A. Scofield
Office of Research and Applications
National Environmental Satellite,
Data, and Information Service
Camp Springs, Maryland

Matthew Kelsch
Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training
University Corp. for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, Colorado

8:00 a.m. Introduction of Instructors and Students
8:15 a.m. Overview of operational rainfall estimation procedures - .pdf (Fulton)
 
  • Precipitation Processing System (PPS)
  • Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE)
  • Stage IV Precipitation Processing
8:45 a.m. Scientific techniques for estimating precipitation - .zip (Fulton)
Note: This file has been compressed due to its original size (46MB). Download this to a drive with sufficient space and view locally. No de-compression software is needed, file is self-executing.
 
  • Rain gauges
    • Analysis techniques
    • Challenges
  • Radar
    • Measuring drop size distributions
    • Reflectivity and polarimetric rain rate estimation techniques
    • Quality control techniques for blockage, hail, anomalous propagation, clutter
    • Correcting for range-dependent biase
9:45 a.m. Coffee break
10:00 a.m. Improving radar rainfall estimates using rain gauges and satellite data - .exe (Fulton)
Note: This file has been compressed due to its original size (32MB). Download this to a drive with sufficient space and view locally. No de-compression software is needed, file is self-executing.
 
  • Mosaicking of radar rainfall products
  • Correction techniques for mean-field and local biases
  • Multisensor merging techniques
  • Use of multisensor rainfall products in operational hydrologic models
10:30 a.m. Review of operational satellite rainfall estimation algorithms (Scofield)
 
  • Auto-estimator
  • GOES Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm
  • Interactive Flash Flood Analyzer
  • Passive microwave techniques
12:00 p.m. Lunch break
1:00 p.m. Introduction to quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) (Junker)
 
  • Overview of the QPF problem
  • What determines the amount of precipitation that falls over a given area
  • How the parameterization of physical processes can impact precipitation forecasts
    • Probabilistic methods
    • statistical methods
    • ensemble techniques
2:00 p.m. Factors determining efficiency and rainfall intensity (Kelsch)
 
  • Precipitation intensity and duration
  • Precipitation efficiency
  • Warm versus cold rain processes
3:00 p.m. Coffee break
3:15 p.m. Forecasting precipitation associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCS): Part I (Junker)
 
  • Factors that determine:
    • mode of development
    • precipitation distribution within the MCS
    • scale of a convective system
4:15 p.m. Forecasting precipitation associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCS): Part II (Junker)
 
  • Predicting the movement of convective systems
    • movement versus propagation
    • operational techniques
  • Where does the heaviest rainfall typically occur in relationship to various parameters
  • How well can we predict the precipitation from an MCS
5:15 p.m. Calibration of forecasts (Junker)
 
  • Importance of verification
5:30 p.m. Short course ends.



Main Link Categories:
Home | OHD | NWS

US Department of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
Office of Hydrologic Development
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910

Page Author: OHD webmaster
Page last modified: November 1, 2011
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities