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Short
Course
on Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Forecasting
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Sponsored
by the American Meteorological Society's Hydrology Committee
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January
13, 2002
Orlando, Florida
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Instructors
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Richard
Fulton
Hydrology Laboratory
Office of Hydrologic Development
National Weather Service
Silver Spring, Maryland
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Norman W. Junker
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Nat'l Center for Environmental Prediction
National Weather Service
Camp Springs, Maryland
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Dr. Roderick A.
Scofield
Office of Research and Applications
National Environmental Satellite,
Data, and Information Service
Camp Springs, Maryland
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Matthew Kelsch
Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training
University Corp. for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, Colorado
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| 8:00
a.m. |
Introduction
of Instructors and Students |
| 8:15
a.m. |
Overview
of operational rainfall estimation procedures - .pdf (Fulton) |
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- Precipitation Processing
System (PPS)
- Multisensor Precipitation
Estimator (MPE)
- Stage IV Precipitation
Processing
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| 8:45
a.m. |
Scientific
techniques for estimating precipitation - .zip (Fulton)
Note: This file has been compressed
due to its original size (46MB). Download this to a drive with sufficient
space and view locally. No de-compression software is needed, file is self-executing. |
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- Rain gauges
- Analysis techniques
- Challenges
- Radar
- Measuring drop
size distributions
- Reflectivity
and polarimetric rain rate estimation techniques
- Quality control
techniques for blockage, hail, anomalous propagation, clutter
- Correcting
for range-dependent biase
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| 9:45
a.m. |
Coffee
break |
| 10:00
a.m. |
Improving
radar rainfall estimates using rain gauges and satellite data -
.exe (Fulton)
Note: This file has been compressed
due to its original size (32MB). Download this to a drive with sufficient
space and view locally. No de-compression software is needed, file is self-executing.
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- Mosaicking of radar
rainfall products
- Correction techniques
for mean-field and local biases
- Multisensor merging
techniques
- Use of multisensor
rainfall products in operational hydrologic models
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| 10:30
a.m. |
Review
of operational satellite rainfall estimation algorithms (Scofield) |
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- Auto-estimator
- GOES Multispectral
Rainfall Algorithm
- Interactive Flash
Flood Analyzer
- Passive microwave
techniques
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| 12:00
p.m. |
Lunch
break |
| 1:00
p.m. |
Introduction
to quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) (Junker) |
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- Overview of the
QPF problem
- What determines
the amount of precipitation that falls over a given area
- How the parameterization
of physical processes can impact precipitation forecasts
- Probabilistic
methods
- statistical
methods
- ensemble techniques
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| 2:00
p.m. |
Factors
determining efficiency and rainfall intensity (Kelsch) |
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- Precipitation
intensity and duration
- Precipitation efficiency
- Warm versus cold
rain processes
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| 3:00
p.m. |
Coffee
break |
| 3:15
p.m. |
Forecasting
precipitation associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCS): Part I
(Junker) |
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- Factors that determine:
- mode of development
- precipitation
distribution within the MCS
- scale of a
convective system
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| 4:15
p.m. |
Forecasting
precipitation associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCS): Part II
(Junker) |
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- Predicting the
movement of convective systems
- movement versus
propagation
- operational
techniques
- Where does the
heaviest rainfall typically occur in relationship to various parameters
- How well can we
predict the precipitation from an MCS
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| 5:15
p.m. |
Calibration
of forecasts (Junker) |
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- Importance of verification
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| 5:30
p.m. |
Short
course ends. |
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www.nws.noaa.gov
