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Team Charter for Experimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS) Design and Gap Analysis


Objective: Carry out:

  • Design of the Experimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS),
  • Gap analysis of existing data, science, techniques, tools, and software, and
  • Planning of development and implementation achievable within 2 years.

As the baseline prototype system, XEFS should:

  • Operationally serve the RFCs as an interim ensemble forecasting capability,
  • Provide an ensemble forecasting infrastructure common to both OHD and RFCs to develop requirements and operations concepts, identify areas of need and potential science enhancements, and assess value and performance of additional capabilities and features, and
  • Expedite maturation of system components that can be readily transitioned to operations within 2 years of implementation of the Service Oriented Architecture.

While XEFS is not expected to comprise all major functionalities desirable in a hydrologic ensemble forecast system in order to fast-track development and implementation, it should be extensible to allow data assimilation, distributed modeling and other capabilities as future enhancements. For flexibility and transparency necessary for efficient joint development by OHD and RFCs, XEFS should be open and modular. While the primary thrust of XEFS is on providing ensemble forecasting capability for daily short-term (Day 1~14) forecasting operations at the RFCs using lumped models, as an integrated ensemble forecast system XEFS should also be able to support seamlessly long-term (~1yr) ensemble forecasting and appropriately leverage climate forecast information. The gap analysis should include identification and assessment of existing capabilities, identification of the needs to realize XEFS, identification and prioritization of the gaps, assessment of current resources available for gap-closing, and approximate cost of additional gap-closing measures.

The team will:

  • Design XEFS, based on the short-term ensemble CONOPS developed jointly by DSST and OHD, and expert knowledge and opinions of the team members,
  • Carry out gap analysis for development and implementation of XEFS,
  • Recommend specific gap-closing measures, and
  • Develop project plan for XEFS development and implementation achievable within 2 years.

It is understood that the process of developing the XEFS will be evolutionary and that the project plan must have the flexibility to identify new requirements and shift emphasis and workload as deemed appropriate.

Scope and Authority:

  • Recommendations must be readily actionable by OHD and the participating RFCs, leading to formation of the joint development team and kick-off of its activities immediately following this team's activities.
  • Analysis must be objective.
  • Basis for decisions will be decided on by the team.
  • Staff time is expected to be approximately 1 day per week.
  • Travel expenses, if needed, may be covered by a combination of OHD and the team member's organization.

Termination Date: The team will be formed and commence activities in late Dec 2006 and remain in place for a period of up to 3 months.

Success Criteria: An agreed-to design and development plan for XEFS that provides a clear pathway for the implementation within 2 years.

Membership: The team will be made of the following individuals. The team mentor will be Gary Carter. Additional personnel from the RFCs, NWS Regions or Headquarters may participate as consultants.

Team Members

Robert Hartman CNRFC Team Co-Leader
Dong-Jun Seo OHD/HSMB Team Co-Leader
Bill Lawrence ABRFC Team Member
Steve Shumate CBRFC Team Member
Joe Ostrowski MARFC Team Member
John Halquist NCRFC Team Member
Chris Dietz OHD/HSEB Team Member
Mary Mullusky OCWWS/HSD Team Member


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Office of Hydrologic Development
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Page last modified: May 3, 2011
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