HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
100 PM MST FRI FEB 4 2005
   

WATER SUPPLY FORECAST NEWS RELEASE FOR NEW MEXICO

THIS IS A COORDINATED RELEASE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
THE USDA NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE.

THE WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE SPRING SNOW MELT
SEASON RANGES FROM BELOW NORMAL FLOW VOLUME IN THE ZUNI AND BLUEWATER
BASINS AND NEAR NORMAL FLOW IN THE JEMEZ RIVER...TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FLOW VOLUME IN THE GILA BASIN.

FORECAST FLOWS ON THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDE 127 PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO
COCHITI LAKE AND 118 PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO ELEPHANT BUTTE LAKE.
OTHER RESERVOIR FORECAST INFLOWS RANGE FROM 113 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
CONCHAS LAKE... 116 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR EL VADO LAKE...AND 121
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR SANTA ROSA LAKE.

NAVAJO RESERVOIR IS EXPECTING 154 PERCENT OF NORMAL INFLOW...WHILE
FLOW IN THE ANIMAS RIVER IS FORECAST AT 136 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FLOW
FROM STREAMS ORIGINATING IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF NEW
MEXICO AND FEEDING INTO THE RIO GRANDE SHOULD RANGE FROM 90 TO 135
PERCENT OF NORMAL. 

PRECIPITATION DURING JANUARY 2005 RANGED FROM ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR
RECORD AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH. ALBUQUERQUE RECORDED ITS SECOND WETTEST
JANUARY EVER...WHILE CHAMA REPORTED ITS FOURTH WETTEST JANUARY ON
RECORD AND WETTEST JANUARY SINCE 1980. SEASONAL PRECIPITATION...
OCTOBER 2004 THROUGH JANUARY 2005...RANGES FROM NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
ZUNI...BLUEWATER...AND PUERCO BASINS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SEASONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH JANUARY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURVEYS BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURES NATURAL RESOURCES
CONSERVATION SERVICE INDICATE THAT SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IN THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN AS OF FEBRUARY 1 WAS 112 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 143
PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO. IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN THE SNOWPACK WATER
CONTENT WAS 165 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND 152 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL OF
FEBRUARY 1 2004.

LOOKING AT HISTORICAL FEBRUARY 1 SNOWPACK AMOUNTS IN THE NEW MEXICO
PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN GOING BACK TO 1995...THE 2005 TOTAL
RANKS AS THE THIRD BEST OF THE PAST 11 YEARS. THE BEST FEBRUARY
SNOWPACK YEARS WERE 1997 AND 1995 WHILE THE WORST WERE 2000 AND 1996.

IN THE COLORADO PORTION OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN... SNOWPACK
WATER CONTENT AS OF FEBRUARY 1 2005 WAS 155 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
147 PERCENT OF ONE YEAR AGO.

NEW MEXICO RESERVOIR STORAGE RANGES FROM BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL. IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STORAGE IS 29 PERCENT OF THE 1971
TO 2000 NORMAL AND 106 PERCENT OF LAST YEARS STORAGE AT THIS TIME.
IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN...NAVAJO RESERVOIR STORAGE HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS TIME LAST YEAR. NAVAJO RESERVOIR STORAGE IS
82 PERCENT OF THE 30 YEAR NORMAL...AND 145 PERCENT OF THE STORAGE OF
ONE YEAR AGO.

THIS WATER SUPPLY FORECAST REFLECTS CONDITIONS AS OF EARLY FEBRUARY
2005 AND ASSUMES NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS SPRING.

                   SNOW COURSE READINGS AS OF FEBRUARY 1 2005
                                   OBSERVED      1971-2000 AVERAGE
                                WATER CONTENT      WATER CONTENT
                                    INCHES           INCHES
                                                      

CHAMITA SNOTEL                        8.6              6.7   
RED RIVER SNOTEL                      6.1              5.0   
CUMBRES TRESTLE SNOTEL               22.1             16.0   
WOLF CREEK SUMMIT SNOTEL             33.7             20.1
   

EAP