HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 1030 AM MST FRI FEB 25 2005
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING IS AVERAGE... ...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE SPRING RUNOFF PERIOD...
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM FEBRUARY 25, 2005 THROUGH MARCH 11, 2005.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5.0 FEET. IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 3.8 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID 2/24/2005 - 6/23/2005
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
ARKANSAS RIVER LEADVILLE 5.0 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 SALIDA 9.0 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.3 WELLSVILLE 9.0 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.2 PARKDALE 9.0 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.7 CANON CITY 9.0 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.2 9.3 PORTLAND 9.0 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.6 5.7 6.2 6.3 PUEBLO 8.0 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.5 6.7 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.1 AVONDALE 7.0 3.6 4.2 4.8 5.3 5.4 6.0 6.4 6.6 9.2 NEPESTA 16.5 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.0 15.0 OLNEY SPRINGS 8.0 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.2 8.2 ROCKY FORD 10.0 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.8 6.3 LA JUNTA 10.0 6.6 7.7 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.3 11.3 LAMAR 11.0 6.2 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.2 9.0 10.4
FOUNTAIN CREEK COLORADO SPRINGS 8.0 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.4 FOUNTAIN 8.0 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.5 8.3 PINON 9.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.8 5.9 PUEBLO 10.0 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.8 6.9
ST CHARLES RIVER VINELAND 12.0 3.0 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.4 5.2 5.9 6.3 10.8
PURGATOIRE RIVER MADRID 6.0 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.7 TRINIDAD RSVR 10.0 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.9 TRINIDAD 11.0 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.1 LAS ANIMAS 9.0 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.4 7.4 8.3 10.5
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS SPRING AND SUMMER...FROM SNOWMELT ALONE...IS ABOUT AVERAGE. ANY FLOODING...IF IT DOES OCCUR...IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE BUT SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE. THIS ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND AN ASSUMPTION OF NEAR NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. IF AN ABNORMALLY WARM OR WET WEATHER PATTERN WERE TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF PERIOD...THEN MUCH MORE SEVERE FLOODING COULD OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER SO FAR HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... RANGING FROM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER PORTIONS THE EASTERN PLAINS...TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. PRECIPITATION HAS RANGED FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...TO BELOW NORMAL OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS.
SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS IS RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH THE UPPER ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTING 111% OF NORMAL SNOWPACK...AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN REPORTING 153% OF NORMAL SNOWPACK.
STREAMFLOW IS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...THE PURGATOIRE BASIN...AND THE FOUNTAIN CREEK BASIN...BUT IS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN. SOIL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH THE GREATEST SURPLUS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PLAINS. ALTHOUGH RESERVOIR STORAGE LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...OVERALL STORAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO RUN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. AT THE END OF JANUARY...STORAGE IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN WAS AT 63% OF AVERAGE... WHILE STORAGE IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WAS AT JUST 49% OF AVERAGE.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL AND MAY FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THE PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THIS OUTLOOK ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT SNOW COVER... STREAMFLOW...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS).
THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON MARCH 11TH.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pub FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
LW