HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1050 AM MST FRI FEB 25 2005

...SPRING 2005 WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO 
AND EASTERN UTAH...

THIS OUTLOOK REFERS TO THE UPPER COLORADO, YAMPA, WHITE, GUNNISON, 
AND DOLORES RIVERS IN WESTERN COLORADO, THE SAN JUAN RIVER IN 
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH, AND THE LOWER GREEN RIVER AND 
ITS TRIBUTARIES IN EASTERN UTAH.

IN WESTERN COLORADO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2005 FLOODING DUE TO 
SNOWMELT IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ROARING FORK...GUNNISON... 
DOLORES...AND SAN JUAN RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES.

IN EASTERN UTAH...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2005 FLOODING DUE TO 
SNOWMELT IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DUCHESNE RIVER AND THE OTHER RIVERS 
OF THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS.

ELSEWHERE, BASED ON CURRENT SNOW CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR 
SPRING FLOODING IS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED TO GIVE ADVANCED NOTICE OF 
POSSIBLE FLOODING. OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE, SNOWPACK 
MAGNITUDE, AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. FORECASTS ARE 
ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. THUS, IF 
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL, THE ACTUAL RIVER 
CONDITIONS MAY DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK.

SHOULD WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 
SNOW-BUILDING SEASON, THE CHANCES OF SPRINGTIME FLOODING WILL  
INCREASE. 

GENERALLY, THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK PEAKS AROUND MID TO LATE APRIL. IF 
THE SEASONAL PEAKS OCCUR AFTER THIS PERIOD, THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE 
THE CHANCES FOR SPRING FLOODING.

SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE 2005 WATER YEAR, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN 
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. IN WESTERN COLORADO, ONLY THE YAMPA AND 
WHITE RIVER BASINS HAVE RECEIVED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION (92%) 
THIS WATER YEAR. ELSEWHERE, SEASONAL PRECIPITATION FROM OCTOBER 2004 
THROUGH FEBRUARY 2005 RANGED FROM 100% OF AVERAGE OVER THE COLORADO 
RIVER BASIN TO 138% OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER RIO GRAND RIVER BASIN.

IN EASTERN UTAH...WATER YEAR PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM 145% OF 
NORMAL IN THE GREEN RIVER BASIN TO 158% OF NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST UTAH.

AS OF FEBRUARY, SNOWPACKS IN WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH 
WERE ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL MAJOR RIVER BASINS EXCEPT THE YAMPA/WHITE.

SNOWPACK PERCENTAGES OF NORMAL ON FEBRUARY 25, 2005:

BASIN               %                      
-----              ---      

UPPER COLORADO     100            
GUNNISON           147             
YAMPA/WHITE         89              
UPPER RIO GRANDE   153              
SAN JUAN           156
DUCHESNE           168
GREEN              147
SE UTAH            187       

THE LATEST 30 DAY FORECAST FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH 
CALLS FOR A WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL MARCH. THE CURRENT 90 DAY 
FORECAST FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY ALSO CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED ON MARCH 13, 2005.

AVERY