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Frequently Asked Questions

Climate Prediction Services

This page will attempt to answer common questions relating to NWS climate prediction services. FAQs relating to climate in general, climate data and observations, and climate training can be found by clicking the links on the left or at the bottom of this page.

Is there a glossary of climate terms I can access?
Where can I obtain a release schedule for NWS climate outlooks?
Where can I obtain information on El Niño and La Niña?
What climate forecast products does the NWS produce?
Where can I find longer-term climate predictions?
Are there private companies or organizations that provide climate services?
How accurate are your forecasts?
Is there real value in NWS forecasts?
What is the difference between an "official" and an "experimental" NWS product?
Who can I contact about a Climate Prediction Center product?

Question 1: Is there a glossary of climate terms I can access?

Answer: Click here for the Climate Prediction Center's climate glossary.

Question 2: Where can I obtain a release schedule for NWS climate outlooks?

Answer: The CPC 6-10-day and 8-14-day outlooks are released daily at approximately 3:00PM ET. The U.S. Hazards Assessment is released each Tuesday at approximately 4:00PM ET. The U.S. Drought Monitor is released each Thursday at approximately 8:30AM ET.

The schedule for the release of one-month and three-month outlooks is available by clicking here.

The Atlantic seasonal hurricane outlook is issued in May and updated in August. Watch the NOAA press releases on NOAA's homepage for specific dates.

The U.S. winter outlook is issued in October. Watch the NOAA press releases on NOAA's homepage for a specific date.

Question 3: Where can I obtain information on El Niño and La Niña?

Answer: The Climate Prediction Center maintains an El Niño/La Niña FAQ found here.

You can also click for a description of the global impacts of El Niño and La Niña.

The impacts of El Niño/La Niña on U.S. winter weather can be accessed here.

CPC also has a list of links to El Niño/La Niña information outside NWS found here.

For additional information about El Niño and La Niña, visit NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory's FAQ page by clicking here.

Question 4: What climate forecast products does the NWS produce?

Answer: CPC produces outlooks for temperature and precipitation in the U.S. for time periods of 6-10 days, 8-14 days, one month, and three-month (seasonal) forecasts out to a year in advance. Other products are available for these time periods, including 8-14-day excessive heat outlook, seasonal drought outlook, and heating and cooling degree day outlooks. CPC also issues special outlooks for U.S. winter weather, African seasonal rainfall, and hurricane activity in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific Oceans. Finally, CPC provides expert assessments, including the hazards assessment and drought assessment. Click below for additional information.

ClimateForecasts

Climate Outlooks

Expert Assessments and Special Outlooks

Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts

El Niño/Southern Oscillation Forecast

Question 5: Where can I find longer-term climate predictions?

Answer: NWS provides monthly and seasonal outlooks out to 13 months. For longer-term projections of climate, visit NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory or the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Question 6: Are there private companies or organizations that provide climate services?

Answer: A list of private sector climate service providers is forthcoming. If you are a private sector climate service provider and wish to be included on the list, please click here to notify our customer liaison team. Please include your company name, your name and title within the company, as well as your business address, phone number, fax number, email address, and web site, so that we can provide a complete listing of your information.

Question 7: How accurate are your forecasts?

Answer: The Climate Prediction Center publishes the skill of its three-month (seasonal) outlooks online. The skill for the first season (the 0.5 month lead; for example, the outlook issued in January for February-March-April) is available here.

To see the skill of 3-month outlooks for all lead times up to 12.5 months, click on the X in the “Skill” column next to the lead time in the link found here.

Question 8: Is there real value in NWS forecasts?

Answer: NWS climate predictions have value and application to numerous socio-economic decision-making processes. For example:

• Climate forecasts of temperature variability (especially winter) are used by the energy industry to estimate seasonal demand for heating oil, natural gas, and gasoline. This sector uses these forecasts to plan future inventory levels, optimize advance purchases and distribution of heating fuels, thus increasing business efficiency. Even small percentage efficiency improvements translate into huge savings in a $500 billion per year industry.
• Comparing forecast system costs with anticipated benefits in the U.S. agriculture sector yields an estimated annual rate of return on that investment of between 13 and 26 percent.
• Benefits in U.S. corn industry from just optimizing inventory storage costs could approach $200 million annually.
• The small Northwest coho salmon fishery realizes annual benefits of approximately $250,000 to $1 million from changing hatchery releases and harvest rates.
• Forecasts of the 1997-1998 El Nino resulted in savings of:
  
  Nearly $1.1 billion from reduced storm losses
  $265 - $300 Million in U.S. agriculture
  $10 - $25 Million in Mexican agriculture

Check back soon for a more detailed publication on the value of NWS forecasts.

Question 9: What is the difference between an "official" and an "experimental" NWS product?

Answer: Official products (also known as “operational” products) are those that are produced on a continuous and reliable basis and are defined in NWS policy. Experimental products are those available for testing and evaluation for a specified, limited time period for the purpose of obtaining customer feedback, after which they either may be cancelled or upgraded to official products.

Question 10: Whom can I contact about a Climate Prediction Center product?

Answer: You can contact staff members of the NWS Climate Services Division listed here or contact your local NWS field office.

This page is maintained by NWS/OCWWS Climate Services Division