NOUS41 KWBC 121413
Service Change Notice 11-20
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
1012 AM Thu EDT May 12 2011
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
Other NWS partners and employees
From: Cynthia Abelman Chief, Aviation Services Branch
Subject: Discontinuance of the Experimental Second
Generation National Convective Weather Forecast
(NCWF-2) Effective June 16, 2011.
Effective Thursday June 16, 2011, at 0000 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), the NWS Aviation Weather Center will discontinue production and dissemination of the experimental second generation National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF-2). The current operational first generation National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) product will continue to be available.
NCWF-2 is a probabilistic convective forecast developed through the Federal Aviation Administration Aviation Weather Research Program’s Convective Weather Product Development Team. NCWF-2 is currently available only via a direct feed from the Aviation Weather Center in GRIB1 format using the following experimental headers:
And in BUFR format under JSAT98 KKCI.
Over the past several years, NCWF-2 has been considered for transition from experimental to operational status. As part of this transition process, detailed objective assessments of the forecast quality and performance have been completed. Results of the assessments indicated insufficient reliability and resolution for operational implementation.
Since there are no plans to modify or improve NCWF-2 to achieve operational suitability, and the hardware and software technologies supporting the production of NCWF-2 are becoming obsolete, NWS will discontinue the NCWF-2.
If you have any questions about this change, please contact:
Chief, Aviation Support Branch
Aviation Weather Center
Kansas City, MO 64153
National Technical Implementation Notices are online at: