NOUS41 KWBC 141900



Service Change Notice 16-48

National Weather Service Headquarters, Washington DC

300 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017


To:       Subscribers:

          -NOAA Weather Wire Service

          -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network


          Other NWS Partners and Employees


FROM:     Fiona Horsfall,

          Chief, Climate Services Branch


SUBJECT:  Experimental Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook will become

          Operational effective May 15, 2017


Effective May 15, 2017, the experimental NWS Climate Prediction

Center (CPC) Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook will transition to

operational. This new product closes the gap in the forecast

time scales between the Week 2 and 1-month outlook products that

the CPC issues as part of its seamless suite of outlooks. The

objective of the product is to highlight regions where above or

below average 2-week mean temperature is favored as well as

provide advance notice of potential temperature pattern changes

to further assist decision makers in weather and climate

sensitive activities in their decisions. 


The audience for this product includes


- NWS local and regional field structure

- Local, state, regional and national government entities

  (emergency management and planning)

- Private sector (energy, water resource management, financial,

  and other industries)

- General public and others.


The Weeks 3-4 temperature outlook maps consist of two categories

(above or below average). The shading depicts the favored

category, either above average (A) or below average (B) for 

2-week mean temperature with the solid contour lines giving the

probability (>50 percent) of this more likely category (above or

below). In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean

temperature are similar to climatological probabilities and a

category cannot be favored, equal chances (EC: 50 percent

probability for each category) is indicated. In addition, a text

prognostic map discussion will be provided explaining the

rationale behind the forecast. Outlook updates will be provided

weekly on Friday.


Further information on the Weeks 3-4 temperature outlook can be

found in the Product Description Document located at: Outlooks.pdf


The Week 3-4 temperature outlooks can be accessed at:


For more information, please contact:


Jon Gottschalck

Chief, Operational Prediction Branch

NWS / Climate Prediction Center

College Park, MD

Telephone:  301-683-3349



National Public Information Statements are online at: